Next 12 months.17 Oct 2024 14:15
My 12 month look ahead.
H1 starts producing within the next 2 weeks, initially around 300 bbl/d increasing to 400 bbl/d in a couple of months, we may even see more than 400 bbl/d once the geology and down hole conditions are better understood.
H2, well test results are expected to be favourable and commercial, given we have till around the end of November to complete the well and bring it online we should have production from H1 and H2 over winter months. H2 production guess would be on or around 300 bbl/d, this gives us a minimum of 600 bbl/d initially and my guess is around an average 700 bbl/d average in the next 12months (trying to be conservative here).
Think most would agree Israel Iran will kick off soon, we are told US has asked Israel to limit their retaliation to Iran military targets as they do not want any huge spikes in the oil price before the US elections, my thoughts are Israel will go along with US wishes as the US have agreed to supply Israel with their THAAD system, however any attack by Israel will result in Iran attacking Israel again, then I should think the gloves will come off with Israel attacking Iranian oil facilities and nuclear sites, Iran for their part have threatened to disrupt the worlds oil supply if their oil facilities are attacked, can or will they do this, I have no idea but probably they can, this will result in the oil price rocketing skyward, some have predicted $350 oil price, unlikely I agree but who knows, either way it will be an eventful 12 months ahead for MATAD, 2025 drilling season will kick off with the rig already onsite, ready to drill H3 and H4, assuming we have production over winter from H1 and H2 I believe we will have enough in the kitty for at least both these wells, or we may have struck a contract with DQE to offset costs against future revenues or we may benefit from a soft loan, all have been discussed and are on the table, if a deal with DQE or a soft loan we could easily have H5 and an H6 in 2025.
If H1 & H2 combined can average 700 bbl/d over the next 12 months that gives us 255,500 barrels of oil to sell, sure you can do the figures yourself if you want to take a stab at where the oil price will be in the coming weeks and months.
Some might call the above ramping, others might call it being realistic.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
