Member Info for Aberdeenman

In the June 2020 financial report, they stated enough cash to last till the first half of 2022, which means the clock is ticking.

In the financial report 2021 they will not be able to confirm enough cash for the 12 months after (21/22)

So that leaves little time to announce a deal, given the report takes weeks to compile, and the company to be audited. I would therefore estimate they are targetting the next 8 weeks to announce.

Fingers crossed, and in the meantime 1.5-2p hopefully this coming week or two.

Aberdeenman

I will leave price forecasts to those that have been longer here and more knowledgeable than me, however, at the start of a commodities supercycle, vastly underpriced assets such as IRON's are on the radar of many cash-rich entities.

So seeing an uptick in investment is no surprise, BUT seeing align taking a substantial position is indicative of knowledge of an outcome.

Follow the money is totally appropriate in this case, and the return will be multiples of the current SP.

No point risking high six-figure sums for a few k.

Align was stocking up last year, but have decided to increase their stake, now that means either news is close or the return justifies it, or both.

Hopefully not long now, and in the meantime, the run up to 2p+ should keep us all happy.

Aberdeenman

Well we pushed through 0.8, I hope this continues next week and we hit that 1.5.

Needs new investors and/or Align to continue buying.

Onwards and upwards, and hopefully that juicy RNS, and an intraday suspension 'pending an announcement'

Aberdeenman

"I think this is capable of a 10x bagger. Rainbow rare earth looking strong as well."

Align are not putting in a great deal of money on a gamble.

With their holding, they will be close to management, and potentially other 'interested parties'

I don't often think it is appropriate, but in this case it certainly is a case of 'follow the money'

And I don't think they are doing it for just a bag or two, so hoping your 10 bag is about right.

Aberdeenman

Align had a tweed out the other day saying they were increasing their exposure to this, they operate on transparency, so hopefully, they will clear up their intent.

Onwards and upwards.

Aberdeenman

0.8 gone and the buying continues.

Should be a relatively fast run up to 1p as the free float diminishes.

Aberdeenman

I still think 300p will be the base case once we get clarity on orders/revenue/margin.

Even at the Finncap figures and a p/e ratio similar to that of NCYT, was are at around that base SP of 300p.

But I expect revenue /earnings to be much higher, and the multiple higher.

Aberdeenman

Who cares. What is certain though, is that this will be much higher in a relatively short period of time.

Of course we do not know some details, the mix of tests being produced, revenue and margin (although we have some idea) and full commercial details.

But still, this will be much much higher soon, we DO KNOW everything they produce will be sold, and there are only three manufacturers.

The Gov't are trying to secure a PERMANENT capacity for LFT's , that means they will pay a premuim, it is a matter of national security.

So chill and wait for the big returns.

Aberdeenman

Interesting day.

The buying continues and we are nudging above 0.8

If we continue tomorrow to push through 0.8 we should quickly get through 1p

Interesting times for this share!

Aberdeenman

And the buying continues.

Will be interesting to see if they continue beyond that 0.8p, and if so will they continue them beyond 1p?

Very interesting seeing this, especially on AIM!

Aberdeenman

Interesting that Align has/is substantially increased their already large holding here.

What has changed, well we know the outlook for ore is getting better and better, but I think there may be more to it.

They will be very close to management, so that leaves two options as to why they may increase.

1. Timing - they may know something is happening sooner than originally envisaged.

2. Price - potentially the exit for them will be at a higher price, justifying a higher stake.

could of course be a combination of the two.

It certainly bodes well, and can accelerate a price increase with an ever diminishing free float.

Of course, we may have more than Align stocking up.....

The other interesting thing is that with such a large holding, Align would never get it away at a large profit on the open market, so they must think their holding will be taken out in one go.

Aberdeenman

Free money buying at these levels.

EBITDA will be several hundred £M per year, testing set to go on for many years.

NCYT only at around 2.5 p/e multiple, we may go higher, on a 2.5 p/e/ multiple the SP here will be ~458p, assuming what we know, from the company, on prices and margins.

No brainer.

Aberdeenman

There is another explanation for the buying as well, maybe their price target is to be increased, hence buying a larger stake.

Given the outlook for ore, this could well be the case.

Aberdeenman

Could be Align, could be another outfit as well.

My guess is this will continue to be bought in chunks all the way up to 1p.

That is going to take a large chunk of free float.

As for news, I cannot believe that these guys are buying to hold for a long time, so they must be expecting news within a month or two.

Aberdeenman

That ODX can make, simple as that.

We know their general revenue, albeit there may be a slight discount for equipment costs, but that keeps the capital expenditure off the balance sheet, and it may be for free even.

So this is heading to hundreds of millions EBITDA, that means the SP is still only a fraction of what will be achieved, in other words it will bag more than once.

Just a case of keeping hold, and ignoring the ups and downs.

Aberdeenman

When NCYT was 100p, if anyone said it would go over 1000p they would have not been believed.

We can reach over 1000p, even to 1500p, just takes sufficient orders, we do not yet know if we will get that volume of orders to propel us to that kind of SP, it is not impossible.

As for the derampers, if you had listened to them a short time ago when this was in the 50's you would now be kicking yourself if you had sold. So listen to them and sell if you wish, but when this goes up to 200p and beyond, you will kick yourself for having listened to them.

This is only going one way. Only three domestic companies approved for domestic supplies, it is a matter of national security to feed them orders, WE will benefit. Simple as that.

Aberdeenman

Also good that they are mopping up the free float.

All bodes very well, they would never be able to sell what they have already accumulated, on the open market currently, so they know this is going to give them a profit, i.e. the shares will be in high demand.

Buyout makes the most sense for what they are doing.

Aberdeenman

That explains a lot, they are still buying.

As they will 'be in the know' even though they may deny it, hence being allowed to buy, I would expect they know they will be able to make a large profit within the short to medium term.

Follow the money as they say.

Aberdeenman

" id like to know what "on track" actually means"

As with most projects that are complex in business, there will be a project plan, the [pan will have milestones and timings for stages in the plan.

So on track means exactly that, each part of the deliverables are coming in on time, which hopefully mean the full project/TT is achieved in the projected timescale.

Simple sounding, but normally much complexity involved, but the project being broken down allows it to be implemented and monitored efficiently.

Aberdeenman

Chunky buying, all round figures, and not stopping as the price rises, so not so price sensitive.

Looks like someone is building a stake.

Aberdeenman