Member Info for Ableton

Wednesday close? During Wednesday price moved lower & eventually arrived @ Tuesday lows in the late afternoon & you can see that volume increased from around 2.0pm on Wednesday (1.0pm Vol: 370K. 2.0pm Vol: 1.22M. 3.0pm Vol: 1.59m). Once all the buy orders were filled price moved to seek out new liquidity (short positions buy stops etc).

Basically...The low-lying liquidity @ the lows was taken & then price moved higher to seek out more liquidity.

Also, price moved higher to fill in the gap created during the opening on Wednesday (priced gapped down @ 8.0am) to ensure efficiently delivery of price.

Thursdays close? On Thursday price opened lower to a discount level which would be where the buy orders were resting (professional money will only buy @ a discount level & will sit on the side lines & wait patiently for price to move lower). Once those orders were filled price moved higher in search of liquidity which would be located above the recent highs.

Friday? Reviewing the hourly chart I'm anticipating a retracement lower (could be very short & sweet @ the open) before hopefully a move higher & price moving above the highs of this week.

Hi Alex - The perception of most retail traders / investors is that price moves due to supply & demand which is not the case. If you think about it very simply the majority of traders looking to buy, or sell would all have to decide on a particular a price & simultaneously press the button without being in contact with each other. If the supply & demand principal was true, then price movements would be totally random & price wouldn't move as it can be seen on the charts.

So what moves price?

For a market to operate you need willing buyers & sellers & the MM algos determine / calculate where the buy & sell orders are most likely to be resting. For example, the algos move price to a low or below a low to collect buy orders & then moves price higher to allow those orders to be sold to new willing buyers. Who are the new willing buyers @ higher prices? Shorts looking to close their positions, traders who think price will move even higher & institutional buyers building long term long positions. Price moves to where the liquidity is resting & pairs willing buyers & sellers or vice versa.

Price also moves to ensure price is efficiently delivered which is another job of the MM algos. To be efficient price must be offered on the buy & sell side @ a particular price. This is why for example you see a series of up-close green candles followed by a 'pull back' or series of red candles. The up (buy) & down (sell) candles is price being efficiently offered / delivered in both directions.

Also, where you get a gap in price or liquidity void the algos make a note of the gap & @ a later time price moves to fill in the gap & note it may take weeks or months for the gap to be eventually filled.

BOO price action this week? On Tuesday you could have bought a share @ 28.0. Professional traders are willing buyers but will only buy @ a discount price therefore on Wednesday they placed their buy orders @ or around Mondays low of 28.0. Once the 28.0 buy orders were filled price moved higher to allow the new longs to sell to new willing buyers who are prepared to pay a higher price. The institutional algo's know how & why price moves & buy & sell accordingly.

To the untrained eye price movements can appear to be random but you see the identical chart patterns / price movements & protentional long & short set ups / models across all markets (stocks, indices, FOREX & commodities).

Who were the morning sellers? Sell stops resting below the recent lows were triggered & the willing buyers hopefully included some of the shorts unwinding their positions.

Wednesday? Price needs to be efficiently delivered on the buy & sell side therefore I'm anticipating price retracing prior to a move higher.

The previous two occasions when the daily closing price was unchanged, price closed higher on the following two trading days. Also note 31.58 was the lowest September 2023 daily close therefore if there was no TU tomorrow & just a normal trading day some bullish traders would assume the bottom has been reached & anticipate price to move higher. Hopefully the TU will be generally positive & patience holders will be rewarded.

One for the team?!? I don't mind @ all & that just leaves 8 places to fill!

Arguing about the nuances of a trading update doesn't move price & time would be better spent studying historic price action & back / forward testing entries & exits.

Approximately 90% of retail traders lose money on the stock market - Therefore it's safe to say that 8 or 9 out of 10 people who post here lose & use message boards like this to vent their spleen.

Profitable traders looking for a long entry wouldn't have bought this afternoon & would have waited on the side lines watching price or taken a long position yesterday. Therefore the willing buyers were short traders & uneducated retail traders.

Algo trades & price held this afternoon - Two obvious scenarios in play:

No.1: Traders who bought @ yesterday opening lows are taking profits or partials @ a sensible level (relatively equal recent highs from the last few trading sessions) & they are selling to willing buyers who are the short traders unwinding their positions.

No.2: If you review the 15M chart you'll see @ 8.30am on 26th September a large bodied up-closed candle followed by a down close candle & then another up closed candle. The buyers on the 26th @ 8.30am have been underwater & today price was driven higher to allow the buyers to exit their long positions / mitigate their losers. The longs sold to willing buyers & the willing buyers were the short traders unwinding their positions.

Price action reads like a story & there is always a narrative behind price moving higher or lower.

This morning @ the open price moved lower & swept the liquidity resting below the recent lows (sell stops were triggered) & because price must be efficiently delivered price then moved higher & filled in the volume imbalance (gap between full bodied candles) in price that can be seen on the 4 hourly chart (22.9.23). Price didn't move higher & then lower due to supply & demand or similar, price took the opportunity to fill in the gap.

Bullish traders will assume the lows have now been swept (sell side liquidity) & price will move higher. Potential bullish short term price target? The 410 level (location of relatively equal highs created on 8th, 15th & 20 September).

Bearish traders will want to see price move lower & target the liquidity resting below the lows printed on the 17th July (340 level).

We are in a period of accumulation prior to manipulation which precedes distribution.

A high probability set up is now in play & some traders will have a target of 33.60.

Thank you for posting the CC snap shots.

Whether you're a bull or a bear it's prudent to look @ the fundamentals from both sides. Confirmation bias traps traders & critical thinking is key when making trading decisions based purely on the fundamentals.

Hedge funds or institutional money (oil tankers) acting in concert will move price but retail traders (small fishing boats) acting in concert wont & media / talking heads are just smoke & mirrors designed to create an illusion & trap retail traders & this is why the vast majority of retail lose money. Most retail traders have no idea when to buy or sell & buy or sell because they have money to trade @ a particular time & want to be in the market.

The vast majority of Ashley and Umar's holdings have come from PI's, once the shorts have gone the vast majority of trades will come from PI's? I'd suggest a mixture of both short sellers & retail traders selling @ a loss but it is irrelevant where the shares have come from.

Simplistically reduced volume here makes it easier for small volumes of trades to influence price?

High or low volume doesn't equal a significant price move so retail traders can buy as much or as little as they like & price won't move significantly. Price moves to pair institutional orders (liquidity) & the MM algos know where those large orders are likely to rest & price therefore moves higher or lower accordingly.

Take Fridays price swing for example - The MM algos assumed professional money had their buy orders @ or below recent lows therefore price moved lower to fill those orders & price didn't move lower due to low or high volume or buying / selling pressure price simply moved to where the orders are located.

I see posters here panicking when price moves lower but it's just moving lower to where the orders are resting & this doesn't mean the BOO ship is sinking & traders are abandoning ship.

I find it very strange that poster spend so much time talking up or down a share due to the fact retail trades are insignificant & retail buying & selling does not move price. In fact buying / selling pressure does not move price full stop & this can be seen when price moves lower or higher with low volumes traded.

NVIDIA? IMO If price retraces to 275 to 285 then a long entry could be considered but would depend on the price action @ that time. Price may only go as low as 350 which wouldn't be enough of a retracement for me to consider a long.

I'll be forward testing one or two trading models using this instrument (having no historic price action data makes things a bit more interesting) Have you taken a position or are you waiting on the side lines?

It appears those traders who were looking for something extra have been rewarded!

IMO totally valid long entries if risk is managed correctly. Patience hopefully should equate to profit.

Bullish traders will indeed expect a reversal on Thursday but some greedy traders looking for a long entry will want an additional discount & will be hoping for price to print lower (33.90 level) before hopefully moving higher!

I must say I do like BOO - There's never a dull moment with this share!

I mentioned the 34.50 level in my post on the 31st August stating hypothetically I'd be a buyer below that level.

JeremyP is correct in stating the FIB factor & there are other factors which make this level interesting.

On the 31st I also mentioned the 35.30 level being 'support'.

Some here will find the following interesting & confirmation that totally random supply & demand & buying & selling pressure doesn't move price!

The mean price printed on the 5th September was 35.40.

The mean price printed on the 6th September was 34.49.

I used Yahoo Finance average line tool to determine the mean price for each day.

If random supply / demand moved price then this level of accuracy (within 0.3%) wouldn't be possible.

PP - I agree! Price moves to pair buy & sell orders or vice versa. The MM algos don't know where the orders are but moves price to where it thinks the orders will be sitting (above old highs & lows & other levels of interest) & this is how liquidity is maintained. 100%? Off course not but one can anticipate where price is more than likely to want to reach for than not.