Member Info for 42trader

What TV+ means for ITV (and Broadcasters in general)
BUY
Target price 240p | Published price 125p
On Monday, Apple announced its plans to launch its own TV streaming service Apple TV+, giving consumers access to original shows, movies and documentaries. For ITV and other broadcasters, there are implications from both the TV+ part of the announcement and what Apple said on Apple TV. In general, for someone like ITV which has significant content assets, the benefits probably outweigh the negatives, since Apple is a strong candidate to buy its content. However, TV+ does mark the entry of another SVOD service into the market.

What Apple announced
Apple TV+ is a premium content streaming service accessed via the Apple TV app, available on Apple TV set-top boxes (fourth-generation and Apple TV 4K), iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch. At yesterdays events, Apple announced that the Apple TV app will be offered on the Mac this Autumn, and additionally to Samsung smart TVs this spring and TVs from Vizio, Sony, LG, and others in the future.
Initially, the Apple TV+ service will feature only Apple original content, that will be exclusive and unavailable to view on any other platform. This is contrast to the likes of Netflix & Amazon prime that provide a mixture of original, and back cataloged library content.
Separately, starting in May, the Apple TV app (which is already up and running and which is free) will offer additional premium add-on subscription services from partners such as HBO, Britbox & Showtime collating multiple streaming services available to view on one platform. Although the Apple TV app is free to use, Apple TV+ will operate as an ad-free premium service, and that details on pricing will be disclosed in the coming months.

https://www.piworld.co.uk/2019/03/26/xlmedia-xlm-fy18-results-presentation-26-3-19/

£1 by April? who knows lol!
Two good rns's in the last 11 days shows the company is growing.
A nice steady climbing chart.
At the moment, I wouldn't worry about £1 but look at the sp in 2 years after it has steadily continued to climb higher.

The removal of significant regulatory restrictions has
created an important inflection point for CPP. In addition to
enabling it to extract greater value from its back book of
insurance policies, it has helped reposition the group to
drive organic growth in its core markets. This combined
with the delivery of significant cost savings, should see
profits more than double over the next two years. Whilst we
appreciate certain execution risks remain, the success to
date of the new management team leaves us to believe
these are being overly discounted. We initiate with a BUY
and 15p target price.

India drives top line growth
Ongoing revenues are set to grow at
15% pa, reflecting the strength in its
end markets and partnerships. India,
the group’s growth engine, is
expected to grow at 17% pa.

Don’t ignore the back book
Whilst in decline, the group's
restricted operations are extremely
profitable. We estimate this back
book has an NPV of £36.7m, with
optionality to improve this.

Margins should also double
Execution of the recently-announced
restructuring, alongside leveraging its
recent Globiva acquisition should
drive a doubling in group EBIT
margins by FY20.

73% upside to DCF based TP
The shares trade at a 20% discount
to our SoTP valuation of 10.4p.
Multiple analysis suggests the shares
could more than double, and we see
73% upside to our TP of 15p.

Ignore the revenue figures. It is all about the profit. Saying that, profit was stunted due to the investments made which are anticipated to save approx. £4m in the coming year. So well worth taking the hit now considering they have the cash to do it.

08/03/2017 08/29/2017 09/22/2017 10/18/2017 11/13/2017 12/07/2017 01/02/2018 01/26/2018 02/21/2018 03/19/2018 04/12/2018 05/08/2018 06/01/2018 06/27/2018 07/23/2018 08/16/2018 09/11/2018 10/05/2018 10/31/2018 11/26/2018 12/20/2018 01/15/2019 02/08/2019 03/06/2019
?We retain and confirm our price target of 100p, providing the potential for over 100% upside and exhibiting what STM ought to be worth at scale.
?This ignores the upside of:
?An already complete but not fully integrated acquisition, Carey Holdings; and
?The potential for further earnings enhancing acquisitions. Note Harbour was integrated within 6 months, adding 1,624 QROPs and £1m+ to the top line (c.5% to group revenues).
?We use a peer group of ‘at scale’ financial administration companies, but recognise that each has a slightly different business model and therefore a shifting exposure to the industry drivers outlined in our Investment case revisited, above.
?Estimates to be revisited as clarity emerges on the true upside of the Carey acquisition. ?For now we note STM’s metrics against the peer group:
Higher than average EBIT margin, proving scale will prove very advantageous to operating profits.
?Strong EPS growth (+11.5%), behind Sanne (+17.9%) and JTC (+13.3%).
?Low P/E multiple, representing value for a firm with immediate upside potential to
estimates given the recent acquisition of Carey.

2019E should see the beginning of a recovery phase. Development effort
into existing assets and diversification away from gambling should help
reduce the volatility seen of late. The free cash flow yield is pricing in no
recovery whatsoever.

? FY18A. Adjusted EBITDA (pre-share based payments) of $43.9m for the Group was
3% ahead of our $42.8m estimate. Group revenue of $117.9m contracted 14% YoY
reflecting the uncertain regulatory environments and other changes to XLMedia’s
markets over the period. Media bore the brunt of this contraction with revenues
declining 29% YoY to $47.1m; Publishing revenues grew 5% YoY to $65.8m.

? Sequential improvement. Group EBITDA improved sequentially in H2A by 10% to
$23m reflecting efforts to stabilise the business throughout the year and the timing
impact of acquisitions at the Publishing division. To a small extent, the process of
reducing exposure to lower margin activities at the Media division had already
started earlier in the year. The strategic decision to exit much of this activity is
supported by the near halving in gross margins to 23% seen at this division in H2A.

? Moving forward. The regulatory and taxation environment behind the international
market for advertising in gambling is varied and complex but the implementation of
new standards should create some certainty. In time, this could make XLMedia’s
markets more sustainable. The one opportunity that is probably not factored into
the share price is the opening-up of online sports betting in the US.

? Diversification. Growth in activities outside other regulated markets should begin
counter balancing the volatility seen in gambling. The majority of the $55m spent on
acquisitions last year is in product areas such as personal finance and bingo will go a
long way to achieving this. Additional development effort into existing Publishing
assets on an organic basis will also be made going forward.

? Forecasts stable. Net of the exit from lower margin Media activities communicated
to the market earlier this year, we see low-mid single digit revenue growth going
forward. Our 2019E adjusted EBITDA forecast of $40.2m (-8% YoY) is unchanged and
we introduce a new 2020E adjusted EBITDA estimate of $42.5m (+6% Y0Y). The latter
reflects only a very low (60bp) recovery in EBITDA margin to 42.8%.

? High FCF yield. Free cash flow in 2019E should amount to c$22m, or 15% of the
group’s market capitalisation. The market is not pricing in any stability, let alone
recovery. This stock could surprise materially on the upside.

Probably not worth a huge amount, but if successful for the council could well see other councils implementing.

Does anyone know how big WIMC are? Seems to me they probably over estimated the figures they anticipated to use and that they can only order depending on their customers. Seems their customers are happy though.
This is still only one product though out of many with more products on their way such as the soon to be launched "Lokies".

NAV price is 42p which makes the current price of 29p seem cheap.
The problem is, the bod have clearly lied, hiding the problems and it makes you wonder if there is more bad news to come. I'd imagine there are II's wanting out hinted by the continual drop straight through the only support that was at 40p. Also, what will be the non-underlying restructuring costs and losses associated with the termination of the contract for Ministry of Defence properties? Will BILB show a loss in the next results? Operating margins are pretty low so it will not take a lot to go from profit to loss.
Where the NAV price is quite good, the actual Tangible price is not.The tangible value being what would be left if the company went into liquidation.
Worth waiting on next results to see actual figures and time to give the price a chance to stop dropping before even considering buying in.

SDX Energy (SDX LN/CN)1,6: BUY, £0.65; 2018 results – Overall 2018 production was c. 3.6 mboe/d (GMP FEe: 3.7 mboe/d).
Current production is c. 3.4 mboe/d (GMP FEe 1Q18: 4.0 mboe/d), consisting of 1.8 mboe/d from NW Gemsa in Egypt (GMP
FEe 1Q18: 2.3 mboe/d), 0.8 bbl/d from Meseda in Egypt (GMP FEe 1Q18: 0.9 mbbl/d) and 0.8 mboe/d from Morocco (GMP
FEe 1Q18: 0.8 mboe/d). Current Meseda and Morocco production are up on 2018 however NW Gemsa is lower due to three
wells offline for workovers, the company expects these wells will come back on stream during 2Q and 3Q19 adding 500-750
boe/d gross production. The 2019 gross production target at NW Gemsa is 3.4-3.6 mboe/d (GMP FEe: 3.4 mboe/d), 4.0 - 4.2
mbbl/d at Meseda (GMP FEe: 4.0 mbbl/d), 50-60 mmcf/d plateau at South Disouq with first gas mid-2019 as previously
guided and 9-11 mmcf/d in Morocco as previously guided. 2019 capex guidance is c. US$36 mm (GMP FEe: US$35 mm)
consisting of US$2 mm in NW Gemsa (GMP FEe: US$1 mm), US$4 mm in Meseda (GMP FEe: US$4 mm), US$22 mm in South
Disouq (GMP FEe: US$22 mm) and US$8 mm in Morocco (GMP FEe: US$8 mm). Cash at YE18 was c. US$17.4 mm (GMP FEe: c.
US$17.8 mm) with no debt drawn. A US$7.65 mm reduction in receivables was achieved post-year end. YE18 WI 2P reserves
were 13.1 mmboe (YE17: 13.5 mmboe). The company plans to relocate its corporate residence from Canada to the UK and
delist from the TSX-V in 2Q19. Market reaction: the significant reduction in receivables post year end is very good news and continues a trend of a 36% reduction, from US$37.7 mm to US$24.3 mm, between YE17 and YE18. The rest of the numbers are in line with what we carried.

With the share price drop over the last so many months, maybe the order was written off but now itsgame on, ableit, at a lower price but potentially a higher unit figure.

A mixed bag rns i think.
The decrease by 500 units expected to already of been sold by now would of likely be part of the depressed share price.
I would say WIMC have used Starcom’s financial position to lower the unit price.
So, potentially WIMC may order 30k units, but no gurantee. They have probably said this figure instead of the original 20k to get the price down too. Only time will tell. Still, another 66000 dollars should be ordered.

NAV here of 57p.
P/E of 5.87 vs industry average of 8.83.
81% below broker target.
50% below sector.
Plenty of skin by bod.
Divi paying.

Plenty of positives.

Well that breakout has given another small rise today.
Sadly, BOO is now hitting resistance and the 200 EMA.
It will probably have a day or few testing, and then if it can break out again, 215p will be the next test.
On another positive note, today Boo broke out of another trend line, needs to hold above it for a few days which will give the STOCH a chance to pull back. It will be very bullish if the 200 EMA can be passed.

http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=30420664925510499371.png

http://www.liberum.com/videos/frontierstadia

Revenues up, but profits down and debt increased. Analyst target dropped to 2300 from 2800.
Back to 1300's I think.

Good solid stock until a profit warning happens and then it crashes big style as operating margins are so low at just 2%. May see it steady when the dividend comes at end of the month but could well drop further after that. 270p on its way imo and if that does not hold, 195p.

I think could see 210p tops here possible in the next week in the run up to the dividend.
P/E value is good, below the industry average.
It's been a good run from 150'sp this year but looking over brought now on the STOCH and RSI as well as hitting the top of a downward trend.
A big problem here is the debt, £141.6m, being almost half of the asset value of the company, £318.4m, that has only made £12.5m profit in 2018. 2019 looks better but still the debt is a big weight with it also increasing from previous results. Ideally if a company has debt, it wants to be 3x profit at maximum which it clearly is not.
It's a good company, but looking over brought and needs to reduce it's debt.

Rise today imo comes from orders being hit of investors waiting for a breakout. Still early to confirm, but looking good if it holds this price at end of the day.