Member Info for 42trader

Lord Moynihan resigned with immediate effect. Got to wonder if there is another reason behind the one given otherwise why didn't he work until a replacement was found?
Poor results and 2 bod gone in 3 months.

250p target price
Our 250p target price equates to a CY20E P/NAV of 0.84x, a P/E of 12.0x and DPS yield of 4.0%. Should U+I sustain higher returns, in line with its 12% total return target, we would see further upside to our target price.
We use a return on equity analysis to derive our target price. We compare our forecasts against a view of sustainable return on equity (in the absence of yield shift), cost of equity and long-term growth discounted back to a current value.

We build up individual company cost of equity, using specific risk profiles over a risk-free rate, benchmarked against CAPM.

250p target price
Our 250p target price equates to a CY20E P/NAV of 0.84x, a P/E of 12.0x and DPS yield of 4.0%. Should U+I sustain higher returns, in line with its 12% total return target, we would see further upside to our target price.
We use a return on equity analysis to derive our target price. We compare our forecasts against a view of sustainable return on equity (in the absence of yield shift), cost of equity and long-term growth discounted back to a current value.

We build up individual company cost of equity, using specific risk profiles over a risk-free rate, benchmarked against CAPM.

Monetising the c.£11.5bn+ pipeline
Progress continues to be made on the development pipeline, where existing major projects alone have the potential to deliver >£160m of profit by 2034. H2 should see the outcome of planning consent on £2.7bn of GDV and the submission for a further £1bn of GDV at Westminster Industrial Estate and Morden Wharf. Obtaining consent should also provide a step-change in development management fees, which drop through at a 50% margin.

Clear milestones to monetisation
There are clear milestones to monetising U+I’s development pipeline. H2 should see five major planning decisions totalling £2.7bn of GDV (Mayfield, 8 Albert Embankment, Landmark Court, Kensington Church St, Tunbridge Wells) which should help bring in capital partners and with it incremental development management fees. U+I has had strong interest from potential
capital partners. H2 will also see the submission of plans for a further £1bn of GDV at Westminster Industrial Estate and Morden Wharf. A sixth project, Cambridge Northern Fringe East, is expected to get planning consent in 2022.

From just these six projects above, target profits for U+I is expected to be a total of around £160m by 2034 (vs a current market cap of £187m), also creating total development management fees of c.£60m across the same time horizon.

Nine identified major PPP projects with a GDV of c.£7bn
The development pipeline currently contains nine identified major PPP projects, with a total GDV of c.£7bn (32% of group gross assets). On average, management expects to deliver a 5-10% profit on GDV for U+I, at anywhere between a 12% and a 35% IRR. Equity returns can be 2-5x before any transfer to the Investment portfolio.

Mayfield is expected to deliver the largest profit to U+I (£50m at the midpoint); we provide more detail on the scheme below. The Cambridge Northern Fringe East (CNFE) scheme is expected to deliver the largest equity return on investment of 5x at the mid-point of the expected profit range.

Transitioning the Investment portfolio - Over the next five years, we expect the proportion of pure-Retail assets to decrease from c.45% of the portfolio today, to <15%, mainly through disposals. At the same time, management has identified up to £175m of regeneration assets that should strengthen the Investment portfolio by being transferred-in once complete (>£50m of which may transfer over the next 18-24 months).

20% reduction of the cost base by March 2022 – A business optimisation programme is underway to reduce annualised costs by c.£4m p.a. (c.20% of the FY19 cost base) by March 2022. In the first six months of the FY, an annualised £1m has already been saved and there is a clear path to realising the remaining £3m over the next 28 months.

Distributing excess returns – Excess returns are typically returned to shareholders through special dividends. However, given the current valuation (50% discount to NAV), we expect alternative distribution methods are being considered, including the use of share buybacks.

Regenerating land through partnership

U+I has a substantial c.£11.5bn+ pipeline of regeneration projects which should generate significant long-term development profits. The company is approaching an inflection point, where it will begin to substantially monetise its development pipeline whilst reducing the FY19 cost base by c.20%, thus lifting profits. U+I’s partnership approach, in which its partners typically seed land into JVs, and the complex nature of its projects, provide the basis for solid relative returns on capital and aligned incentives as planning and development are progressed.

Regenerating land and adding value – U+I is a specialist regeneration developer and investor, which seeks to transform parts of towns and cities through a mix of commercial and residential real estate uses. The group creates value by unlocking the full potential of land and assets. Projects target densely populated areas around the London City Region (within one-hour’s commute from Central London), Manchester and Dublin.

Growing long-term demand – Market growth is underpinned by increasing economic, political and social demand for better utilising the UK’s limited space, of which a large proportion is owned by public bodies.
With public purses in many areas empty or running low, there is an opportunity for U+I to work with the public sector to deliver schemes in areas that are fundamentally under-supplied, transforming them into vibrant urban communities for mixed-uses.

High barriers to entry for complex regeneration – The scale and complexity of mixed-use regeneration projects create a high barrier to entry. U+I has the ability to secure funding for its PPP projects, and has relationships with relevant partners that give it a competitive advantage.

A clear plan to deliver financial targets – U+I has a clear vision, strategy and timetable to deliver its financial targets, namely 12% post-tax total returns by 2022/23 and 10% p.a. returns on the Investment portfolio. A long and large pipeline (c.£11.5bn+) should underpin substantial long-term upside. We conservatively forecast 7% p.a. average total returns to FY22E.

Approaching an inflection point - U+I is approaching an inflection point, where five planning determinations for c.£2.7bn of gross development value (GDV) are expected over the next five months. This will enable monetisation of WIP and the delivery of substantial profits (we show on page 14 six schemes that could deliver profits almost the size of U+I’s current market cap) as well as a step-change in development management fees, which should reach £6.5m p.a. by FY22E (up from £2.5m in FY19).

This is massively under valued and unnoticed on the whole. No surprise of a drop now after the dividend.
With the recent very large buys from the bod so they can get their dividend of approx 7% and which will likely rise to 10% when the profits increase, via a special dividend. They do have a history of paying large special dividends out.
This has a PE of just 7.5
PEG of 0.19
NAV of £2.88 (50% discount to current price).
Due to the nature of this business the profits come in irregular phases which had dropped the eps and share price allowing for this low price to buy. EPS and profits are due to massively increase in the next 6 months.
Overall, very under valued and I'm adding when I can, happy to hold and wait while collecting a very good dividend.

Not looked for a week. Anything happened?

Results have improved greatly but the company is still loss making by £2.5m.
You could buy the company for £6.6m but that would then cost you an additional £40m in debt. It's going to take a few years to clear the debt if RGD do become profitable.
finncap have set a target price of 7.5p.

As much as I want to see rock sp rise, I wish people would stop telling others to load up.
Post research, facts or technical data but please stop with the ramping and trying to get people to buy on your words of "this is going to fly". It is unethical.

.... and a shed load more of BOD buys.

Well there is the low 30's I suggested may happen. Over sold imo and should bounce as it is still a very solid company. Added.

Anyone else got that supermarket sweep song stuck in their head?

Well, I've set a sell price at just under 2p to give the mm something to aim for. I can always adjust it later.

Just need to have patience. To be 150% up within the first hour shows there is demand for this. It will rise in stages i'm guessing. 1p is a resistance level as will 2p be. Even after the rise this is still a potential multi bagger. just need to wait for the results of the other drills.

Bit of resistance at this price now. Will likely take out a few sellers then could easily see 2p next. With so little shares available it can move very quickly, but that can work both ways too.

86% up
....and to think this was 90p back in 2013. Just broke out of downward trend.

About 17% down at one stage today now 7% up. Clearly taken down to allow a £10k but go through and take out a few stops. Clearly a case of taking off the poor to give to the rich and easily done on a share with low liquidity.

I wouldn't read too much into buys and sells. Half the time they list as a buy when it's a sell and vice versa. As for small trades, well it could be part of a bigger trade put through in bits but more likely a cfd or spread bet trade.

correction*

wait on a confirmed breakout of 160p