Member Info for adoubleuk

feelinlucky,

"the only clue that could be indicating size of discovery prior to testing would be communication between wells."

Most sensible thing I've seen written here today. Hmmm... And Lincoln was suspended with pressure-gauges installed. Double hmmmm.....

JB,

"There is a need to explore who the sellers and buyers really are in that area."

Yes, sure. But the thing is, of course there's going to be a market for those couple of billion barrels of oil, no matter how many Swedish schoolgirls skip school to turn themselves into celebrities. But that's not the bottom line, or at least not for me. What interests me personally is who's going to come queuing up and banging on my front door, offering me One pound Twenty for my Hurricane shares? None yet that I can see or hear.

petethestreet,

Thanks for passing on that ADVFN poster's comments. Which are worthwhile, and presented well. One little excerpt: "Don't need Warwick or Lincoln to deliver on this statement, they are just the icing on the cake. "

Yes. But nevertheless there's an implicit corollary to that. That being, what's going to happen with Lancaster even when the CPR and 'news' regarding the EPS emerges? The point being, the 'big boys', whether they be investment houses or a major oil company, are already privvy to far more data and hard facts than we scribblers on this BB can hope to be. And I strongly suspect that if they were going to 'make a move' they'd already have done so by now.

Hurricane as a company has already changed, because ipso facto it's become an oil-production firm, not simply a marginal exploration outfit pushing weird frontiers as was the case a few years ago.

And this is why I take the share analysts' forecasts with a huge pinch of salt, these days. Because it doesn't really matter how many billions of barrels of oil lie below Rona Ridge, Hurricane Energy will never become part of the 'Big Seven', so there's no reason to believe the SP will rise to match that of Shell or BP or Total.

HH,

"are we both in agreement then with the general philosophy of negative effect that such infill would have ...."

Yes. ;-)

Hey! HeidHoncho! If you're still online.

This is O/T, but you'r obviously 'oilfield' so must share it with someone.

I was on the blower this evening with another 'oilfield' friend, who's just sat his IADC pressure-control test (an expensive chore, to be done every two years). And there was the following question.

The well kicks, the Driller shuts in, you go to the Floor, and see that the choke panel gauge reads 450 psi, but the Driller's panel gauge reads 650 psi. To calculate kill mud weight do you

(a) Use 450 psi
(b) Use 650 psi
(c) Use 550 psi
(d) Check the gauges before making any calculations

?????

Seemingly the 'correct' answer was (d). !!!!!!!!!!

I think I should come out of retirement and go work for IADC, making up idiocy like that. Just like the sketch I posted the link to in my earlier post.

HH,

""Simplistic gravity would explain that fractures would likely fill up with infill from the bottom up,"

Sorry, my apologies for my last post. I re-read your phrase, and on second reading understood what you were trying to say. And yes, of course, any 'infill' will fall to the lowest available open space. Etc...

HH,

"I don’t readily have to hand, but if anyone else does that would be appreciated, what the formation top depths for the reservoir formations were at both WD and WW."

The term 'formation top' simply doesn't apply in regard to Fractured Basement, or at least in respect to the reservoir section. It's a term to be thrown in the litter-bin and forgotten. FB's a different ballpark completely. Talking 'formation tops' is rather like a golfer teeing-up on the startline of a Formula One racetrack and asking where the green is.

"Simplistic gravity would explain that fractures would likely fill up with infill from the bottom up,"

Not to my mind, it doesn't. If I understand the laws of gravity expressed by the great Sir Isaac Newton (inventor of the catflap), things tend to fall into open spaces from above, not below.

Sorry to sound a bit contrary, but I like a good argument once in a while.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpAvcGcEc0k

DC,

" It does raise the question of whether the result would have been different if they had stayed on target."

Well said, that man. Lack of REAL drilling-related information (until a couple of years later) is a bit frustrating. Sure, nobody wants SOU - like meaningless RNS's, and that some details might be incomprehensible to non - oilfield 'laypersons', which is quite understandable and with no blame attached, but not all of us have just fallen off the back of the pumpkin-truck, neither.

HeidHoncho,

Your post with the 'melon analogy' is too long to pick out particular phrases to quote. But yes, in various ways it works. But nevertheless, to my own pale fawn fluff, it still doesn't properly explain the Warwick Deep 'failure'. I don't want to run back over too much water under the bridge, because it got me into trouble back then, resulting in a sheep - from goats sorting exercise, but there was much correspondence (not neccessarily here) about that well. And not regarding the number of faults / fractures encountered by the bit, but instead, the nature of possible 'fracture infill' that may have been met, possibly difficult to establish while drilling, either through ROP logs or cuttings samples, but sufficient to preclude the oil-in-place to be 'commercially flowable'. It's a theory which I personally think may be correct. But I haven't been in touch with its propounder for a while (no names, no packdrill), and at this particular stage in the game, I prefer to keep my head well below the berm, and not make any potentially incorrect predictions about the outcome of the current well.

And as others here have said, it's quite possible that even if Warwick West turns out to be a resounding success, the SP may not reflect that, for reasons unknown.

Laser,

Good to see you haven't completely deserted LSE!

Writing on phône, so can't quote. But TC at Scrabster loading 'ore' on the 1st? No, not Barite (not used in the fluid at this stage) , nor anything like it.

I'm temted to think that Scrabster's Port Authority might have just hit 'ore' instead of 'sundry materials' on their keyboard!

??

"HUR is certainly suffering from "investor fatigue", that's for sure. " (Quoth Biffa)

"One has just got to treat HUR like any other share, without being joined at the hip with it." (Quoth Daltry)

Both of whom I agree with.

The thing is, though, it's now just a matter of patience. There has already been massive 'institutional investor' input to get the Lancaster EPS up and running. The company has set a sort of deadline (maybe still a few months away) to give a detailed result to everyone about it, and forward projections, so tanker-loads being delivered and a possible good result on Warwick isn't going to cause any of the big money-people to start reaching for their chequebooks tomorrow.

As for PI's? So many have been burned by things like SOU, SXX, Udog and their like, there might not be so many left around to make a difference. :-(

Me? Just holding. Waiting 'til the SP starts with a 5 instead of a 4 before I'll even start searching for where the sell button is. And if I'm dead before then, I guess I won't care anyway, will I?

Heck, the other night I was playing poker at a casino 80 miles away, and didn't play a single hand for an hour and a half, except one where I was 'small blind', a couple of others had 'limped in', and I matched the bet. The 'flop' was dealt, it did me no good, someone raised, another called the raise, so I folded. So I was down about 7% of my initial stake and bored stiff before I was dealt something worthwhile (a pair of queens). So I opened with a substantial raise, expecting the others to fold because I play so 'tight', but no, I got three callers! And (to cut a long story short) won a substantial pot, putting myself about 25% 'up'. Left the table that evening (with no shame despite sour looks from other players, and I'm going there again tonight) 110% up, so not complaining.

Don't want to 'deramp' or anything, but anyone getting into HUR now shouldn't expect some sort of 'five-bagger' or similar unicorn-like stuff. The share has already made me some profit, and I expect a bit more, but nothing that will help me live to be a hundred years old. (Not that that's something I in any way desire, anyway.)

Patience isn't just a virtue, it's a f***in' necessity if you want to make any money honestly, in my experience.

LS,

"Commercial is the keyword here..."

Of course. McDonalds isn't in the business of philanthropically providing cheap hamburgers to people, they're in the business of making money for themselves.. The same goes for oil companies, and it should NEVER be forgotten.

Oh, and politicians, as well.

"the way that Wall Street investment is feeding the shale gas hype is reminiscent of Enron."

It's not 'hype' as such, but a bit 'helicopter-ish'. Oil and big finance are so intertwined now that the one can't perform without the other. Unlike a conventional aeroplane, which can at least glide when the engines flame out.

"Any thoughts on whether the change of CEO at BP could be significant to any future approach to HUR? "

Nope, no idea. Other than I feel that Hurricane is just a blip on BP's radar, from which they're now making a bit of money by marketing the oil from Lancaster. The CEO is probably wondering what new advertising campaign should go on the telly to inform us how 'green' they are than wondering how much oil they can produce.

Biffa (et al)

" I think it's pretty safe to say HUR have a ******* shed load of oil WOS."

Yes. Only an idiot would think otherwise. But does that necessarily mean a rise in the SP ( ie money in my pocket ) as a result once Warwick West comes in or the awaited longterm positive EPS results are published?

I don't know. But it's something which has been playing on my mind of late. As a risk-taking share investor interested in my own bankroll, not as a retired petrolhead oilman interested and extremely impressed by what Dr Trice and his company have done and are doing.

The thing being, Dr T has somewhat opened up a Pandora's Box. Comparable with, but in no way similar to, the 'shale boom' seen in the USA. Comparable because they both show that 'Peak Oil' is an utter myth, and that supply will be able to meet the ever-growing demand until the cows come home, or a stray asteroid hits the planet and wipes us out, or whatever. But completely dissimilar, in that an artificially fractured shale-oil well is expensive to complete and requires constant maintenance through its lifetime to remain 'commercial', a 'Fractured Basement' well doesn't.

The 'naysayers' about FB are a bit like Hoover when Dyson came on the scene. Hoover are quoted as saying that if they'd managed to buy the licence, the Dyson machine would have been put on a shelf and never marketed. Because they'd have lost their real money-maker which keeps their dividend-collecting shareholders happy, which is selling not vacuum-cleaners, but dust-bags.

Dyson is still a good company because they still come up with new things based on clever thinking, like better room-fans (without visible fans), better public toilet hand-dryers, and so on. But oil companies can't do that. All they can produce is oil. Sure, they're different sorts of oil, but the Saudis can't change their reservoirs into 'light sweet' any more than Hurricane can change what's coming from Lancaster into 'heavy sour' like most M.E. stuff.

This is why I'm now watching the SP more than the comings and goings of the supply boats. Times have changed over the last few years, and people like Greta Thumbsuck get more newsprint than someone who's busy proving that the UK could be possibly self-sufficient in hydrocarbon resources without importing product from nations with human-rights histories which are dubious, to say the least.

Which personally I feel is a shame. But 'the market' is what it is, and money and morals usually make uneasy bedfellows.

Cebo,

"Here we go again, a load of complete bluffers hinting that they know how the drill is progressing, guessing when the DST will happen and forecasting the result. ... I will again happily sit tight and wait for the an official RNS confirming a DST has taken place and telling me the result before believing anything written here. "

Likewise. Although I slightly disagree with you about people who suspect the SP is 'manipulated'. If that weren't the case, and instead it were 'news-driven', we ought to have been around the one pound 'brokers' forecast' price at least once by now. But that hasn't happened.

These days I treat any 'technical inside info leaks' here with a pinch of salt, unless from a very good source.

As regards flare and DST (recent posts), yes a brief flame may be seen at the start of DST, but one swallow does not a summer make. It appears that Hurricane initiates DST by 'underbalancing' using a low-density (flammable) fluid, which of course has to be burnt-off on initiation of flow, before having to resort to other means such as nitrogen -lift. But there's a vast difference between such a small flame and a proper flare-off, indicating the well is actually flowing.

Furthermore, even if Warwick West comes in like a train, recent experiences ( 'Spirit Deal', EPS outperforming, Lincoln coming in, etc) have shown that this share is not news-driven nor related to actual performance, so much as I 'love' the Hurricane story (which I'll continue following for a long time yet), I no longer feel 'married' to my long-held shares in the company.

And have ceased taking any notice of 'brokers' ( or so-called expert share analysts') estimates for a while now, and not just in regard to HUR. Because almost without exception they usually seem to be wrong, not to mention being ramping hype, seemingly allowable to themselves, but not to actual private investors.

MCB55,

"Contrary to you, I think a new CPR would cover everything, even though there maybe some parts that do not change due to no real change in data, interpretation or assumptions. Just to give a comprehensive updated overview for all concerned in one document."

OK, I guess we'll have to agree to differ in that case, and see what happens. But the last CPR ( pre 'Spirit Deal') was split into sections, with different publication dates. And now, especially as the 'Spirit Deal' has been done, I believe that CPR's for GLA (EPS) and GWA will be separate, although there will obviously be 'overlap' if Lincoln is going to be tied into the FPSO.

I'd certainly agree with you though in feeling the CPR won't appear in ultra-quick time.

daltry,

"Jimmy no relation to Warren then?"

No, and he sometimes goes to great pains to explain that. However he's a very wealthy man. How many 'rock stars' pilot their own Grumman Albatross flying-boat and are also licenced for twin-engined jets (one of which he also owns)? Jimmy Buffett and the Coral Reefer Band are hugely well-known in the USA, but relatively unheard-of in Europe, where he has rarely toured, at least in the concert-playing sense. Which is a shame, because he's unique.

A lot of oilfield trash know his music, though.

somm,

"So there will have been casing done on the well as it's not only a horizontal well.
Those who were sarcastic must be walking bare foot on hot coals now. Chuckle chuckle..."

I don't remember being sarcastic in my reply to your post. However you sent it AFTER all indications were that drilling had started on the horizontal section, which is completed 'barefoot'.

OF COURSE the rest of the well has been cased, roughly as outlined by 'Wellwell'. It'd be a bloody strange oilwell if it hadn't. But now, there's no more casing required.

MCB55,

"I knew the CPR took quite awhile, but didn’t realise it was 8 mths last time, but as you say should be considerably less this time as it’s an update, albeit a comprehensive one! "

Yes, it did take that long. However this time I suspect that the promised CPR may initially only encompass the Lancaster EPS results, and may (as it has been promised) already have been commissioned, with RPS already receiving data and comparing notes with the company, so may arrive quicker.

This might just be wishful thinking, of course.

JB,

We're obviously the nightbirds here!

I think I posted here in the early hours of yesterday morning about having been at Royan. Well, the place was on the TV news this evening, with footage of sailor-people double-attaching their lines in anticipation of the big storm coming in. And now (in Niort, 50 miles inland) it seems like the weather forecast has been right.

Which reminded me of an appropriate song. Not a video, an early version. But worth a listen for those who wonder about the HUR SP around this time of year...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJFPNPg-d0E

JB,

(It's the weekend, so why not some O/T 'chat'?)

" it may earn you more money in the end than Poker and the hassle of travelling 160 miles, not sure I could do that mileage anymore at my age of 65."

Hey! I'm 65 as well, and positively enjoy hours behind the wheel ( even in filthy weather like this night) when compared with hours in front of a keyboard, working to a deadline.

Chatelaillon (my other regular haunt) is only a 90-mile round trip: I think of it like 'going to work', and like the road, other than an extemely dangerous junction when joining the La Rochelle bypass. Because these days I consider myself a semi-pro poker player, averaging 100 euros an hour at the stakes I play in if I've got my wits about me. Plus in the context I'm in a sort of 'social' setting, whereas writing is a solitary and lonely task, with no immediate evidence one's got it right.

Maybe (were I to be buried when I die, and with a headstone, though that won't be the case), a suitable inscription might be 'Here lies a man who ought to have written a book'.

But I doubt it would ever be a best-seller. Nobody believes what poker-playing oilmen who enjoy caving, truck-racing and beer, anyway.

"When I was working in Aberdeen and on the odd occassion used to fly in the main, driving up from Manchester was a complete and utter nightmare in the winter, could hardly see the road in the dark on the A90 on some stretches, was a very dangerous road imo."

You didn't once work on the Montrose Alpha, did you? I knew someone who regularly did that route.

What time does the rugby-match start?