Thanks A_clabb for the comprehension answers, interesting to read. Seems the business model is becoming more viable and the proposition is being significantly de-risked with the latest pieces of news. I got the answer to my Uskmouth testing assumption in the RNS this morning...just wish I had bought in slightly earlier.
Hi, looking to buy in here as both the tidal energy and waste to energy pellets have huge potential upside from here. Have a couple of questions that I haven’t been able to do an answer to...
Why has the share price fallen so much since IPO - is this solely due to time delays or has the scope changed?
Are you expecting a buy out by a energy giant or do you see the company going it alone?
I assume the likelihood of the fuel testing at Uskmouth has a very high likelihood of being successful? As unlike a complex medical trial for example it should be fairly obvious what the outcome will be.
Was a little bit miffed this morning at the obvious insider dealing and raise but after being granted my full allocation on PrimaryBid and seeing just how much was raised and how the market has reacted I am now very excited for the next few weeks. This company is setting itself up for a very big future way beyond covid 19.
P.s Iceman I think your brain needs defrosting.
Jaspy - they are trying to develop a test that will be needed in the hundreds of millions of units to help overcome a disease that is crippling the global economy. Do you honestly think they sit there refreshing the share price every five minutes? Do you think they are panicking about a 20 or 30 percent fall in share price when the overall prize is so big?
Stop panicking you are just giving the shorters and trolls things to feed off.
Some people seriously need to get a grip “the silence is deafening” they “need to deliver” on what they promised etc etc. It has been a couple of weeks since they signed a distribution deal - whatdo you want an RNS every day just to stop you from crying? An RNS to say they have developed a test and tested it and presold 100 million units?
Maybe, just maybe, the company is a little but busy now and will update when they have news. If you can’t handle 2 or 3 weeks of no updates and a falling share price then you shouldn’t be investing on aim.
Hi all, have a small holding here and looking to add. One question that I have been unable to find an answer to is do we know what percentage of revenue Omega will get from sales? Are the consortium member considered equal or are Omega or another member expected to receive a larger share?
Either way the demand for this test will be huge so even a 20% share will be substantial but just wondering if anyone had read anything or can estimate based on the partner roles in creating the test.
Wow there are some bizarre characters on this board. All I said was had anyone seen Tom Winnifrith’s show and mentioned his comment. I even said myself it was probably clickbait and that I wasn’t a fan of his. Read comments properly before you get defensive and start insulting people.
Anyway I won’t post here anymore, good luck all.
13thmonkey - We have been told the reagents have been able to detect the virus in avactas lab, this has yet to be proven in a lateral flow device. The fact it takes several weeks to even produce a prototype device (that then after that still needs to be tested and validated at scale) suggest it’s not as cut as dry as people on here are implying.
Too many unknowns to start modelling with any confidence. How accurate is the test? How many manufacturing partners will we have? How many competitors are out there that we do not know of? How many people have already had the virus and how much immunity does this give you? How close is a vaccine? How much of the margin can we maintain at huge volume?
To reach these sky high estimates we everything in our favour I.e. a very accurate test, multiple manufacturing partners, no vaccine for at least a year, no immunity from those have already had the virus, no major competitors, no margins being squeezed etc. Changing any one of these variables has a huge impact on where we will get to. I would rather wait and see what the test accuracy is and get some more manufacturing partners in place before getting ahead of ourselves.
I know everyone is excited by the potential here but some of these forecasts are absolutely dreaming. If you genuinely believe we have a 95% chance of success and will make 15 billion PROFIT next year and then give two thirds of it away in a dividend then I think you are at best very naive, if you are doing it to ramp the share and attract rookie investors then that’s worse. I have seen this type of projections on so many shares and so far none have ever achieved them. Have also seen a number of sure things and no brainer drugs fail trials so anything can happen.
I bought in at 20p and then topped up at 60p and continue to hold but accept that at this market cap we are getting into the risky territory because if there are any issues or delays we are rightly or wrongly going to see a bit fail. Of course if everything goes to plan then the upside from here is huge. Although a caveat to that is that the market doesn’t always respond the way you expect even when things go well - have a look at the ncyt board - they are all very upset their share price has been falling even though they are selling huge numbers of tests.
Fingers crossed we do well but it’s better at this stage to keep your feet on the ground and be conservative, then hopefully we will beat expectations rather than disappoint.
Hadn’t really considered them before but they are perfect to buy out MelodyVR. Huge company that would seamlessly be able to offer VR concerts to their already massive user base. They would finally be able to generate some value out of the tech and agreements melody have created. Used to want Melody to go it alone but have less and less faith in them being able to do it so am hoping for a buyout within a year.
Was surprised by the exclusive distribution deal this morning, seems odd that they would grant exclusivity to one unknown company for distribution when they were clear on manufacture they would not grant exclusivity even to a huge name like a Cytiva. They are putting a lot of faith in a newly formed company (albeit one with good management/backers) to pull this off. Still not 100% convinced it’s the best move but trust they know what they are doing. The main positives are:
- financially it’s obviously a very good deal for Avacta
- it’s a strategic partnership that will last beyond COVID 19. If MedUSA can develop its brand it could well become a household name as the ocado/amazon for home tests so it is a good long term move. This should hopefully provide steady long term revenue.
- it’s only for direct to customer so huge deals can still be done for businesses/organisations
In reality if the test works it won’t need marketing and it will sell itself so hopefully it won’t matter that the distributor is an unknown at this stage.
Vaccines have been delivered without nuvec for years. The government seems to be targeting by the end of the year for the vaccine. Why is nuvec needed for covid 19? Will it be proven to be effective it time to even be an option?
As Melody now appear to be making good progress with the live shows for music, I have been thinking about the theatre side with John Gore. Obviously having audiences at theatre shows is out of the question for the foreseeable future so do you expect melody to offer theatre shows soon? Do you think any shows had already been recorded pre-corona? Recording a show now/soon would be possible although quite a lot of testing would be required for the actors/directors etc (in theory similar to what would be required for a football match with will be back soon). Whilst the music side has a lot of competition, I don’t know of anyone else that could challenge melody on the theatre side so it could potentially be very lucrative. Theatre shows would also be easier to market/sell as John Gore probably already has access to a large market.