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Hi Jeremy - Price is currently in a trading range therefore IMO a meaningful breakout or break of structure will be when price closes above the most recent weekly high (40.50) for consecutive trading sessions. Off course we have lower time frame 'breakouts' but IMO BOO is one for the traders @ the moment & price will move or 'breakout' for the already invested when the fundamentals improve or are anticipated to improve.
Pipe Dreamer - Thank you & will do! As anticipated both BOO & ASOS did indeed move in concert today & I believe BOO was up around 2.3% intraday. Note that the BOO & ASOS daily highs occurred within the same 15 minute time window (2.45pm - 3.0pm).
Sometimes you have to just let price breath a little & do what it needs to do before it moves to where you believe it needs to go which is easier said than done!
Made a mistake? Perhaps not & you could be out by just a day!
The lower time frame charts carry little weight IMO & are only useful for very short term swing / day trading & finessing the entries & exits of longer term swing trades.
Saying that I've reviewed Tuesday's intra-day minute charts for both BOO & ASOS & the price action for both is indicating to me that there is a high probability that both BOO & ASOS will move higher on Wednesday. Note that high probability doesn't mean it will happen! But I believe the seeds of a move higher for BOO & ASOS have been sown in Tuesday afternoons price action.
Hopefully price will take out some of the recent highs BUT note that the budget could scupper any moves higher or the budget could assist with the higher move.
I thought the above was worth sharing because I'm anticipating both BOO & ASOS moving higher. GLA!
I think you're spot on with your comments regarding fun punts & buying @ the 40 level & the ex trader in the attached YouTube video sums thing up perfectly regarding everyday people thinking they can make easy money from trading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1K187kvyFBw
Trading or short term investing for quick profits is very difficult to master & takes a lot of time & work to master.
Emotions? I believe most retail traders think that fixing their emotions will improve their trading which is just not the case. If you have a consistently profitable trading plan / set-up / model or similar then that actually fixes your emotions because you know your way of trading is profitable in the long term & draw-downs / losing trades are inevitable & to be expected.
Hi Pipedreamer - Thank you for the explanation & it's always interesting to see how others approach the market.
You're probably aware that all markets have seasonal tendencies & some months are more likely to be bearish or bullish or months when price consolidates.
Have you found more success with your calculations during certain times of the year & or certain times of the month?
Pipedreamer - The 20.12.2023 high was a measured move from the recent swing high (15.11.23) to swing low (30.11.23).
Using a measured move the price target was 42.06. For clarity here are the numbers using data from Yahoo Finance:
36.65 = 15.11.23 high. 31.24 = 30.11.23 low. Therefore (36.65 - 31.24) + 36.65 = 42.06.
Measured movers are a reliable way of determining potential swing price levels.
All due respect but the 1 minute chart is just intraday noise. Position / swing / short term traders will use the higher time frame charts (monthly, weekly & daily) & use the hourly & minute charts to fine tune their entries & exits.
Day traders will also use the higher time frame charts to determine their daily bias (bullish or bearish).
Who is selling? Institutions who bought in the 300's are selling to shorts who have buy stops located above old highs & to break out strategy traders who also have buy orders located above old highs & uniformed retail traders who think they are being smart by paying a premium.
External range liquidity has been recently purged so now internal liquidity should be sought. Therefore I'm anticipating price retracing to retest the recently defended price levels (39's, 38's & 37's). If bullishness is still alive & kicking then price should respect those levels before a further move higher. Interesting times now that price has taken out a longer term high & GLA.
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WolfofWarks - If you have an understanding of price action (not indicators & trend lines) you can anticipate where price is more than likely to reach for & see my 21st November post below. Todays high was 37.50.
I'm anticipating price moving lower (below 35.2 level) & a move higher to purge the sell side liquidity above the high created on 15th November (36.65). Note price could take a few trading sessions to get to the 36.65 & my eye is also on the 37.50 level.
Hi Jeremy - I'm not a fan / don't use any retail stuff (MA's, channels, wedges, flags, indicators etc).
I'm anticipating price moving lower (below 35.2 level) & a move higher to purge the sell side liquidity above the high created on 15th November (36.65). Note price could take a few trading sessions to get to the 36.65 & my eye is also on the 37.50 level.
Consumer price inflation UK: October 2023? 15th November 2023 @ 07:00.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar?query=inflation&view=upcoming&page=3
A review of the Weekly chart confirms a swing low has been formed & price has closed higher for the last three consecutive weeks. Weekly chart: Fare to assume a bullish bias.
Todays price print: Price closed above the previous days close therefore again a bullish bias can be assumed using this simple rule of thumb.
Jeremy - Yep! Price moved lower to a bullish order block / relatively equal lows & respected the OB & lows & popped right back up. I'm hoping price still wants to stay above the previously discussed 31 level.
People Power - It was pure & simple bread & butter price action today (a move lower to fill orders & a liquidity sweep followed by an aggressive displacement higher).