Member Info for 42trader

Revised valuation

We have revised our valuation to reflect the full dilution from the share and convertible bond issue. Our model now assumes fully diluted shares in issue of 9,410m (excluding employee exceptional target awards).

Our base case NPV for the project using $125/t POLY4 and an 8% WACC is $8.353bn, equating to a fully diluted NPV of 68p per share. We set our target price at c.60% P/NPV, or 40p (down from 50p).

Our valuation has the potential to be quickly flexed higher as the project is derisked and moves towards first production in 2021. If we roll forward our NPV to that point and apply spot POLY4 pricing ($140/t), our NPV rises to 97p.

Richard Knight's actual report is even more interesting.

Nice rise today upon the steady rise we have seen here.
Broken above resistance level and now broken out of the downward trend channel.
Looking at 65p and 75p as the next proper resistance levels.

Bought back in today and intending to add at resistance levels of 100p and then 81p if ITV continues to drop.This is the negatives imo:This year is not looking great for ITV in regards to advertising revenues and is forecast to be negative come the end of the year compared to last year. Brexit, time of Easter and lack of world cup football which boosted revenues last year by 22%.Debt increased £54m to £981m primarily due to bond yields in the pension.Positives:P/E value of 8.33 vs 9.63 Industry average.Debt well within manageable parameters for a company making £500m profit a year.Though advertising revenues will be down on previous year they will be up on 2017. (2018 was a particularly strong year).Extremely good figures for ROCE (Return on Capital) and ROE (Return on Equity).One of the highest dividend payers. (They could well drop this in the future).Recent BOD buys.A+ score for Magic Formula.Qualifies for Benjamin Graham Deep Value Checklist.Good Health trend score.ITV is confident of ‘good’ organic growth in 2019 given more revenue (£120m at least) currently secured compared to the same period last year.Britbox release in H2.No shorts registered.So, ITV will not have a great year for advertising when compared to last year and this is what has been driving the sp down. IMO it has got to be extremely good value for money now. The share price is currently at a broad resistance level. If this breaks there is more resistance at 100p and then if that fails 81p. No one really knows where a share price will go, but this is value now and further drops will imo be gifts to those wanting to buy.As per usual.....bla bla bla......DYOR

Resistance broken withe the news received today. 750p on its way but I may now have to change my target to next resistance of 800p.

Market reaction
We had already assumed a rapid decline at Gemsa given the maturity of the asset and have always been cautious on the
production figures in Morocco and first gas at South Disouq. In each case, the new guidance is now more aligned with
what we carried.
Recommendation: BUY rating reiterated with £0.65 target price
The story continues to be about production and cash flow growth. Our target price of £0.65 per share has been set close
to our ReNAV.
The shares trade at EV/DACF multiples of only 2.5x for 2019 and 1.6x for 2020.

I use iWeb and have used them for years. £5 flat fee. Only once have I had a problem where site was down for a day. Otherwise I’ve been happy with them.

Market reaction: negative on the reduced production guidance particularly in Morocco
however we note we had already assumed a rapid decline at Gemsa given the maturity of the asset and have always been
cautious on the production figures in Morocco and first gas at South Disouq. In each case, the new guidance is now more
aligned with what we carried.

Explains the drop over the last 6 months. Did a dummy buy and offered 28p and now 29p. Not big enough a drop to warrant adding as I have a price already at 30p.
While todays report is negative, I believe it has been factored into the sp already making the departure of the CEO good news for the company.
I expect the sp will go sideways for a while but I don't expect a huge drop as it is factored in imo.

Ouch.

Yep, looks like it.

Currently I am not in this share. I have traded it a short while back.
Personally, if I was in with an average of 197, I would also hold and possible add some at 125p.
It's a tough decision though and only one you can make. This share hinges on how well it can do in the US and there is always a possibility of a buyout, though I would not buy a share on the chance of it being taken over.

gl

Looks very close.

http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=29376931755382921430.png

link correction.

I don't usually use a monthly chart, but it seemed appropriate for this share to show where the sp may go to.http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=29376931755382921430.pngTempting to buy some in the region of 120p-125p.A very risky sector imo, with new regulations in the uk. Could more laws come in and possibly stricter control in the US too?I think the sensible investors will avoid and wait to see how things pan out.

A lot of resistance at 224p so that could be a struggle to break.
At 220p, it is the top of a downward trend on a weekly chart.
STOCH and RSI are looking over bought.
I don't think this share will see 300p again. Back then it had a debt of £35m while net profits were around £33m. Today, debt is over £140m while the profits are less than 2013.
For me, 225p will be the absolute top unless results come in smashing targets. The debt is simply too high for the profit the company is making.
N-singer has a target price of 240p.

Can't find any news out today so quite possible someone with insight is buying ahead of the results.
Next month there will also be the final dividend.
NAV is 50p, so quite under valued.
PE of 6.65 is half of what the industry average is.
With the change of direction from a downward price trend this is looking good.
On the negative, it is over bought on both RSI and STOCH.
My hunch will be the sp will shoot up and peak around 50p once it breaks the resistance before a retrace and then continue going higher.

Thanks for the post.

Took longer than I expected, but there is the 210p share price. On a longer time scale of a weekly chart, DEVO is hitting the top of the trending channel.

An extract from the recent Arden report:

What might the OBA be worth?

Our scenarios and sensitivity analysis display a wide potential valuation range
from as low as US$14m to as high as US$669m. What we would take away from
this is that it is quite possible for the OBA to have a standalone value that is very
material in the context of Amerisur’s current market cap.
The key for realising this initially is establishing third-party volumes and cash flows,
and subsequently being able to ramp these up. Our analysis indicates that if these
things happen, and if they persuade the market to begin allocating a standalone
value for the OBA in the Amerisur stock price, then this could be material for the
shares.