RE: Road show29 Apr 2019 07:43
Neither BHP or Newcrest are in the business of owning small minority positions; they are miners, not financial investors. Their current strategy is to have a significant foot in the door, and in the case of Newcrest, a seat at the table (BHPs failure to nominate someone remains of great significance)
Neither of them will allow NM to go out to market and raise a large amount of equity to fund the development. And simply maintaining their current percentage will be of no interest. They are not going to contribute to a situation whereby they are seen as contributing to a group of financial investors making money are their expense.
Assuming things progress smoothly, they will want all of this. Unless another miner comes along with an absolutely knock-out offer one, or both of them, will end-up owning this company.
And as for the argument that the development can be financed 100% with leverage, I don't buy it. If we take NM's view that it will cost $3bn to construct, at least $1bn will need to come from equity sources, and quite possibly more; which represents massive dilution for current holders. Will NM accept that? I can't see it. Let's say BHP and New agree to provide the funds; will they want existing shareholders to benefit from their largesse? No, they won't. They'll buy us out well before the long term value of the company is realised.
In my view, the outcome here is inevitable, but, as the saying goes, WTFDIK.