Member Info for Aberdeenman

". If for example, that’s the case and we loose our main revenue stream after say 4 years,"

If you want to worry about 4 years hence for a shares performance, AIM is likely not the best place for you to invest.

That said there are a few that have been long term investments on AIM, ASOS being the classic.

Personally, I would not be worrying about what this will be in 4 years time, just yet. Several bags to be had before you need worry about keeping longer term.

Aberdeenman

There is a little etiquette on these boards.

1. Don't post on a board you don't have shares in, unless just to ask a quick question/research, but make it clear.

2. Bad form to promote another share on a board.

3. Those with very little posting history should be aware they may not be taken very seriously, so that needs built up, always have a look at how many posts someone has, not all poster have lots of posts, but sub 50 or so can be suspicious.

Those that don't abide by the above, especially posting negatively or promoting 'taking profits' and sometimes even persuading holding on when there is a reason to sell, generally have an agenda.

Ignore or filter.

Above all make up your own mind.

In my own opinion here, there is now almost zero risk and several bags to be had.

Aberdeenman

Don't forget ODX could increase capacity by around 2.5x by moving to 24/7 production.

Still a gift buying these under 100p as potential is well north of 500p, if they increaase capcity accordingly it could reach double or treble that.

Aberdeenman

Inerestingly Spreadex are only taking closing orders in ZIOC.

Unusual, they usually only do that with companies with very very low free float, or high potential to rise.

Wishful thinking on my part maybe........

Aberdeenman

I agree it is difficult predicting p/e multiples, markets are fickle, and unless it is a very established market/company, the highest p/e multiples are simply not achieved.

That said I think the NVCT multiple is very low, but the analyst forcast has a steep drop of in predicted EBITDA from next year, hence their low multiple.

https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SP-Angel-Update-04.02.2021.pdf

I do not think that will happen with ODX, we are in a cartel almost with only three suppliers set to fulfil the UK orders for LFT's.

The Gov't almost said it themselves:

"These companies have left competion at the door" LOL

With this 'cartel' status, we have much more certainty of orders, hence I think we will obtain a higher multiple.

Aberdeenman

Bluelight,

Their 2020 EBITDA was 210.8M, and current market cap of 577m.

Their problem seems to be a significant drop off in earning, as per analyst forecasts, not so sure that will be an issue for ODX.

Anyway their multiple is currently around 2.75.

If we are to assume around 300m EBITDA and the same multiple, we get a SP of around 458p.

Personally, I expect a higher multiple as we will be using these LFT's for a long time, and due to the position as one of the gang of three, there will be very little competition.

That means certainty of orders and an extended period of significant sales stretching into years, which in turn commands a higher multiple.

Aberdeenman

Just to add to the pricing post by T0n1c, there has NOT BEEN an update from the company since that July presentation to change the expected pricing, despite the fact that it has been posted on here hundreds of times.

They have had plenty of opportunities to correct investor expectations, but have not.

So those is the figures we go on, if there was a major difference, they would have updated us by now.

Aberdeenman

15th July Presentation.

Aberdeenman

There will have been a lot of dialog between Gov't and Omega for them to be one of the gang of three to manufacture the UK LFT's into the future.

Capacity will have been mapped, hence ODX selling everything they can make, so 2m per week+

@2.50 per test margin that means they will make, on margin, more than the current market cap, note that is not revenue, but margin.

Does not take a genius to know if theymake, pre tax, more than the current market cap, the market cap will rise.

Multiple should go to somewhere around 8-10 of p/e.

That makes this a multi-bagger from current levels.

safe as houses IMO.

Aberdeenman

A few low post accounts on here trying to encourage folks to take profits, same people that normally deramp.

different tactic, same purpose, to get folk to sell to get/keep the price down.

Someone must be worried to get these thicko's on here posting.

Aberdeenman

Zero doubt that this will have a NYCT type rise.

Personally, I now think it will 10 bag from Friday's level.

Not difficult to do the maths, just a case of holding tight for a few months and reaping the (substantial) rewards.

Aberdeenman

100p about to go??

Aberdeenman

From the Gov't press release for Surescreen:

"I am hugely grateful for the considerable work that has been and will continue to be done by British suppliers, manufacturers and entrepreneurs to support our enormous scale up of testing"

Omega's coming any day now.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/british-manufacturer-surescreen-diagnostics-to-supply-20-million-rapid-lateral-flow

This is only going one way.

Aberdeenman

£5m per week EBITDA based on 2m tests with £2.5 margin, per test.

That is likely to be greater than £150m EBITDA per year, with other revenue streams, and likely they will ramp up to more than 2m tests per week.

A P/E ratio of 10 (conservative) and you can see this is an easy 10 bagger from here.

Many will be happy for 300-500p, me included.

Those getting in quick this week will still make multiples.

NYCT type rise is coming!

Aberdeenman

Will be good to see >100p again, but that is just the start.

News of first orders and this will go mental.

They haven't been recruiting loads of people for nothing.

CK and BOD not sold a single share, they know what is coming.

at ~100m tests sold a year even with a VERY conservative p/e multiple this is a 10 bagger from current SP.

Bring it on.

Aberdeenman

With 2m produced and sold per week for the foreseeable future, this is a 10 bagger from here.

we just needed the news of orders, and that now is pretty much certain given FT/Bloomberg news, and the Walbrook PR tweets.

Expecting a gap up tomorrow, and then onwards, 10 bagger within 3-9 months IMO.

Aberdeenman

Thanks Stateside.

"The Department of Health selected London-listed Omega Diagnostics,"

2m test coming in a matter of weeks, likely they can sell more if they can produce them.

looks like a 10 bagger from current prices is possible.

Should rise to over 100p in next trading day or two, then as orders arrive it is NCYT type rise from there.

Remember the multiple for p/e will now apply as this is a long term cash-generating company, a p/e multiple of 10 would not be exaggerating, but even at a lower multiple, a 10 bagger looks on the cards.

Just need order size confirmed, but I don't think there is much doubt that everything they produce will be sold.

Hope the derampers have shorts open ;-)

Aberdeenman

TW is a crook.

Extorts money from companies to avoid bad press, and slates those that don't pay.

Steer well clear of him and his ilk/mates.

Aberdeenman

All but guaranteed.

2m tests+ per week, >100m profit per year, decent multiples applied.

Fully expecting 300-500p minimum.

Got to be in it to win it.

Well done to all those that held.

Aberdeenman

No one's choice but yours, however, sentiment has always ebbed and flowed, and we have always come off lows to at least the 4-6p range.

Anne has stated, a strategic update this Q, so I am expecting sentiment to improve, and thus the SP.

Good luck whatever you decide!

Aberdeenman