Member Info for 99icecream

Since 1 January the bid for EML has steadily risen.

TDB - Best post on here in ages !

The sequence of events was:

15/3/21 SAG Mill Purchased

24/10/22 Biden signs Exec Order 14088 Tightening sanctions on Nicaragua

22/11/22 Condor announces intention to sell the asset.

So they did intend to mine (evidenced by Mill purchase). However, they had problems raising money even before Biden, but realised it would be impossible to do so after the Exec Order was issued.

FWIW - Maybe you have all seen it, but there is a Feb 2025 Presentation, I can't see much difference from the Dec 2024 one.

Thanks - Tellodome

At some point, BRES will have to decide if it wants to start small on its own funds + borrowed money or work with a larger entity on much larger size project giving them a percentage (i.e. selling them shares at this low price). SVML have RTZ 20% and Sprott 6.7% and have a recent PFS for about 5 x the size of BRES. Initial Capex $665 million.

Tellodome - Could you be clear on what and where this comes from .... "The latest figures are 80 mil $"

We know that the PFS (RNS 19/7/2023) figure will not be correct, because it does not include the 50% of the benefaction plant (RNS 5/9/2024). Additionally, the size of the project maybe much bigger depending upon the availability of funding and the off-take deals that are possible.

They can release an RNS at anytime. If its a significant event, then it is usually done at 7:00 am so that everyone has an hour to read it and decide on the implications. Additionally, a 7:00 am RNS allows the Analysts to comment by 8:00 am.

LT - I you have been following ZIOC you will see that their big Corporate Update (planned for 11 Feb 2025), has recently been delayed until 18 March 2025 !

Based upon past events I would think it will be done well - but not necessarily on time !

Their Report Card so far :-

Getting a major Chinese Government entity to build the mine - Excellent

Getting a Guaranteed Fixed Price Deal - Excellent

Doing thinks to time and date - Terrible

ATB

These Automatic trades, are mostly Arbitrages (like the option hedging) or alternately designed to hide large buy or sell trades, by breaking them into random (in size and timing) smaller size trades, and hence not disturbing the market price.

I think you will find that I suggested that one example of an Automatic (i.e. computer generated) trade was option hedging. I did not suggest it was the only type of Automatic trade.

It is my opinion that it should, but it is not shared by others on here. My opinion is based upon 3 things.

1/ I don't think funding should take this long, so the delay IMHO is due to the work needed to move to the Main Market . The bulk of the funding (approx 70%) will come from Chinese Development Banks who will back the work of the Chinese Government owned Power China. The other 30% from off-take should be an easy sell.

2/ A move to the main market is a very rigorous process and requires a new Prospectus. The RNS shows that Kore properly surveyed their shareholdings for the only time in 7 years. This would be needed for the Prospectus.

3/ It is how I would do it ! Based upon getting the highest share price for the sellers of a few shares (say 10%) which would come from the large Kore shareholders and would be "Placed" with Institutions.

IMHO The price after financing depends to a large extent to how this is done. If the financing is announced at the same time as the company moves to the Main Market of the LSE, then the price will be much higher because the large institutional investors will be buying in at a modest discount to NPV. If the financing is announce on its own, then a much lower number will be the result.

Shore Capital don't specify the 3 Valuation Numbers, but we are probably talking of something in the region of 13p now, 26p after funding and 75p four years later when built and running.

Barraravelli - Usually it works like this. Before the funding is done the "Risked" Valuation = P x NPV, where P is the probability of funding taking place. After funding, "Unrisked" Valuation = NPV. When mine is built and running Valuation = EBITDA x N (where N is 8 or 10 or 12 or whatever).

My point is that the share price is totally disconnected from any concept of value, the price follows a random walk driven up or down by news and fund raising. This pattern continues until there is an expectation that the underlying or true value has a high probability of being realised in the near future.

I'm not a huge fan of the Lassonde Curve, but it seems to me that these small resource stocks all follow a pattern in share price terms. In this case issue at 4p, followed by positive news; share price drifts up. Fund raise share price drifts down. This cycle repeats until either the good news (and money) dries up or we get the very good news and the price rises dramatically. So in my view we are due a dramatic re-rate - but hopefully not before I have invested additional funds!

Blencowe seem to be deliberately keeping this low key, and that is OK in my opinion. The rewards will come to those who do their own research.

With respect, you are missing one of the biggest positives. So far they have explored only about 2% by area or less that 1% by volume (because they only drill to 30m) of the Graphite. The resource is currently 24.5 Million Tonnes, but could be 2 to 3 Billion Tonnes.

The Shard Facility seemed (to me) to have two benefits. Firstly, it gave Zanaga near total control of what they raised and when, without the drama of periodic larger placements. Secondly, the process was sufficently robust to satisfy the Auditors and avoid "Going Concern" issues. If they wanted to do "mates rates" the periodic placement would be easier to manipulate.