Good or bad?16 Jan 2021 07:07
This is a tricky one.
I voted for Mather because I believed he'd do a good job of negotiating a deal - provided he'd been given the right direction by the board, by which I mean he dropped the fanciful notion of taking this to production.
The agm result was, as many of us stated, a real blow for him from which there was no way back. He obviously realised that (unlike some on here) and produced the belated olive branch.
Something has obviously happened in the interim which means BHP/NCM have not accepted the offer of peace talks. (or maybe they've had them and reached no acceptable way forward - which is more likely) I see this as being the catalyst for a board decision which said he must go - I do not believe BHP/NCM had any direct role; rather the board realized he simply cannot get on with them and know that the company needs the support of it's major holders (how many times have I said that?). Anyway, assuming one believes this report, and I do, what's the way forward?
If I were NM I wouldn't want a substantial portion of my wealth being run by someone else and would want to sell. So, will he attempt to sell the company before he's replaced? Or will he negotiate a deal with one or both of the majors for his own holding?
As a separate issue, how many potential ceos would want to take this on, knowing it may be a very short-term appointment? If there was a huge performance related exit bonus, I'd do it.
Is this good news, or bad?
The market hates uncertainty and may mark us down. Conversely, they may realize Mather has been the impediment to doing a deal in anything like the near term and therefore we get marked up. This is impossible to call. But what it will do is present the company as being open to discussions, something Mather has done his best to dismiss for the past 12 months. This will be an sp positive.
Mather's skill set includes bloody-mindedness and determination, but it appears not to include charisma and an ability to get on with key players, which are rather important attributes for a ceo.
So, is this news good or bad? Conclusion: I'm really struggling to make up my mind, but on balance I think it's probably good news. Mind you, if the intention is simply to find another ceo who'll parrot the same old production nonsense, then I'll take a different view.