Member Info for adamk87

The article is from 26/06/23 - it shows today’s date on the banner of every page navigating the website.

Besides Mahmud, Finance Minister Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali, Adviser on Private Industry and Investment Salman F Rahman, State Minister for Commerce Ahasanul Islam Titu, State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid, State Minister for ICT Zunaid Ahmed Palak, and Foreign Secretary Masud Bin Momen, among others, will accompany the prime minister.

Nasrul Hamid will be there, if there’s a time to speak Phulbari…it is now.

#metoo

‘China's president Xi Jinping visited Dhaka in September 2016. During this historic visit, it was decided to implement 27 projects. Of these, 15 have been completed, six are underway and there is consideration of replacing the remaining six with new projects.

It has been learnt that Bangladesh raised some new projects for China's consideration at the foreign secretary level meeting between the two countries at the beginning of this month. It was pointed out to China that much delay is made in scrutinising the projects for which the feasibility of the projects is harmed.’

Searcher there’s also 5 projects from 2016 that never got off the ground (i believe at least 3 of these were coal related power plants) that are being replaced with 5 ‘new’ projects.

K&C my thinking exactly, controversial is the extraction method however it’s not just Phulbari that requires open pit…nearby Petrobangla owned Barapukuria coal mine requires further expansion using the same method (have asked for Chinese involvement in the past - Power China).

‘Fulbari and Barapukuria in Dinajpur are once again on the table for open-pit coal mining.’

‘State Minister for Power, Energy & Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid has recently said that it is not possible to leave so much coal underground and import it. “Sooner or later, we will have to extract coal locally. For this, local people will be paid adequate compensation.”’

Seeds have been planted and as you pointed out, plenty have taken big positions here with the amounts involved not punt money.

In terms of opposition, if you research other coal mines approved the pushback was exactly the same with displacement/protests/deaths.

Now is a good a time as any and the perfect place to GL the project. Not getting my hopes too high as Searcher makes valid points…all it takes is 1 piece of press the next few days and we ascend at super sonic speed!!! (Hopes are back up again haha!!!)

The joys of investing on aim!!

Searcher after some further research, i have to somewhat agree with you on this.

‘According to the agreements signed during Chinese President Xi Jinpings visit to Bangladesh in 2016, Bangladesh will receive $26 billion for BRI projects and $14 billion for joint venture projects, totaling a $40 billion package.

Bangladesh has primarily seen BRI projects in the energy and transportation sectors, with infrastructure investment needs projected to reach 1.5% of GDP by 2040.’

https://bwged.blogspot.com/2020/11/list-of-projects-under-bri-in-bangladesh.html?m=1

⬆️ a list of BRI projects - in total there are 27 energy projects, of which, some have come online - Barisal/Banshkhali/ (Power China has involvement in each one), some shelved and some (Phulbari) in the pipeline.

https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/2mwppl06f6

I believe Phulbari falls into this category and is likely to be included in talks…after all, there’s no better time for something of this magnitude and it is the solution to a lot of problems.

Gudge expresses my feelings perfectly in his response and Newbof ‘I think it’s much more likely that it is discussed and if positive, there will begin to be a noticeable ramp up in hints to the population.’ Quote is probably the more likely (i hope!!).

BRI is high on the agenda

https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/202407/t20240704_11448289.html

*Response to question on Hasinas visit half way down the page.

It’s a big week for us with a good chance we’re discussed in whatever discussions take place, obviously would love approval to be included (can happen - might’ve be kept low profile on purpose) but agree, the radio silence and current share price doesn’t indicate imminent approval.

One thing i will say, everything we could ask for is in place…dwindling reserves, record energy consumption, coal shortages, sky high coal prices, the perfect partner in Power China who i imagine will have a say, after all they want to use Phulbari coal at 2 mines they currently operate in Bangla and have recently signed a billion $ contract with us…

Whether approval arrives this week or not, i intend on remaining a holder until we go into production/taken-over…if that means being kept in limbo longer, then so be it as approval will arrive.

It was the same prior to their meeting in 2016, so much so that when the projects were unveiled, they had plaques for each project like a grand show.

We can create or believe in as much hype as we want on a BB, fact is we’ve not had anything from the company indicating for or against Phulbari being one of the projects that’ll get approved next week.

The guys attending AGM in Feb were told news of approval would come from the Bangla govt, imo there’s no better time or setting for such a massive project than next week when deals are made between the 2 presidents.

Don’t forget this article:

https://www.bbc.com/bengali/articles/ce7xznl4wj1o

According to BBC Bangla, the ministry of power and energy will submit a proposal in this regard shortly at the highest level of the government for approval.

What ever happened to the proposal? It’s not been rejected….it’s not just disappeared. I firmly believe it’ll get approved next week…!

I know, i know, SP is telling us otherwise but i’m fully convinced. If I’m setting myself up for disappointment, so be it.

I don’t think it’s a case of the Chinese talking them round. Bangla needs more coal, more importantly, their own coal.

Hasina was there only 12 days ago…coincidence? Maybe she told him of Banglas plans to increase coal output….

I’ve had conversations with many people the last 6 months, if they have any link to the project, why not? You don’t ask, you don’t get.

On a different note:

I’ve always felt one of the best ways to predict a future event is by studying the past, which brings me to the last time the 2 presidents met in 2016….

Let’s look at some the deals signed:

- China agreed to finance $5.52 billion for eight projects in the power and energy sector

- $6.64 billion for five rail projects

- $6.65 billion for four projects under Roads and Bridges Division

- $1.31 billion for five livelihood projects

- $1.15 billion for four projects in the ICT

Do we fall into any of them categories? Yes, the first one…so let’s look a little closer.

One of the projects signed was for a 1320 MW coal-fired power plant in Chittagong’s Banshkhali.

30,000 protest against mine being built. Four people were killed after police opened fire on the protesters. Witnesses said that 100 people were injured - this whole protestors and deaths isn’t exclusive to Phulbari, this is common place (unfortunately) in Bangla. Yet this mine was approved along with others, when the 2 president met.

Anyway after these deals were done, this is the type of language coming out of Bangla

Sheikh Hasina - ‘China has become our largest trading partner and we consider China as a trusted partner in realising our dreams too.’

Retired Lieutenant General Mahbubur Rahman - ‘ There has not been too many significant events in the history of Bangladesh equal to President Xi Jinping' visit. The Chinese president's visit has opened Bangladesh's golden door to immense prospects and potential developments’

Anyway back to Banshkhali -

https://www.power-technology.com/data-insights/power-plant-profile-s-alam-banshkhali-power-plant-bangladesh/?cf-view

Familiar name?

Power Construction Corporation of China and SEPCOIII Electric Power Construction were selected to render engineering procurement construction services for the coal fired power project.

Bangladesh's geographic location makes it an irreplaceable link connecting India and China, and efforts to boost the local economy and improve infrastructure in Bangladesh could bring development momentum for the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

Phulbari is part of the Belt and Road initiative, it sits only a few miles off the Indian border and is very important strategically, Power China have hung around for as long as they have for a reason.

Are we going to get the go ahead in Hasina’s visit next week? Who knows, but it’s as good a time as any and makes the most sense. If not, hopefully the wait won’t be far away and we get an update confirming the same.

It’s important to reiterate the fact there’s been ample opportunity to say NO and put this to bed, that hasn’t happened…if it’s not a NO…then surely, a YES is coming.

Anyway, we’ll know soon enoug

But yes, agreed. Shares are swapping hands with someone gobbling up everything as they have been for months.

Calm before the storm? July 9-11th are of massive significance, let’s see how it all plays out. GL

Cybertron just another WOS stalker from the MATD bb. Couldn’t make it up LOL

Filtered.

We went from 1p - 12p on essentially ‘nothing’ given contracts are worthless if no approval arrives.

Why were we valued so low to begin with? Why would the mm’s manipulate the price down to that level and allow some to get in and run with a 1000% profit? Why did they take it up to 12p, only for it to languish at 5.5p now?

Whatever logic investors tried to use, from a penny, achieving 12p a couple months later seemed impossible - yet it happened.

Guess all you like, fact is mm’s are free to do as they please while uncertainty exists and they use it because they’re all too familiar with trading/human behaviour and what needs to be done to collect shares.

So many have sold the last few months (boredom, fear, need for cash etc)…in that time we’ve had someone buying massive swathes of shares from Feb through to end of May and more recently but not as frequently, massive buys (not your average punter that’s for sure).

Once approval arrives and uncertainty is removed i expect us to AT LEAST achieve a market cap in the hundreds of millions, difference is we will stay there and use it as a base to move up from while going into production (at which point a takeover is likely… there’s too much money involved).

Hasina travels to China and deals will be done (9th-11th July). Approval is ‘key’ to unlocking the asset, only then is access to contents of the asset accessible. The biggest gains will be made after approval and once the enormity of Phulbari is realised.

My take on it is:

Tang is already a millionaire, for a millionaire to invest the most precious commodity (time) in GCM for as long as he has, no way he’s getting taken out on the cheap. The man hasn’t taken a wage in over 5 years, time and time again he’s found ways to raise money without diluting is into no mans land as is normal on AIM (only 275 million shares in issue - a lot of which are held by him/affiliates).

I do believe we get taken over, before any coal is sold, but not until a while after approval given. At what price for a 100 billion dollar asset? Who knows, but it’ll be much more than the previous high of 400m mcap imo.

Again, Tang is a millionaire without GCM…why would he put himself in the situation he has (hostile environment), unless it’s for the type of money that retires a millionaire.

Her visit to China is well documented in Bangla, the people are fed up paying the price for govt errors of the past. They, more than anyone are hoping change is coming…in the way of billion $ projects, in turn creating jobs and everything else that’ll go with it.

Power China is an arm of Chinese govt - Phulbari is included in the belt and road initiative. 27 projects were given the go ahead previously, I’m expecting more this time round with the world order at threat, Bangla an important strategic asset for the Chinese.

All buys. A 40 grand buy around 10 days ago to go with the accumulation. Not punt money

They already seem to be moving the ask up with every buy, once accumulation phase over we should be back up around 10-12p very quickly imo.

As we all know, the SP can escalate very quickly here…and it will. The last cross border visit was back in 2016 when president Xi visited Dhaka and 27 projects between the 2 countries were given the go ahead.

Those projects including a power plant built by GCM’s partners Power China gave the Chinese a real foothold in the country, a number of them will be given the go ahead this time round and my moneys on Phulbari being one of them.

It’s a project befitting the occasion, will be sold to the Bangla people with a whole host of project, help in easing the current coal shortages and energy crisis.