Member Info for Adastra

HSBC subject to cyber attack today.... Roll on FLX contracts. These attacks can only get worse for businesses and reputational damage is significantly more than the cost of good, insured protection.

You only have to look at the range and quality of the clients down-under for Newgate and Newgate Research: http://www.newgatecomms.com.au/newgate/our-clients/ http://www.newgatecomms.com.au/research/case-studies/

A lot of Porta's income is recurring in nature; more so now we have Publicasity and PPS under the umbrella. A significant number of clients require confidentiality and it is only through separate channels that we may find the news eg Glencore, Cuadrilla. Newgate Australia also seem very busy in PR surrounding political decision making.

Porta owned Publicasity has just had its Heineken RWC campaign shortlisted for B2B Campaign of the Year by PRmoment.com. Keep them coming.......

This is good news and goes a long way to explaining why we have not moved north with so many positives in prospect. Nomads require a minimum number of [highly paid] Qualified Execs to operate in that capacity. It looks like hearsay 'disenchantment' with Sanlam's failure to concentrate on its AIM commitments may have led to this migration to Allenby Capital. This goes a long way in explaining why we have had such poor Nomad service in recent months [I have been a major critic!] - Sanlam were more interested in other areas of their business. At least Allenby should ensure that our progress is highlighted and kept up to date. The combination of Grant-Thornton, Allenby and Capital Access group should surely help raise the profile from hereon. Nice spot GT.

Excellent win for Redleaf. I'm sure there's loads of good news bubbling under the surface here. Client confidentiality is always going to restrain announcements but I suspect directors are barred from buying due to inside knowledge. Looks very positive from here.

Antipodean! (Predictive txt!)

Hi GT, just throwing out a few moves that would immediately rerate the shares quickly above par 10p and allow expansion to resume from UK base. We have all economies of scale centred now on Skylight Tower in London. Newgate Australia has been and is, a massive success from just £1m seed fund. Porta is very oversold at this level and hiving off Australia, whilst initially reducing antipodes not footprint, would fill the coffers to overflowing, leave us totally debt free, and allow expansion to gear up at the London base. Just a thought.

Our MCap is now well below our HALF YEAR turnover of £17.35m...... That's ridiculous. Our full year t/o to end December should be £30-35m with cash-generation now positive. Yes, we will have adjustments, but as long as they are reasonable and commensurate with the growth in fee income that's fine. As legacy costs continue to fall away its in everyone's interest to get the bottom line growing. Bob Morton could help greatly by helping renegotiate the loan debt down a few percentage points as it would invariably pay him to do so in the long term. If we can then look toward a combination of growth and give a timetable for maiden dividend, we would motor. This has to be a concerted team effort. We are now a stable and effective combination of seven businesses with Capital Access as a valuable add-on. Let's go....... 2016 should see this level doubled or more.

I think Hargreave have already unloaded their holding down to 5.58 and are just doing small scale adjustment. I suspect the overhang is all but clear and MM is absorbing stock for a bigger institutional buyer. The lack of director buying almost certainly points to lock out at this level since Ray was a happy big buyer at 9.5p and Steffan must be screaming to buy in at this price given his options kick in at 10p which he must have thought a reasonable and achievable level. That gives almost 70% upside for the likes of Mr 49900 buy at 6p. As far as I know, Paul Scott still has a long position in Porta and we should be the first company to follow his guideline of dropping meaningless EBITDA and giving a clean report with current cash flow and writedown etc. We can then see for ourselves the progress being made and make allowance for 'reasonable adjustments' as it is a strongly growing business. That way we gain a lot of respect for being a first-mover in dropping EBITDA and replacing it with common sense not bullsh*t.

The current value of Newgate Australia is significantly in excess of book value IMO and could, if desired, be sold off to centralise on the exceptional growth prospects for Porta in the UK. OK it means a contraction from the Southern Hemisphere, but the sale proceeds would wipe out the legacy loans and help drive acquisitions here. Interesting.

50k share bargain IMO. First of many???

The pattern of trades seems to be tennis like at present. Two days of virtually all buys followed by (HH?) selldown in blocks over next day or two. Eventually they will close out allowing buyers to take the reins. Very frustrating as it has eroded the shareprice over a pronged period stretching back over 10 months but the June and October rallies show that a change in sentiment could easily spur the rerate. If that coincided with the ending of the overhang then it could make a lacklustre performer catch fire. At the moment it's like quantities easing being led by HH!!!

When Hargreaves finally hits its comfort level as selling for 6p here has little rationale other than a portfolio rebalancing exercise. The directors are in the close period post year end or pending RNS so the market maker rules the price. I'm sure he's happy to book as much stock as available at this level and sell it out later. I agree with GoTrader that there's nothing the board can do but wait till HH has adjusted. I fully expect Capital Access to be working on an institutional investor initiative and roadshow for Porta in due course. Grant Thornton will be working on the fieldwork for the 2015 y/e audit so a February trading update should provide the necessary stimulus. If Capital Access then kick in with increased II exposure that should give the kick for some momentum............ Up instead of down. We're hovering at lows not seen since December 2012 when Porta was a cash consuming couple of start-ups. We are now a cash-generative growing and maturing communications business offering a wide range of client services. As we have said all along, once the legacy seller clears, we should begin a slow and steady rerate with the added possibility of a bear-squeeze with the limited number of shares then in circulation. Pure conjecture but logical.

For the first time in many months we appear to have an investor picking up stuck in increasing quantities to offset the sales. Hopefully we are seeing a trend reversal reflecting the good underlying performance of Porta. There has been a lot of portfolio balancing going on. I disagree with you that we have a big trading overhang still to be put through the market; I think we are experiencing a definite saucer where demand will now start to exceed supply. Time will tell, but 2016 is the year we should see progressive cash-flow, much reduced legacy debt and renegotiated term debt dropping at least 2% points IMO.

But there appears to be a definite shift from sells to buys, with a few chunky purchases of late, despite the MM markdown. It looks like a prelude to a gradual upturn and momentum could easily come into play if the pool of available shares has effectively dried up. There are very few legacy holders left at this share price so all the markers are in place for a trace upward which would only be accelerated by positive news.

It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Grant Thornton were engaged with the objective of having sufficient audit reputation to help attract institutional support from overseas, notably Australian investors where Newgate has established a strong market presence. Time will tell.

From what I can gather the change to Grant Thornton was an upgrade and should be viewed as a positive. Logically Porta needed an auditing firm that could keep pace with its footprint and growth, and I don't think Smith & Williamson had the size or reach to be able to do that, hence the change to GT. It would make sense to move at this time so that GT had access to, and were fully involved with the end 2015 audit allowing S&W to finish off any outstanding housekeeping items. I think that the appointment of Steffan has given an invigorated sense of direction and purpose to Porta since his appointment. The almost co-incident mandate from multi-billion dollar Glencore in October probably highlighted the need for a more visionary approach based on growth trajectory. That would focus on auditors with sufficient 'reach' and kudos, and the means to continue growth and expansion. I also suspect that the spotlight is now well and truly on Sanlam. We need a Nomad/Broker who can really grasp the mettle and appreciate the prospects unfolding in Porta. Sanlam have been singularly underwhelming and lacked focus and drive. I fully expect that ironically, Capital Access will be the Q1 2016 driver of institutional interest which will highlight the need to review Sanlam and look for a more proactive player. As you point out [and also DW alluded to], the need for creative acquisition whilst the shareprice is low is paramount. Taking Capital Access into Skylight Tower in exchange for a shareholding was inspired and will pay off handsomely since we can increase from current 30% holding in 2017 [if we wish]. I re-iterate the fact that Porta, much to the credit of DW, have never offered shares under par-value 10p for any acquisition, and I expect that to continue. Since we have had no RNS to the contrary since the interims in September, I am confident that Porta have continued to grow. DW stated "Our integrated product mix should ensure a better than average sector performance in the short term, and the recent new business wins across the group, coupled with the successful reorganisation programme is expected to result in another strong EBITDA performance in the second half of the year." That's now in the bag and Grant Thornton can give Porta the thorough maiden audit that should accompany either loan note debt renegotation [or even partial retirement against improving cash-flow]. As you point out, a range of legacy and start-up costs which have eaten at the bottom line, have now fallen away and y/e 2016 should provide a very 'clean' accounting year. Another reason why I suspect GT has been engaged. I am sure that the vigour of Steffan and the seasoned guidance of David will be seen as a winning combination as the New Year progresses.

So many times I've said this, but we are well overdue a re-rate on prospects here. The sell-down by Hargreaves has depressed the share price to such a level that the buyers should now gradually regain control. If, as I think, Hargreaves sticks at around the 5% exposure level, then their share overhang that has plagued the market for almost a year, has now gone. That places Porta in a position it has not been for a long time. The share price managed to rise to 10.25p in October even with the increased market supply. If/when that overhang evaporates, we shall start to see underlying demand slowly raise the price back to and beyond that level. I think we may now be at that point and those who are currently buying at 6.5p may well be smiling later in the year.

The appointment of Grant Thornton as auditors to succeed Nexia,Smith Williamson was a really positive indicator in my opinion. GT are familiar with the scale-up and growth of businesses such as Porta with worldwide geographic reach. Most of their clients are in the £50m-£500m MCap which is a good indicator of where [Steffan] sees his target MCap. It's essentially an upgrade in my eyes and positions Porta to deal with the bigger clients like Glencore engaged in October. Whilst there is still a lot of confidentiality regarding client contracts, I expect more of increasing size to be under negotiation at this time. Porta now have the scale to provide a multitude of services to bigger clients under one roof and the MD to promote them. This is the quarter where budgets are set and directed; lets hope we're out there reaping the rewards.