IC review17 Sep 2022 10:52
Arcontech’s compelling value opportunity
Operating profit beats forecasts by 8 per cent
Net cash up 12 per cent to £6mn (45p a share)
Annual dividend realised 18 per cent to 3.25p a share
Aim-traded financial software provider Arcontech (ARC:82p) beat house broker FinnCap’s operating profit forecasts by 8 per cent, albeit they had been downgraded last autumn after one customer decided to scale back its market data spend, and another decided not to renew its contract because it is switching to a solution in a legacy, bundled contract.
Adjusted operating profit of £0.87mn was still a fifth below the prior year result on 9 per cent lower revenue of £2.76mn, but the fact that the board lifted the dividend 18 per cent to 3.25p a share and issued an upbeat trading outlook is well worth noting. That’s because several years of inactivity during the Covid-19 pandemic (at many of the company’s clients and prospects) has created pent-up demand and a robust pipeline of contract opportunities.
Although conditions remain uncertain, as economies globally face well-documented challenges, Arcontech’s directors are “confident that some of the current interest will be converted to firm orders and start to build back the revenue lost during the pandemic”. Also, as rivals push through price increases, Arcontech is well-placed to capitalise by offering its expanding range of solutions at attractive prices.
So, although FinnCap conservatively pencils in current-year revenue of £2.65mn to factor in a full 12-month impact from last autumn’s contract losses, analysts at the brokerage “see substantial upside” to their forecasts and note that Arcontech’s operational leverage means that it could drive double-digit growth to operating profit estimates of £0.65mn. Furthermore, the company is a prodigious cash generator, delivering £0.97mn of free cash flow in the 2021-22 financial year, implying a free cash flow yield of 8.8 per cent, and boosting net cash to £6mn (45p a share), a sum equating to more than half its £11mn market capitalisation.
The bumper cash flow performance enabled the board to raise the payout per share by 18 per cent to 3.25p, declared from adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 6.5p. On this basis, the shares are priced on a cash-adjusted PE ratio of six and offer a dividend yield of 3.9 per cent. FinnCap believes that the dividend could be hiked to 3.6p a share in the current financial year without making a dent in the cash pile. This is based on an ultra-conservative EPS estimate of 4.9p, implying the shares offer a prospective dividend yield of 4.4 per cent and are priced on a cash-adjusted forward PE ratio of 7.5.