Member Info for 67Sam

"Whats driving the sudden increase in many of the banks share prices?"

well, that was short lived.

Boot

Surprising that you dont understand that, given you also say you have experience of claims. 63% of initial decisions made in the year to December 2023 have been grants of protection. Why would they go to appeal? Are you laughing now or are you just having a laugh? If not then tell me why my statement is ludicrous please.

Hardup

no it works ok for me using chrome, but has always crashed using safari

Steinbeck

wow, re. my comment "expanding your vocabulary"

Job done :)

Great to see an effort being made in crafting a good post.

Does anyone have any theories as to whats driving the sudden increase in many of the banks share prices today? Is it just based on more US market highs, or a fixation with "easing monetary policy", or is there something else at play?

Nicktims

Ill give you an example: In May 2024, speaking in the House of Commons, Dame Andrea Jenkyns quoting the governments own estimate "the total cost of providing public services to a UK national is around £12,000 per person. Even the most basic calculations put the economic burden on the British taxpayer of an illegal migration population of 1.2 million at £14.4 billion".

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2024-05-07/debates/64997110-88BF-4157-8177-D9687A25841B/IllegalImmigrationCosts

This may or may not be true, but when an estimated cost is referenced to its source, it means we know who first claimed it to be factual.

Nicktims

131,000 is the cumulative figure of all migrants who have been detected arriving in small boat crossings since records were started in 2018.

You still do not provide an evidence source for your estimate of half a million pounds cost for each of those people. That still makes it appear very contentious, which is why I asked you "Whose estimate?" ie. I am asking you where is that figure published and by whom? You go on to add a further £100k based on costs of appeals, but you ignore the fact that a much smaller proportion of claims will go to appeal. Those who are granted leave to remain have no need to appeal, and those who aren't can only appeal if they provide sufficient evidence. I suspect your barrister friend is well aware of that. I do not dispute small boat crossings have a significant cost to the country, but you can see how easy it is to misinterpret figures, which is why I am asking for evidence.

Steinbeck

definitely need to work on expanding your vocabulary

Nicktims

"Estimates suggest the cost is around £65 billion" Whose estimates? Such an enormous claim should be accompanied with a reference to avoid being contentious.

denby

i'm sorry for your loss, that kind of stuff does your head in totally, so i can understand you not thinking straight. it's a pity your neighbours are being such ****5 but you're making a reasonable and necessary request. i cant understand why its cost you £44k though?

guidance such as this https://www.mylawyer.co.uk/going-onto-your-neighbours-land-a-a76076d34458/#:~:text=if%20you%20need%20to%20be,of%20the%20relevant%20land%3b%20and suggests you have the right to do it whether they like it or not and if they physically try and stop you then a county court order is all thats necessary? or give them two days notice in writing and hire a particularly aggressive builder to do it for you. theres no shortage of them in my part of the world.

LTI

''I would not even purchase any more at the current price, without a significant increase in dividend.''

That relates to already owning far more than is wise, as a percentage of my total holdings. Yes, I know, a progressive dividend and reducing share count is a very good outlook, so I continue to hold that amount. But all my gains will be eaten away in the event that it goes sub 45p again. I already posted about my fears for this share price after Reeves budget on Oct 30th. It's a good business, I dont doubt that at all. But thats exactly what makes it a sitting duck for the socialists. So Im feeling even more gloomy than I normally do about its near term prospects. I do not think a 4.75% yield is poor value for anyone buying in at this price as an entry point. It just does not feel sensible for me to add any more. I will need to spend more years waiting to see my 10% per annum return. At some point I am likely to need some of the ISA capital back, unless I sell up and retire in a 1 bed flat somewhere much cheaper than Bristol. It feels like it would be better for me to add to higher yielding stocks in my SIPP where I am down a bit (such as LGEN), or increase my holding in NESF. I am OK while Im still working and have debt fixed for another 2 years at a low rate. But really, what do I know, still having a mortgage at my age shows poor financial choices in the past.

Ipf

"fair value is about £1.30. So that is how I value LLOY"

This seems dramatically over optimistic for a share that yields very slightly in excess of 3p a year. Who would be interested in buying Lloyds at such a price, and why? I would not even purchase any more at the current price, without a significant increase in dividend. Also what is your rationale for a company to be worth three times its book value?

Asp 1

"paying out the surplus buyback pot as a 'Special'"

hahaha, or maybe they are waiting to blow the lot in just a few weeks in November when the sp is in the low fifties again. The longer Labour are in power the less confident I feel that the sp will do well. I think there will be more pressures on the housing market too with interest rates staying higher for longer and stamp duty reverting back to a 125k threshold next April. Im not quite as doom mongering as MD, but I remain fairly pessimistic on the shorter term outlook. Interesting to see if the algo kicks back in today, now the price is dipping below 58p.

Asp 1

"If they're struggling to make back buybacks"

I assume they make the same decisions to buy as we do, by considering the current share price compared to their expectation of the future share price. Perhaps I am not the only one who is concerned that the LBG share price may well drop lower on Oct 30th. I am able to sell my stake before then, just as they are able to delay purchases. I am so far undecided, but veer towards keeping it for long term. Personally I find the bumps in the road very unsettling. However, I try to remember they are ideal opportunities for the repurchase algorithm to step up a gear. The difference is that it's a much larger part of my savings at stake, compared to a very small part of their already committed profits.

Https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/policy/immigration/67175/britains-asylum-king-graham-king-clearsprings-home-office-asylum-immigration

Someones making a huge amount of money out of this.

Https://libertyinvestigates.org.uk/articles/suicides-of-asylum-seekers-in-home-office-accommodation-double-in-last-four-years/

You do not even get that at the Ritz.

Https://shepwayvox.org/2022/11/29/breaking-news-significant-outbreak-of-scabies-in-asylum-seeker-hotels-in-south-east-england/

You do not even get that at the Ritz.

The tasty morsels on page 12? Or perhaps the meat dinner on page 10.

Clearsprings Ready Homes: The company currently has two ten-year contracts with the British government to operate accommodation for asylum seekers in Wales and the South of England until 2029, at a total cost of over £1 billion. (Wikipedia)

You do not even get that at the Ritz

Https://helenbamber.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/Suffering%20and%20squalor_Final_June%202024.pdf

Conviction beliefs - an unshakable belief in something, without need for proof or evidence.

Evidence: https://helenbamber.org/sites/default/files/202406/Suffering%20and%20squalor_Final_June%202024.pdf

MV: You do not even get that at the Ritz

67Sam: Someones making a huge amount of money out of this.