Member Info for 42trader

5.5p

This is getting traded and sold of resistance. Could see 850 range at some stage where I'd imagine traders will pile in again.

http://www.chartupload.com/viewer.php?file=38050328851895981598.png

The support is not actually broken yet, as shown on the chart. It may well carry on down still, but could also bounce from here too. Lines shown below are also support, but not as strong.

Today was the ex divi day. On these days the share price always drops the price of the divi on opening. (don't ask me why, it makes divi payments rather pointless in my view).
https://finance.zacks.com/stock-price-change-dividend-paid-3571.html
I'm a little annoyed with myself for buying the other day and not waiting to today as a little trick I learnt was to buy on ex-divi day, as the price would drop the divi amount and you are still entitled to the divi until the end of this day.

Now, with the sp being so close to the support, dropping the sp the price of the divi in the morning will likely trigger a lot of stops. If you look at the trades gone through, there is a lot "A" trades which are likely the stops being taken out.
This can cause a snowball affect and send the price tumbling. At this stage, I can not tell if the support will hold or not but the fundalmentals are not bad, so it's not a bad company to hold and add on any significant drops.
There is a large trade for 10:36 which will be a sell and then a smaller trade at 12:08 ( but still large) that will be a buy.
I have doubled up here at 138p.

gla

Yep

Are you in SO4?

I Had some Luce at 33p.

Looks interesting here and slightly under valued. Still, it is a very long term play with more equity raise to come in the future.

Just woke up, did i miss anything?

Looking even more under valued now.

Liberum View - expecting an FY22 release
The two year development cycle would suggest a game launch in the summer onwards of calendar year 2021. There will clearly be a lot of speculation as to the IP. We note it is again a “major global IP” and that the game is likely to be launched on both console and PC. Frontier’s first self-published licenced title, Jurassic World Evolution, released in June 2018 on PC, PlayStation 4 and Xbox One alongside the theatrical release of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom achieved 1 million base game unit sales in five weeks and 2 million base game units in seven months. Therefore, we guess this game could have a similar profile, although it’s unknown at this stage as to whether it may benefit from a film launch or a similar ‘IP event’. The timing of this game would suggest it is likely to be Frontier’s sixth or seventh game. We know franchise IV will be released this year (it will be own IP) and we await an announcement of franchise V at some point (it is possible that if it is licenced IP we may hear more about the game a year or more before launch).
Impact on forecasts - 10% upgrade to FY22 EPS
We assume this game is launched in the financial year ending May 31 2022. Previously we assumed two games launched in the year contributing £40m in total. We now assume that today’s announced game contributes £40m (versus the £60m+ that we expect JWE to deliver this year) and we still assume a second game generating £20m in sales. We have made some small revisions to our other franchise assumptions such that we now forecast FY22 revenues of £125m (previously £111m). In the income statement we have lowered our gross margin assumption from 71% to 66% (assuming some royalties) and increased our forecast marketing spend in the year by £1m. The net result is our EPS increases by 10% from 65p to 72p.

The report is very flatering, but the share is being reliant on alliances in the coming year.
No forecast profit for the next two years and it could be longer.
Bear in mind, Edison had a target price a few years ago at 61p and now its target is 26p.
The actual NAV per share is about 3.2p.

N+1 Singer view
CORPORATE
22 February 2019
Technology
Current price*: 82.00p Mkt cap (£m): 102
Oxford Metrics released a brief AGM statement yesterday afternoon highlighting a positive start to the new financial
year. Based on trading performance to date, management see traction as consistent with achieving FY’19 market expectations. In line with previous years, the group’s revenues are expected to be second half weighted, yet we are encouraged by management comments regarding strong pipelines building across the business. Management remain on track to deliver on its strategic goals of doubling profits and tripling recurring revenues by FY’21. We make no changes to forecasts, and expect group revenue growth of >10% y/y (constant currency) to continue through FY’19.
Event
Oxford Metrics released a brief AGM statement yesterday highlighting a positive start to FY’19. Based on current trading performance, management believe that trading is in line with market expectations for the full year. Group revenues are expected to be second half weighted as in previous years; we are encouraged by management comments regarding strong pipelines building across the business.
Impact on earnings & valuation
We are not making any changes to our forecasts on the back of this announcement. The shares trade on a Dec’19 EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x, which we see as attractive for an IP-rich company with a strong record of value creation and cash generation. Our SOTP model (using 15.4x and 26.0x PER for Vicon and Yotta respectively) results in an intrinsic value of 90p, offering further upside to investors, with the potential for further accretion from bolt-on acquisitions.

N +1 Singer have not give a target price but have given an intrinsic value of 90p.

Bought in here this morning. As ResearchAnalyst1 has pointed out, massively under valued. The biggest negative I see is the fact it is an Israeli company and I do not think the market fully trusts them.

The company continues to review the technical data from its SRM-3 well in the
Ramadan concession (SDX 12.75% working interest) in the Gulf of Suez. This well
encountered approximately 110 feet of net play across three horizons. The partners
are now preparing to test this well to determine if commercial flow rates can be
achieved.
Financials
We are reducing our 2019 profits to reflect the lower guidance for the mature areas of
Egypt as we mentioned earlier. We are also assuming now that the South Disouq
development will start in the middle of the year rather than the early part of the year.
This has led us to reduce our 2019 profits to US$22.2 million, down from US$35.5
million. There are modest reductions in subsequent years.
The balance sheet remains stronger than we had expected. This is due to SDX Energy
being able to recover an additional US$4.5 million of receivables in Egypt in Q4 and
the timing of the capital expenditure with the development of the South Disouq
concession shifting into calendar year 2019. This has left net cash at the end of the
fiscal year standing at approximately US$17 million which is ahead of our original
forecast of US$10 million. The company has additional liquidity by means of an
undrawn US$10 million credit facility for Morocco. This will provide the company with
more than sufficient funds for its developments and drilling programme. The start-up of
the South Disouq development will see the group generate net free cash flow and give
management the funds to accelerate the growth of the business further.
Corporate residence will move to the UK
The company has decided that, with its shareholder base moving increasingly to the
UK, it will move its corporate residence from Canada to the UK and will delist from the
TSXV market. This will allow the company to benefit from savings in Administrative
costs and achieve a more tax efficient corporate structure. This is subject to
shareholder and court approval.
Valuation
Using the industry standard valuation of a discounted cash flow analysis, we derive a
RENAV (Risked Exploration Net Asset Value) of 115.2 p/share which is unchanged on
our previous valuation with the higher net cash balances being offset by lower
production from Egypt. Investors should view any valuation in the context of their own
assessments of the relevant risk.

SDX Energy has released an operations and corporate update. Everything would
appear to be progressing well. After completing its 2018 drilling programmes in
Morocco and Egypt, the company has now acquired additional seismic data in each of
these locations and this is now being processed to identify additional prospects which
will be drilled in two further exciting exploration programmes in both Morocco and
Egypt during 2019/20. These programmes have the potential of adding significant
reserves and resources. The company has a strong balance sheet which will allow
management to complete these programmes with existing resources and, once the
South Disouq fields are on stream, the company will have significant free cash flow
which can be used to accelerate this growth.
Morocco
The company completed a successful nine well drilling programme in 2018 which
resulted in five commercial discoveries in Sebou concessions and two additional
discoveries in the Lalla Mimouna concession which will be tested again during the
upcoming drilling programme. After the 2018 drilling campaign, management acquired
additional 3D seismic data over the Gharb Centre concession. This has resulted in
multiple leads and prospects being identified. Further analysis of this data is required,
but the initial assessment is exciting and management is looking to put together a
further drilling programme covering 12 wells to commence in H2 2019 and complete in
H1 2020. Most of these wells will be drilled in the Gharb Centre licence which is
adjacent to Sebou where the company enjoyed significant success in its last
campaign. Management is also eager to retest the LNB-1 and LMS-1 wells in the Lalla
Mimouna concession where gas and liquids potential was found but the wells were not
able to be tested due to reservoir damage. SDX is looking to further increase
production from Morocco with management looking to increase gross gas production
up to 9 – 11 mmcf/day in 2019 which compares to average production in 2017 of 5.1
mmcf/day. With a high gas price, low operating costs and a benign tax regime this
production will deliver a significant boost to group cash flows.
Egypt
The main focus in Egypt is on developing the discoveries in the South Disouq
concession where SDX is operator with a 55% working interest. The four discoveries,
SD-1x, 3x and 4x and Ibn Yunus, are expected to be brought on stream in the middle
of 2019 at a gross plateau rate of 50 – 60 mmcf/day. A gas price (US$2.85/mcf) has
been agreed and construction of the central processing facility and export pipeline
started. This should allow the group to enjoy a significant increase in cash flows. SDX
has acquired additional 3D seismic data over the concession and this is being
interpreted. At present, the company is looking to drill a further two exploration wells in
2019. However, it should be noted that there are additional prospects to drill and the
number of wells in this drilling progra

Operations update
SDX Energy has released an operations and corporate update. We
think that everything is progressing well and, after a relatively quiet
end to the year, the Company has acquired additional seismic data
which has identified additional prospects. It is now gearing up to
start two exciting exploration programmes in Morocco and Egypt in
2019 which have the potential of adding significant reserves and
resources.
? Morocco. The company has acquired further 3D seismic data on the
Gharb Centre concession and this has identified multiple leads and
prospects. Management is now in the process of putting together a 12
well drilling programme which will commence in the second half of
2019 and be completed in H1 2020. Most of these wells will be drilled
in the Gharb Centre concession but the programme will also include
the re-testing of the LNB-1 and LMS-1 wells in the Lalla Mimouna
concession which, as part of the 2018 drilling campaign, encountered
gas and liquids potential but were unable to be tested due to reservoir
damage.
? Egypt. Most attention is on bringing the discoveries in the South
Disouq concession on stream which is all progressing as expected
with production start-up anticipated for the middle of the year. The
company has acquired further 3D seismic data over this concession
and two additional exploration wells are expected to be drilled in 2019.
Production at its other mature assets in 2019 would appear to be lower
than originally forecast.
? Financials. The balance sheet remains strong. SDX Energy has been
able to recover an additional US$4.5 million of receivables in Egypt
and this has left net cash at the end of the fiscal year standing at
approximately US$17 million which is ahead of our original forecast of
US$10 million. Against this, the lower production in 2019 will lead to a
reduction in our 2019 profits from US$35 million to US$22 million and
a very modest reduction in subsequent years.
? Valuation. Using the industry standard valuation of a discounted cash
flow analysis, we derive a RENAV (Risked Exploration Net Asset
Value) of 115.2 p/share which is unchanged from our previous
valuation with the higher net cash balances being offset by lower
production from Egypt. Investors should view any valuation in the
context of their own assessments of the relevant risks.

Well still in a downward trend but it can't go too much lower and happy to add from here down. Pretty much at bargain basement now.

Wow, very busy day buying today, FDEV, STM, RWI, SDX, XLM and finally REDD.

It will probably drift slightly lower over the coming weeks but not massively. Don't expect anything positive for quite a long time now.
NAV of the company is aprrox. 42p

My kind of share, nice and quiet. Thanks.