Member Info for addicknt

Bozi, we don't know what the outcome will be. Keep focused on the asset, but I most certainly understand your frustration.

DS, that post gave me a good chuckle. Someone needs to relieve Q of his shovel.

Understood, Cov.

Jezzoo, yup, First class honours from the elite Alistair Campbell Academy of Misinformation and Obfuscation. Same place our board attended.

Q, I'm afraid your memory of what you said and the facts are a very, very long way apart...and seven thousand-odd posts confirm it.
Oh well, at least you've now come to realize how mistaken you were. Better late than never.

Q, before you sink down the rabbit hole of semantics, I would point to your insistence that we were taking this to production. You consistently stated the 'evidence' was there to support your claim, whereas in fact you were relying on the statements of one person on our board who in turn produced no 'evidence', to use your definition, in support of his argument. It was a wish, a dream, and an unrealistic one at that. There was no funding in place; there was no infrastructure being built; there were no shafts being sunk...you get the picture.
As such, and using the same definition, my argument about the pessimists on here, stands.

Ha! Very good! I think you get my point.

Q, that's the problem, funding is not easily achieved and I can see no reason why a major would accept a minority position.

Got cut off!
Then we have a number of folk who are deeply pessimistic and believe we are on the cusp of giving Cascabel away for nothing. The premise of their argument is that we are in a very weak position, that there are no buyers out there and Caldwell and his mates don't really care about delivering value. They have zero evidence to support this argument.
There are also one or two who think nothing will happen this year, despite the ongoing SR and its delivery within a couple of months.
Then there's the rest, who feel we have an amazing asset which is globally recognised as being important and also know that we have sufficient cash to keep us going for the remainder of the year, thus enabling us to negotiate with a degree of comfort. These people also understand that our recent Chinese investment demonstrates that there are interested parties who clearly rate our business.
So, take your pick, although it remains a mystery to me why anyone who is so downbeat about our prospects would continue to hold.

It appears there's no longer anyone on this bb who thinks we'll take this to production on our own.
One or two people think it's going to end up in a jv and that this is a good thing, despite the fact the economics are likely to look awful and it would not deliver the expectations of Sangha and co.

As much as I don't like this option arrangement, I don't see it as being responsible for the current sp. Just have a look at what's happening in the broader market...there's your explanation.

Bozi, I'm not sure I agree with that. Bear in mind, it appears we've stopped work on the DFS and are undergoing a radical restructuring, which I assume involves laying off staff in Ecuador, as well as at senior level. This doesn't feel like a company which is looking to take this much further.
You're right about having 'maxed out' the royalty route, so one assumes were we to consider taking this further we'd have to continuously tap the capital markets for working capital, which would result in an unacceptable level of dilution - and to what end? It's possible we may be worth a bit more -provided the markets don't mark us down even further - but the dilution would negate the effect for existing shareholders. And I'm not at all convinced we'd find it easy to raise more funds - there's a limit to the jam tomorrow argument. And I really fail to see how a jv meets with the ambitions of Sangha & co.
As I said the other day, the most recent round of funding has a feel of being the last for the company in its current form and it's my belief the new management team knows there's little to be gained by dragging this out for another couple of years, particularly given the obvious risks.
Therefore, I do not see any route to improving value by waiting a couple of years, in fact quite the opposite.

RK, yes, I do, but to clarify, I mean we will not see a hostile bid appear out of the blue. It's perfectly feasible and desirable that one will emerge after we've announced an agreed deal, but that's not the same thing.

Bozi, in my view your argument collapses because we will not be able to take this much further. So as much as I agree it would be more valuable in ten years time when it's producing, the fact is for practical reasons it will never get there under our ownership. This is the issue.

Q, this will never become a hostile situation and the re-balancing of the register makes an agreed deal that much easier.

Bozi, I completely respect your opinions, particularly as they're always very well argued.
On a slightly separate point, looking at the updated share register, we now find ourselves in the position of having 42.7% in 'friendly' hands and 20.7% in what may be described as 'unfriendly' hands, with 36.6% unknown. This is an important shift and in my view makes Caldwell's task easier.

Bozi, I broadly agree with your point about Irwin, but I fail to see how shareholders are responsible for the situation.

Good one Q! Reminds me of Custer's Last Stand. Surrounded by Indians, but determined to go down fighting!

He's simply expressing the same views as many of us long-termers. Combined with Caldwell's statements, we now know just how badly the company has been run - in my book the fraud was a clear indication. The old management team was swept along on a tide of hubris and unrealistic ambitions and we've paid the price.
Caldwell has one task and we need to drop any pretence of remaining owners, or even part owners, of Cascabel. Rightly or wrongly, my view is that the last round of funding was our last throw of the dice - the capital markets must be reaching the limit of their capacity to buy into a dream they've heard too many times. So do us all a favour Mr Caldwell and just sell the thing.

Ship, that's a different question. I would like more clarity and I've made my views on the options perfectly clear. However, I haven't seen anything which is illegal.