RE: It seems22 Feb 2021 14:08
The arithmetic is against you. Only 19.65% of shares are held in hands which can be deemed as friendly. This is ranged against 40% (including BR, who I'm sure would side with BHP) which are not in friendly hands (I'm speaking historically, they're probably best of mates now)
Provided BHP and NCM are singing from the same hymn sheet, and why wouldn't they be, it requires only 10% of private investors to jump ship for the game to be over. And the fact is most will jump as soon as they see anything that looks vaguely reasonable. It has nothing to do with the PEA, or anything else, it comes down to hard cash being on the table.
As I said, I don't see this as going hostile, it doesn't need to. It will be an agreed deal and my bet is that it will be Cascabel only.