Member Info for 50glass

Oversold so, going against the herd, its time to top-up.

Seems the reverse of the Tesco situation. Tesco settled out of court and then the alleged wrong doers were found innocent. In our case one wrong doer has pleaded guilty. SFO will now, I assume, want to secure more convictitions and levy a substantial fine. Let's hope the USA does not get involved; they have history in hitting non-USA companies particularly where it seems to competitively assist their own companies.

Investors receive good dividend whilst programme to improve quality of earnings takes place.

The Times India has many articles on Cairn in particular and taxation in general. Such as: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/retrospective-taxation-justified-even-us-uk-netherlands-have-done-it-says-government/articleshow/67233966.cms

As the Apollo offer is final, Berry only have to offer 1p more to secure RPC BoD approval.

Suspect that Berry are more interested in acquiring bits of RPC rather than the entire company. Berry is already burdened with debt. Putting into play the possibility of a bid may well add negiotating strength to any current discussions they could be having with Apollo about acquiring the bits of RPC that interest them.

Depletion rates are arrived at by deducting what's extracted, per field, from what's extractable. The decline rates, per field, are, for my modelling purposes, started at 7.5% p.a. then updated as actual information from the field operator becomes available. There's volumes of useful information online; http://energyskeptic.com/2015/the-difference-between-depletion-and-decline-rate-in-oil-fields/ being a good entry point to the subject.
Of course changes in stated reserves, improvements in extraction techniques, drilling of additional wells, etc. all help to confuse the picture.

Good to see we are close. My 2018 production estimate is 20.1m with an average of $64.7/boe, reflecting the hedges that were in place.
I'm cautious; my break-even has to include depletion costs to reflect a sustainable business.

I guess there are numerous financial modesl sitting on PIs computers.
For what its worth (very little I hear you say!/) my current take is:
1. break-even is $47/boe, with no reduction in debt
2. $55/boe would allow repayment of bond at termination, with associated modest increase in borrowings.
3. $60/boe is far nicer place to be; dividends start in 2022.
4. sp is highly leveraged to $/boe. We are currently a borrower who just happens to have a modest equity base.

..and the Market's reaction is not surprisiung given the general malise in this sector; see Samsung and Micron as examples. However, the sp upside now looks pretty tasty.

Broadly positive: Strong growth; increasing net profit; 5% divi yield (applying proposed 5% increase to last year's annual dividend); increase in debt to facilitate customer service and to deal with brexit - can expect the Brexit element to eventually unwind.

The FT reports today that Philip Rubens, partner at Teacher Stern, the law firm is canvassing investors to participate in a group action claim.

Even at c.190p the price looks toppy, without any clear plan to restore margins.

Looks like a good 'bolt-on' acquisition.

Timetable yet to be published. Expect it will be published, by RNS, in a month or so.

It's an old, May 2018, press article. The whole point about arbitration is that both parties have to agree to it taking place.

Understood. I feel that a direct investment in HUR is fairly high risk. With 76% of NAV in top 5 holdings, CA are displaying commitment and concentration, rather than spreading themselves so wide that they might only produce passive market performance.

For those who want to follow such things: https://shorttracker.co.uk/

And with the market price per share sitting below the offer price, it appears that the Market is not expecting a higher bid from another party.
Whilst tempted to sell and move on, I think I'll hang-on as I'm not so confident that another bid won't appear.

Note in last annual report:

103,141,033 shares are held by Double A Limited, a discretionary trust in which the extended family of Amjad Bseisu has a beneficial interest.last annual report:

Plenty on the BBC website: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46970600