Member Info for Adastra

Looks like we're in the transition zone where the seller is finally clearing and the MM's are watching closely. The recent buying patterns and slowly rising price seem to indicate that the overhang is clearing and the pressure on the buy side will then increase. I have little doubt that when this becomes apparent (if not already) the MM's will start to accumulate on their books and allow the price to follow its natural course upwards. Give the BoD credit, despite the lows caused by acquisition delays, they have never issued shares below par value 10p. That has been a critical component in my decision to invest, plus the fact that all directors have bought at prices in excess of that 10p. It is significant base value that all the Board see as pivotal. We will see 10p and 10p will be the springboard that signifies 2015 and the vibrant Porta - all IMO but that's the reasoning.

Categorically... Adastra has no inside information.... I should know. 2015 is undoubtedly the year in which Porta swings concretely positive. As I said, I am expecting y/e Dec2014 to show a £0.5m pbt loss purely due to the maiden centralised HO cost of £1m required to house the extended Newgate/PPS/Publicasity team. The 2014 year included PPS and Publicasity for just over a month and so any initial contributions should be minimal BUT...................one thing I have not included is the cash element brought on board at completion. The combined cash was £2m. Now THAT could actually tip 2014 into a pbt PROFIT depending on depreciation/amortisation of existing start-up costs. Interesting times ahead and, as I said, I do expect a string of earnings upgrades as 2015 rolls out. PPS is in the limelight for the 2015 election as it is its real forte and Steve Byfield [who now holds 6% of Porta shares after selling PPS] is highly incentivised to keep it at the forefront of reputation management consultancy.

Sanlam Securities issued their initial coverage of Porta on February 26th 2015. Might I suggest that anyone following or possibly investing in the company watch the video and read the (very positive) comments http://www.stocktube.com/video/sanlam-securities-analyst-tips-porta-communications-shares-to-rise Yes, they are the company broker, but the observations are the most up-to-date and comprehensive we have that have not been issued by DW. Given it is their initial coverage, and by their own admission, conservative, I would expect them to be highly aware of over-egging the pudding at such an early stage. Their initial 11p target confirms to me that they have a decent handle on reality. A lot of investors were expecting a higher figure - the fact that it wasn't is highly reassuring, leaving room for the envisaged 'sentiment change' and upgrades as all the synergies kick in. All in all a very sensible and comprehensive appraisal of 'where we were in February'

I meant academic on the basis that Porta 2015 is substantially different than the company that began 2014. It is growing organically and the 2014 acquisitions have significantly streamlined and strengthened the business. I expect 2014 finals to give a breakeven figure due to the legacy structure and central overheads [Gotrader expects us to have gone profitable]. I expect profits are currently being strongly generated this quarter on 2 fronts. One as a result of the recent absorption of TTMV into Summit and the centralisation of Newgate/PPS/Publicasity and Two - strong fee income and business wins in the far East and Australia. I am patient and happy to wait for confirmation.

Ditto. I have no idea who Gotrader is, save to say we share similar views on the prospects here. I work from home and post on breaks or when I see developments. I have invested in Porta and followed DW's strategy since 2011. Whilst I am not a lover of buy-and-build strategies, DW has adopted a strong team based on a buy-and -integrate strategy after running with several high calibre led start-ups. He has the credibility and experience to quietly assemble a very competitive company, which I believe to be at an inflexion point in 2015. His biggest learning curve came last year when he expected to quickly buy and assimilate PPS and Publicasity. He optimistically mentioned it in March but it took 8 months to secure them at [excellent] prices. The delay created a credibility gap during which time the share price fell back. It was only a delay however and we were informed that the integration had gone far better than expected as both acquisitions joined the Newgate team on January 6th this year. The RNS flow has been constantly positive throughout, backed up by an unbroken stream of director buys. So why is the shareprice not higher? The CEO is equally dumbfounded, given the strongly rising fee income and performance in Asia. I expect the 2014 figures to be achedemic given the increased overheads and legacy LLC structures. What I am expecting is a good indicator of successful integration in Newgate from January with strong growth in cross-selling and fee income. Given that DW was accused of over-optimism last year he has been very guarded in his forecasts leading me to suspect that the surprises will all now be on the upside. The proof of the pudding will only be seen when the table is spread, but Porta is trading at such a low level compared to its increasing potential, the upside could be considerable if sentiment were to change from the current scepticism. I agree with Gotrader that the MMs may be testing the market appetite with sells, but I still suspect PF is rebalancing to support his commitment to EKF Diagnostics. Just a theory that would account for selling when all the indicators are pretty good, especially given the recent weakness in Huntsworth business where we could be making strong inroads.

I still think it's Paul Foulger selling his last remnants of Porta shares from 2011. He moved to Director and FD at EKF Diagnostics and they seem to have hit a lot of regulatory headwinds etc in U.S. The resultant drop in EKF is probably the trigger for his rebalance which should be virtually clear by my reckoning. This is only my speculation since all institutions and big holders have been highly supportive and no notification levels have been crossed. That would fit well with my scenario as he had below a notifiable level on relinquishing his post in 2011. As I said, may be wrong but would fit with observations given how well Porta is doing and it appears to be a single seller whose priorities lie in another unrelated share. Just a theory, but that's what BBs are for. Interesting to see how the volumes play out as we are still at very low trading volumes. Results are due mid May which should show the indicated traction. It is interesting to see no RNS has held anything but positive news and no retractions which bodes well. DW was very aware of the effect that the delay in actually capturing PPS and Publicasity had on the shareprice - he's too seasoned to let that befall Porta again, hence I expect a stream of substantiated positive upgrades as we progress through 2015. This is the year where we evolve significantly from the building years of 2011 to 2014. The machine is virtually complete and growing organically, further add-ons will be measured yes, but we have critical mass.

Let's get the results out and Rock the market - buy/sit/wait - onward and upward....

Buy, sit it out and wait for the results. Porta is gaining strong business traction over its rivals as the RNS stream shows.

Buy now??? Games day considering the contrast between Porta upbeat and Huntsworth. Porta winning market share.

You were thinking about buying more....... I wouldn't leave it too long. Just my logic.

Accumulating...........

Expect the buy orders to begin filling as we move forward.

Anyone spotting the trend? The battle to pry shares from the bored holders is 'on'. This is certainly NOT the time to sell IMO. Sentiment is swinging quite markedly as sellers are being taken out at increasingly higher levels. Patience and time will tell, but this is looking like a tide-change.

The MMs are slowly and consistently now raising the price to extract shares from legacy holders who do not see the potential here..... 7.91......7.92.......7.9225...... I suspect we have a major inflexion approaching where the MMs have the horizon scanning ability to see that the long term overhang of easy shares has just dried up??? Patience and time will tell as a gap-jump with Porta is certainly possible.

All the indicators are in place for a rerate if you look at the consistency and positivity of the stream of RNSs going back two years. Directors have been uninterrupted buyers and Porta have not purchased businesses using shares below par value 10p. All legacy costs are being shed as we move forward and cash-burn has effectively 'ended' (CEO). I gave my indication of who I believed tthe long-term seller was and the fact that he was involved in EKF diagnostics which was battling uphill in the U.S. I suspect he has now cleared Porta and the lack of overhang is showing as increased requirements for shares. There are not a lot in free float so the price could rise strongly if investors start to view the prospects seriously. I have been accumulating as funds became available since I believe any investment below 10p par to be good value in short/medium/long term at this inflexion point in time. But that's only my opinion, the sentiment here could change very quickly as the management are skilled, seasoned and competent and indicators contrasting the fortunes of Huntsworth/Porta are powerful catalysts. Analysts can't ignore such disparity for long if Portas figures bear out the massive increase in fee income reiterated by DW.

Excellent post Gotrader. I agree that confidence in Porta in Asia/Australia is at an all time high as alluded to by DW in last interview. I can't add any more to your observations on the UK business except to agree with your observations. Sanlam admitted that their 11p share price target was being very conservative and could easily be subject to upgrades. The CEO is on record that the Australian business alone, in his opinion, is worth the equivalent of the current MCap. As we are moving into 2015 we are shedding a lot of legacy costs which shoul start to propel earnings strongly. IF PPS and Publicasity are bringing in the benefits that DW anticipated, then we should get good centralised cost savings and synergies. It is encouraging that he said integration went far better than he expected. The big pre-close share director share purchases also bode well for business confidence as does Huntsworths stagnation in the face of Portas rapidly increasing fee income. Patience is the key - Redleaf is quietly and strongly performing in the wings too. The forthcoming election plays directly into the strengths of PPS.

We are now in closed period .- hence why directors bought before recent opportunity closed. They have made their positions clear if you look at the unbroken chain of buys. Patience will out.

GAME Account and GAME Digital ?!? GAME Account is a very strong niche player biding its time and building a massive simulated gaming platform in the US and Australia. GameDigital........................... isn't! This is the one to buy and hold as Desmond Smurfit works the magic and builds the foundations. Requires patience, but will be rewarded handsomely within 12 months.

Excellent synopsis of recent wins Gotrader. I am convinced that we will get a strong trading report in the next RNS as PPS and Publicasity were inspired buys and well worth the wait to get on board at the right-time-right-price. I voiced my opinion on the persistent seller in my post on 25th March; very interesting to see that my candidate, who appears to have cleared the market now at the same time as EKF Diagnostics has just announced a 'strategic review'. An observation that may have well triggered the big purchases by DW and BM on the back of big increases in business. Time will tell, but the accolades are starting to reflect business confidence within the Porta group. We have very competent and seasoned management, a rapidly expanding pool of talent, and fee income growing at a disproportionate rate compared to rivals.

You've still not outlined your negative stance on Porta. I would be interested, if only for the fact that it seems to be contrary to the majority of new followers and mag articles who agree the tide appears to be turning in PTCMs favour. My own view on the seller, and it is only a view, nothing more, is that it's an original director from 2011 who's now involved in EKF diagnostics where sales in the USA are more resilient than first envisaged. Methinks he is slowly capitalising his shares to cover the lag-time. If correct, by my reckoning, he should be very close to, if not out already. Time will tell, but the fundamentals only get stronger as time passes for Porta and the businesses gel. We are in the right place at the best time of the cycle as PR spending and reputation management awareness increases.