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Jeremy - Yep! Price moved lower to a bullish order block / relatively equal lows & respected the OB & lows & popped right back up. I'm hoping price still wants to stay above the previously discussed 31 level.
People Power - It was pure & simple bread & butter price action today (a move lower to fill orders & a liquidity sweep followed by an aggressive displacement higher).
Mike & his team have probably run through the multiple scenario's that could play out & have moves ready to make depending on what the other actors do or don't do. It's a win-win for Mike - He profits from cyclical stocks or a take-over or both.
Perhaps Mike bought into BOO & ASC & other brands to stop Shein from making a move(s) without his say so or from him not profiting from any deal(s). It's easier to buy a ready-made brand with all that juicy customer data than to start one from scratch.
Agreed! A close tomorrow above todays high would be bullish for sure & I'd also like to see the 31 level retested as further confirmation (the recent highs @ 31 that were 'resistance' are now supporting price).
Today price ran out last week's high & the relatively equal highs formed prior to 3rd October. Anyone short would have their buy stops resting above that high therefore the buy stops were triggered.
100% agree! If you get over emotional when taking a position to the point that you want to argue with total strangers over many hours & many days, then investing, position / swing trading is just not for you & or your position size is way too large.
Wednesday close? During Wednesday price moved lower & eventually arrived @ Tuesday lows in the late afternoon & you can see that volume increased from around 2.0pm on Wednesday (1.0pm Vol: 370K. 2.0pm Vol: 1.22M. 3.0pm Vol: 1.59m). Once all the buy orders were filled price moved to seek out new liquidity (short positions buy stops etc).
Basically...The low-lying liquidity @ the lows was taken & then price moved higher to seek out more liquidity.
Also, price moved higher to fill in the gap created during the opening on Wednesday (priced gapped down @ 8.0am) to ensure efficiently delivery of price.
Thursdays close? On Thursday price opened lower to a discount level which would be where the buy orders were resting (professional money will only buy @ a discount level & will sit on the side lines & wait patiently for price to move lower). Once those orders were filled price moved higher in search of liquidity which would be located above the recent highs.
Friday? Reviewing the hourly chart I'm anticipating a retracement lower (could be very short & sweet @ the open) before hopefully a move higher & price moving above the highs of this week.
Hi Alex - The perception of most retail traders / investors is that price moves due to supply & demand which is not the case. If you think about it very simply the majority of traders looking to buy, or sell would all have to decide on a particular a price & simultaneously press the button without being in contact with each other. If the supply & demand principal was true, then price movements would be totally random & price wouldn't move as it can be seen on the charts.
So what moves price?
For a market to operate you need willing buyers & sellers & the MM algos determine / calculate where the buy & sell orders are most likely to be resting. For example, the algos move price to a low or below a low to collect buy orders & then moves price higher to allow those orders to be sold to new willing buyers. Who are the new willing buyers @ higher prices? Shorts looking to close their positions, traders who think price will move even higher & institutional buyers building long term long positions. Price moves to where the liquidity is resting & pairs willing buyers & sellers or vice versa.
Price also moves to ensure price is efficiently delivered which is another job of the MM algos. To be efficient price must be offered on the buy & sell side @ a particular price. This is why for example you see a series of up-close green candles followed by a 'pull back' or series of red candles. The up (buy) & down (sell) candles is price being efficiently offered / delivered in both directions.
Also, where you get a gap in price or liquidity void the algos make a note of the gap & @ a later time price moves to fill in the gap & note it may take weeks or months for the gap to be eventually filled.
BOO price action this week? On Tuesday you could have bought a share @ 28.0. Professional traders are willing buyers but will only buy @ a discount price therefore on Wednesday they placed their buy orders @ or around Mondays low of 28.0. Once the 28.0 buy orders were filled price moved higher to allow the new longs to sell to new willing buyers who are prepared to pay a higher price. The institutional algo's know how & why price moves & buy & sell accordingly.
To the untrained eye price movements can appear to be random but you see the identical chart patterns / price movements & protentional long & short set ups / models across all markets (stocks, indices, FOREX & commodities).
Who were the morning sellers? Sell stops resting below the recent lows were triggered & the willing buyers hopefully included some of the shorts unwinding their positions.
Wednesday? Price needs to be efficiently delivered on the buy & sell side therefore I'm anticipating price retracing prior to a move higher.
The previous two occasions when the daily closing price was unchanged, price closed higher on the following two trading days. Also note 31.58 was the lowest September 2023 daily close therefore if there was no TU tomorrow & just a normal trading day some bullish traders would assume the bottom has been reached & anticipate price to move higher. Hopefully the TU will be generally positive & patience holders will be rewarded.
Arguing about the nuances of a trading update doesn't move price & time would be better spent studying historic price action & back / forward testing entries & exits.
Approximately 90% of retail traders lose money on the stock market - Therefore it's safe to say that 8 or 9 out of 10 people who post here lose & use message boards like this to vent their spleen.
Profitable traders looking for a long entry wouldn't have bought this afternoon & would have waited on the side lines watching price or taken a long position yesterday. Therefore the willing buyers were short traders & uneducated retail traders.
Algo trades & price held this afternoon - Two obvious scenarios in play:
No.1: Traders who bought @ yesterday opening lows are taking profits or partials @ a sensible level (relatively equal recent highs from the last few trading sessions) & they are selling to willing buyers who are the short traders unwinding their positions.
No.2: If you review the 15M chart you'll see @ 8.30am on 26th September a large bodied up-closed candle followed by a down close candle & then another up closed candle. The buyers on the 26th @ 8.30am have been underwater & today price was driven higher to allow the buyers to exit their long positions / mitigate their losers. The longs sold to willing buyers & the willing buyers were the short traders unwinding their positions.
Price action reads like a story & there is always a narrative behind price moving higher or lower.
This morning @ the open price moved lower & swept the liquidity resting below the recent lows (sell stops were triggered) & because price must be efficiently delivered price then moved higher & filled in the volume imbalance (gap between full bodied candles) in price that can be seen on the 4 hourly chart (22.9.23). Price didn't move higher & then lower due to supply & demand or similar, price took the opportunity to fill in the gap.
Bullish traders will assume the lows have now been swept (sell side liquidity) & price will move higher. Potential bullish short term price target? The 410 level (location of relatively equal highs created on 8th, 15th & 20 September).
Bearish traders will want to see price move lower & target the liquidity resting below the lows printed on the 17th July (340 level).
Thank you for posting the CC snap shots.
Whether you're a bull or a bear it's prudent to look @ the fundamentals from both sides. Confirmation bias traps traders & critical thinking is key when making trading decisions based purely on the fundamentals.
Hedge funds or institutional money (oil tankers) acting in concert will move price but retail traders (small fishing boats) acting in concert wont & media / talking heads are just smoke & mirrors designed to create an illusion & trap retail traders & this is why the vast majority of retail lose money. Most retail traders have no idea when to buy or sell & buy or sell because they have money to trade @ a particular time & want to be in the market.
The vast majority of Ashley and Umar's holdings have come from PI's, once the shorts have gone the vast majority of trades will come from PI's? I'd suggest a mixture of both short sellers & retail traders selling @ a loss but it is irrelevant where the shares have come from.
Simplistically reduced volume here makes it easier for small volumes of trades to influence price?
High or low volume doesn't equal a significant price move so retail traders can buy as much or as little as they like & price won't move significantly. Price moves to pair institutional orders (liquidity) & the MM algos know where those large orders are likely to rest & price therefore moves higher or lower accordingly.
Take Fridays price swing for example - The MM algos assumed professional money had their buy orders @ or below recent lows therefore price moved lower to fill those orders & price didn't move lower due to low or high volume or buying / selling pressure price simply moved to where the orders are located.
I see posters here panicking when price moves lower but it's just moving lower to where the orders are resting & this doesn't mean the BOO ship is sinking & traders are abandoning ship.