RE: Voters say no to mining26 Mar 2019 06:58
FTJNY, thanks for posting.
Like you, in an attempt to understand what's going on, I have spent hours scouring the web reading endless articles in obscure publications; but what are the conclusions?
First of all, it would be a mistake for any investor to simply brush these concerns under the carpet. However, it's essential to get a view of the bigger picture. The local elections and the mining referendum in Giron are just that; local elections. We all know that the final decisions with regard to mining lie with the central government, and I would refer you to the announcement made by INV earlier this month on this topic. It must also be borne in mind that the government has staked the country's future on mining and the recent IMF loan was, to a large degree, granted due to promises made about revenues from mining in the coming years. The economic imperative therefore, is huge.
I know many of you will disagree, but my own investment decision here is based upon Cascabel. I regard everything else as a bonus and I'm not attributing much value to the other concessions...just yet. And, as far as I've been able to ascertain, I can find nothing which threatens the Cascabel development. It is not in a protected area and has not been subject to any civil disruptions. Local support appears to be strong. (if anyone can show anything to the contrary, please share it)
Ultimately, it is the perception of the mining majors that really matters. The evidence suggest they have weighed the risk favourably, but I suspect they will be very selective in terms of those projects they back and we are obviously one of them.
Equador isn't suddenly going to turn it's back on the mining industry; it can't afford to. But I think we will continue to see local activism which may spook some investors.
My conclusion is that we may encounter problems in some of our other concessions (even though they are not in protected areas), but that Cascabel looks to be solid and will form part of the overall economic strategy of Equador.