RE: Making a bad situation worse12 Oct 2016 21:58
Think you hit the nail on the head there. Lack of information followed by a delayed RNS whatever the content was going to spook the market and it did. The irony is that all the big long-term holders and a lot of PI's are well aware of the inherent risks as DCP clear adjacent old workings to gain access to higher grade K4 kimberlite. The reward is that once in place, production ramp up can start in earnest. The possibility of mud/water ingress was highlighted in the original analysis - DCP encountered it, controlled it, and sealed it. The return air pass is secure and hence no mention needed. It caused unexpected delay but safety was paramount and the challenge met. Now we have potential problems from sidewall friability as K4 is engaged. Safety is still paramount and this possibility was also foreseen in the original survey. It is temporarily slowing progress and that is frustrating, but as long as we maintain an exemplary safety record, the progress continues towards full production. Cash is tight undoubtedly and RNS cost cash so prudence is the key. Should management have kept holders informed? Undoubtedly yes...use the blessed website! By posting a day by day, week by week commentary on progress, whatever the hiccough can easily be put into perspective. So we are now probably going to see 14k tons Oct. Nov, Dec raising to 20k Jan, probably 25k Feb and then running to 30k by end Q1 2017. Had this been delivered as a website blog, it would also be highlighting the rise in cph from July and August 18 to 24 to 29 as K4 came on stream. It would also have indicated the increase in 'special' recovery sizes. This would not breach any confidences as any news really worthy of an RNS eg exceptional stones could be conveyed in the usual manner. Reworking old mines is full of risks and DCP is particularly vulnerable as old work K4 interface risk is higher at this time and cash is critically low BUT, as grade is now showing, the prospect of hitting more significant diamonds, even with a three month 50% reduction in tonnage is looking better. The fall in price seems overdone given the life of mine characteristics and proven provenance. Yes there may indeed be more stumbling blocks, but these are inherent risks in this type of mine. Management have dealt with each problem as it has arisen, preserved safety, sorted it, and gone forward. The 50% production rate may be a disappointment, but the resource is still producing good stones, the rough diamond price is still tracking a yoy high, and the timeframe to full production has only shifted a couple of months. Challenging but not insurmountable - that's why the big holders are staying put. The price should recover with a bridging facility in place given the long term value of the resource. Just wish BoD would use the website for investor relations more proactively.