Member Info for 805slo

Oleo thank you for the post. I cant pretend to understand the technical stuff. But I am decent at listening. I found the estimate concerning from the get go because there was no clear explanation of how they made such an estimate (e.g. show us the data and math). I became more concerned when POQ stated at the Dec presentation that Tambo's resulted were very important to "verify" FOG's estimates. This importance was mentioned several times by POQ. And yet when the results were not what was expected, FOG stood by these estimates because "engineers" made them--though POQ admitted he did not understand the science.

As I see it, we don't have a successful well proving up we can access and use the asset. You can follow the science all you want but I don't think anyone is disputing there is gas down there. The question is wether you can get it and at a price that is marketable. Until there is good news, I do not see how FOG can go up. And that might not be for sometime. There are lots of great buying opportunities presenting themselves right now for investors. So, money is not going to get thrown at a high risk possibly high reward play like FOG in this environment.

Thank you for the response.

Also, after listening the presentation I had a couple of questions if anyone knows the answers. Thank you in advance.

First, how does a fault line cause an obstruction in a casing? And how do you avoid the fault line in future drilling? It was explained as someone stepping on a hose. Maybe I misunderstood POQ but I believe he also stated they were aware of the obstruction back in 2016. Yet, it was not reported to us until much later. That gave me pause.

Second, while POQ said there would be no need to raise funds in 2022, he also stated that extended flow testing might not be completed until 2023. I found this choice of words somewhat concerning as it appears he was not answering the question directly. Did this concern anyone else?

Third, the “estimate” reporting a fivefold increase in production based on “engineering” was concerning to me. He did not seem to understand the logic behind it and simply concluded that three entities all came to the same conclusion so it must be correct. Is that a normal practice in gas drilling? I am still trying to understand how we were able to report these estimates while our neighbors could not achieve similar results without a casing defect. Probably a question that cannot be answered. But it makes me concerned about the geology being consistent through the entire play…particularly when the casing obstruction is being chalked up to a fault line.

Newtofo- did they address the concern (raised in the article discussed previously) regarding the geology being consistent over that much acreage? I am just wondering how two wells would be enough to convince someone to pay 1 billion dollars for the play without more successful wells.

No problem newtofo. And for those being dismissive of the article as if it was posted by anti frackers, pay particular attention to the source. It was posted in a petroleum journal and cites to named authorities in the fracking field. I was very much hoping for good news this week or next. That was not the case. I listened to FOGs recent presentation again last night. And they state several times how important Tamboran's data would be because it would "validate" their own findings. So I am not surprised by the drop in stock price at all. And I think it will fall more over the next few weeks. For now, I'd prefer to have my money is some other stocks as there are some screaming deals right now and I made a small profit here. I suspect the overall market sentiment regarding FOG will be the same. But I will continue to follow FOG and this board for another entry opportunity. The post on this board are generally really informative and its been a breath of fresh air. BTW, listening to FOGs presentation and comparing it with Tamboran's press releases and public statements...FOG seems much more genuine and TAM seems like they are trying really hard to garnish spam and pass it off a filet mignon. Reading their stuff makes me feel like I need to take a shower. Still hoping this bird flies...it'll just be a little longer I think. But I know very little about fracking so GLA.

Can't pretend to understand the science. But this was posted by a savvy contributor and complete ignored on this board.

https://jpt.spe.org/unconventional-reservoirs-australian-exploration-experts-weigh-in-on-rosy-reserves-estimates

Yes, hopefully someone with a technical background can chime in. It appears from the estimate a 3,000 metre well could produce 15 mmscfd/day. But all this is based off of their super secret and exclusive way of making the estimate. I don't understand most of this stuff but how can we compare their super secrete exclusive way of estimating production levels when Falcon failed to provide the specificity for their estimates as well? I guess the positive is both entities have estimates that are similar and targeting the same play?

https://www.tamboran.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/220125-Second-Quarter-FY22-Activities-Report.pdf

I dont think it has anything to do with news. Just larger volume pushing the share price up. Hopefully good news is coming soon. I expect a big lift if the new is positive. Bigger than what we saw a few months ago.

Possibleshalevaluations:ExplorationUS$1,000->AppraisalUS$4,000->ProductionUS$12,0001

Can this provide any basis for possible estimates of where the stock price might go if these numbers are accurate and we achieve commerciality?

Assuming part of this money is to fund the exploration and commercialization of the Beetaloo, is this a good sign they value the potential asset in the Beetaloo as more valuable than farming down their holding for $$? They could have offered up a percentage of the acreage they hold but instead opted to sell a stake in another asset....

Perhaps one has nothing to do with the other. GLTA

Not sure if anyone can access this but if anyone has access it would be great to get a snapshot of what was discussed.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/mixed-results-in-latest-beetaloo-shale-adventure/2-1-1083495

Longknife, I am not sure why they would do that or what the benefit would be. Obviously, I have been stuck in this play for several years so I would like to get a return on my investment. And I tend to focus on the negative. But it seems even with taking the moratorium out of the timeline there has been many more fails than successes. There could be all the gas in the world down there…but if you cant get in a cost effective manner its worthless.

Kaylla has been a complete disaster. We were lifted on news of “estimated” flow rates. Seems our neighbors are having much more success. And Velkerri seems way past due on news if everything went smoothly. Loosing faith we partnered with a competent exploration partner.

I think there is much speculation and needless pumping going on here. Good luck. State side we have traded a total of 10g worth for FOG today. If this was the greatest buy of all time money would flowing in. It’s a spec play and news will drive this stock up. I was surprised about the last rise as the news was based on “estimates” without providing much insight as to how those numbers were obtained. Again, I am a long term holder since before the moratorium. I certainly hope this bird takes off. But it will only do with good news. Anything else will send us back to the bottom of the barrel. And anyone who can predict these day to day swings…I hope you are making money on it. I don’t to be able to do that. I just hold and wait.

Well maybe one day you will be right. But no, I watched similar rises be demolished by the end of the day. I have watched this stock rise on weak news and do nothing on good news. 10% up and downs been the norm with FOG. No much money coming in during many of these swings. State side we were up 5% yesterday on $120,000 worth of shares trade.

Interesting how this board has changed. I don’t think a gap up is exciting until news comes out. FOG does this. Gaps up and gaps down. GLTA.

Just my two cents. I think we had a selloff yesterday as a result of many fears about a market correction. Low liquidity makes for big jumps up and big jumps down. I think FOG is being driven by money coming back into market after some re-evaluated the risks in the equity market. Hope to hear something soon about K117. More days that pass the more concerned I get....bad news will push this stock down.

Oleo- TY for your insight. Always informative.

Guenrica- Its all good. I got thick skin. At the end of the day, we all want this bird to fly.

Oleo-

Wondering, is it fair to draw such conclusions from a slideshow? I know little about drilling. Regardless, we have drilled two wells both of which have issues. As I have stated, we do not need better marketing. We need clear data supporting the asset which will create confidence that a purchaser will be able to recreate. Until then, as someone else said, there will always be a day you can buy Falcon for cheaper.

I also think there are potential political issues to factor in. The moratorium came fast and lasted for what seemed like forever. Politics is like a pendulum and it could always swing again and create issues down the road. We need confidence in the assert and certainty on the political front. Until then, its a high risk investment. It has been interesting seeing all these new folks flock to FOG after a brief run. I will be the first to admit I could have made a lot more money on other investments over the past several years. This has been a painful ride with some many speed bumps. I am hesitantly hopeful at this point in time.

I think current gas prices have no bearing on Falcon. I think we are still at least a year from any real discussion about selling the asset…if we even get there. Fingers crossed.