Member Info for 42trader

Says the person who has been banging on for the last one and a half years about how it is going to rerate soon. Your average must be pretty high considering you first started your ramping when it was in the 70’s!

Well certainly good news today. But this is still a high risk share and pretty illiquid and a few years off from making profit. So the EV is immaterial as the company, like most in its sector have a high burn rate of cash. Spread is quite high to buy or sell on any considerable amount making it hard to buy or sell. A good example of this is I was able to buy the other day at 7.1p but only about £900. More than that and the buy price jumped to 7.7p. So this will also make it hard to sell large amounts unless you sell on days where there is massive demand on good news.
As I said this is high risk, but if your prepared to loose all invested it could it high returns, but expect to hold a couple of years or more for the potential of a 10 bagger or more if it does not get bought out.

If the bod accept the offer then it would go out to other investors, pi and ii to vote to accept or not. Then if accepted 105p would be the price you would get a few weeks later. So, you could be waiting a couple of months for it from today. If you don't want to accept then vote no or if you think another offer may come in at a higher price it is worth waiting. Other wise you may as well sell now or when you see a high price. I sold today at 104.07p.

I done worse. Bought Luce a few years ago in the 30’s and sold for 30% profit. It went on to 10 bag.

Yes I would say it is a cheap offer. Hopefully a counter bid will come in.

Sorry to hear you sold yesterday. Sods law. The signs were all there for an increase in the sp and it is no surprise an offer came in as the project profits and turnaround makes hyve cheap.

On the contrary, ST is pretty good imo. No expert gets it right all the time. ST looks at he figures and often sees value, but he can not predict the future. I look at most of his buy signals and then do my own research. Often I find he finds me some good stocks to buy into, but not always straight away. I will often wait with his tips when the share is in a downward slide, and look at support levels. If the support is hit I then look to see if there are any factors that have warranted the further drop, if not I may then buy in. It seems to work for me.

Well the market has lost confidence here. Whether there is more to what’s going on who really knows but it is a risk trying to catch a falling knife. No one knows yet if the bottom has been hit or not yet. One thing that I don’t like is the incredibly small profit margins the company works on.
Saying all that, expect a lift in the sp tomorrow as IC have released an article today with a buy rating.

Nice

* Reduced mining rates and face availability, which impacted ore tonnes
delivered for processing, following depletion of the Mineral Reserves in
accordance with geotechnical parameters for the safe extraction of the pillar.
Expected production from surface sources in the second half of the 2023
financial year is underpinned by the treatment of the Leslie TSF buttressing
material, following the commencement of re-mining on the Leslie TSF facility.

Group net senior debt

The Group’s net senior debt (comprising secured, interest-bearing debt, net
of available cash) increased by 108.8% to US$49.9 million (2021: US$23.9
million). Relative to the 30 June 2022 financial year-end, Group net senior
debt increased from US$9.3 million, primarily as a result of capital
expenditure in the first half of the financial year, and the cash outflow of
US$20.0 million (2021: US$21.6 million), associated with the net rand dividend
paid to shareholders in December 2022.

Mintails project progress

Following the positive DFS results for the re-mining of Mogale Gold’s TSFs,
the Group is in the process of completing optimisation and value engineering
activities in preparation for construction, which is expected to commence by
June 2023, subject to finalisation of funding and permitting. Funding for the
construction of the project is expected to be finalised in April 2023. Concept
engineering works on the Soweto cluster is also underway.

Further details on the Company’s organic growth projects will be provided
together with the Group’s interim financial results for the current
reporting period.

Sudan Exploration Project

The Group has successfully commissioned the first fire assay multi-element
analytical laboratory within the Republic of Sudan. This laboratory will be
used for the analyses of all of the Company’s exploration samples being
extracted from the Block 12 exploration concessions granted to Pan African by
the Sudan Ministry of Mines.

An exploration team is currently active within Block 12A South and Block 12A
North, conducting soil geochemistry and hard rock chip sampling programmes to
further define the identified exploration anomalies. Initial assaying received
from the exploration targets identified in the south-eastern corner of Block
12A South averaged 1.7g/t from 12 samples taken from quartz veins, rock debris
and soil. However, some of the structures sampled indicated significantly
higher gold mineralisation, with values ranging from 2.9g/t up to 9.4g/t Au.
These structures will be further defined over the next 6 weeks as part of a
confirmatory sampling programme. No Mineral Resources or Mineral Reserves are
currently reported for any of the targets.

Interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2022

Pan African will announce its interim results on 15 February 2023.

Work flow studies on the current shift cycle at Fairview Mine indicated
actual face time of less than 3 hours, affecting the completion of a full
mining cycle as a result of the extended travelling time to current production
platforms
* Excess staff from Consort will be transferred to Fairview and Sheba to
bolster the existing staff complement in order to meet the requirements of the
new shift cycle, resulting in no large staff retrenchments
* The new continuous shift cycle is expected to result in an increase of
approximately 20% in available face time, with a progressive commensurate
increase in productivity
* The amended shift cycle will reduce overtime requirements, which in turn is
expected to result in cost savings
* Increased development rates will improve mining flexibility in the future.
Negotiations with the unions to enable the conversion to a continuous
operations cycle were concluded on 27 January 2023.

Future cost-saving and production improvement initiatives to be implemented in
the near-term include:
* Commissioning of the 8MW solar PV renewable energy plant to reduce energy
costs
* Optimised infrastructure plans to decongest ore flow and increase hoisting
capacity to improve the production profile, including completion of Project
Dibanisa development that will connect the underground infrastructure of
Fairview and Sheba Mines
* Increase in exploration drilling to identify down-dip extensions to mining
platforms and prove-up new exploration targets.
Processing of the 10,000t bulk sample from the Royal Sheba project at the
Sheba and Consort metallurgical plants was completed. The bulk sample’s
actual grade was 1.22g/t relative to a planned grade of 0.5g/t, with
recoveries of 84% relative to a planned recovery of 85%. A development plan
for mining the Royal Sheba orebody will be provided together with the
Group’s interim results presentation on 15 February 2023.

Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant (Elikhulu)

Gold production from Elikhulu remained steady at 25,830oz (2021: 25,900oz)
during the current reporting period, despite disruptions to electricity supply
and inclement weather conditions during the November and December rainy
season.

Gold production from Elikhulu is expected to increase in the second half of
the 2023 financial year, as material from the Leslie/Bracken tailings facility
is retreated, following the installation of the 6km pipeline and successful
commissioning of the pump station in September 2022.

Evander Mines’ 8 Shaft Pillar project (8 Shaft Pillar) and surface sources

Production from Evander Mines’ decreased by 26.1% to 24,443oz (2021:
33,068oz).

Underground production decreased by 29.8% to 19,173oz (2021: 27,312oz),
despite an increase in processed tonnes of 6% to 73,946t (2021: 69,790t). The
decrease in the 8 Shaft Pillar’s production during the current reporting
period was a result of:
* Normalisation of mining face grades to 8g/t (2021: 13g/t),

Operation

Six months ended 31 December 2021 Six months ended 31 December 2022 Guidance for six months to June 2023
Barberton Mines – Underground

39,991

32,022

40,000 - 43,000
Barberton Tailings Retreatment Plant (BTRP)

9,126

10,012

10,000 – 12,000
Elikhulu

25,900

25,830

26,000 – 28,000
Evander Mines – Underground and surface sources

33,068

24 443*

27,000 – 29,000
Total ounces produced

108,085

92,307

103,000 – 112,000

* Includes gold equivalent PGM ounces produced by Evander Gold Mines’
Osmiridium circuit

Barberton Mines

Barberton Mines has been in operation for over 130 years with a remaining life
of mine in excess of 20 years, positioning this asset as a long-life operation
within Pan African’s portfolio.

Over the last years Barberton Mines has made good progress in increasing
mining flexibility, with key initiatives including the following:
* Increased development rates at Fairview Mine, with up to five high grade
mining platforms established on the MRC orebody and three platforms available
on the Rossiter orebody
* Increased exploration drilling targeting further down-dip extensions to
these platforms to improve reserve delineation
* Improving the production profile through decongesting existing
infrastructure, including plans for optimising hoisting from a sub-vertical
shaft, development and equipping the 4 Decline from 42 to 64 Level and
investment in refrigeration to allow mining at deeper levels
* Optimising the mining method at Sheba Mine from long-hole stoping to up-dip
mining for reduced dilution
* Focus on equipping the PC Shaft remnant blocks at Consort Mine to extract
the high-grade ore between 41 and 44 Levels
Despite the improvements detailed above, the underground operations have
experienced a number of headwinds in maintaining and increasing gold
production, with challenges including the following:
* Above inflationary increases in labour and energy costs
* Increasing depth and underground travel times at Fairview Mine, reducing
available face-time
* Depletion of the high-grade 42 Level block at Consort Mine
To mitigate these challenges, a detailed review of operations at Barberton was
completed and following intensive engagement with stakeholders, including the
representative employee unions, agreement has been reached to restructure the
underground operations. Consort Mine is to be converted to a contractor mining
operation, and both Fairview and Sheba Mines will implement a continuous
operating cycle, whilst still allowing for ongoing maintenance and other
support activities.

This conversion of Consort Mine will result in a more optimal operating model
with a focus on the mining of high-grade areas and reduced overheads.

The shift cycle at Fairview and Sheba Mines will be changed to a continuous
operations cycle during February 2023, with the following rationale:
* Work flow studies on the current shift cycle at Fairview Mi

5%, reinforcing our
imperative to expand our renewable energy portfolio in the years ahead.
Given the improved production performance expected in the second half of the
2023 financial year, we are maintaining production guidance of 195,000oz to
205,000oz for the full year, subject to consistency in Eskom’s electricity
supply.

Safety of our people and contractors remains our number one priority and we
have implemented a number of programmes to address the regression in the
safety performance at our underground operations.

We are encouraged by the progress made with the Group’s growth projects. The
Mintails acquisition was concluded during October 2022 and the senior debt
funding for the construction of the project is expected to be finalised in
April 2023. This project’s definitive feasibility study (DFS) demonstrated
compelling economics at a much lower gold price than the prevailing spot
price, and this asset is expected to significantly increase Group gold
production in the years ahead.

Pan African is committed in its resolve to continued value creation for its
stakeholders by positioning the Group as a sustainable, safe, high-margin and
long-life gold producer with an attractive pipeline of growth projects. We
look forward to presenting our interim results on 15 February 2023, which will
include further details on our operational and financial performance, progress
with the Barberton restructuring initiatives and our growth projects.”

Safety

The Group has regrettably seen a regression in the safety performance during
the current reporting period at its underground operations, following an
excellent record in the previous years. Pan African continues to focus on
industry leading safety initiatives in its pursuit of a ‘zero-harm’
working environment.
* The Group’s lost-time injury frequency rate (‘LTIFR’) regressed to
2.54 (2021: 0.98) per million man hours
* The Group’s reportable injury frequency rate (‘RIFR’) regressed to
1.34 (2021: 0.28) per million man hours
* Barberton Mines achieved an LTIFR of 1.88 (2021:1.02) and RIFR of 0.63
(2021: 0.20) per million man hours
* Elikhulu achieved excellent results with an improvement in both the LTIFR
and RIFR to 1.28 (2021:1.50) and RIFR 0.00 (2021: 1.01) per million man hours
* Evander Mines underground operations achieved an LTIFR of 4.72 (2021: 0.65)
and RIFR of 3.76 (2021: 0.00) per million man hours, with the majority of
safety incidents attributable to new short term contractors
The Group is implementing the following initiatives to improve its safety
performance in the second half of the 2023 financial year:
* Additional systems implemented to monitor contractor safety compliance
* Pre-emptive production stoppages, where safety protocols are re-enforced
* Strengthening of the on-site safety staff complement
* Third-party safety systems audit for both Barberton and Evander Mines in
order to identify further areas for improvement
Group Prod

OPERATIONAL UPDATE FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2022

Pan African is pleased to provide shareholders and noteholders with an
operational update for the six months ended 31 December 2022 (“current
reporting period”).

Key features for the current reporting period

Operational
* Gold production of 92,307oz (2021: 108,085oz), with operational results as
follows: * Barberton Mines 32,022oz (2021: 39,991oz)
* BTRP 10,012oz (2021: 9,126oz)
* Elikhulu 25,830oz (2021: 25,900oz)
* Evander Mines 24,443oz (2021: 33,068oz)

* Proactive journey to ‘zero harm’ through a number of health and safety
initiatives to address regression in underground mining safety rates
* Agreements with representative unions to restructure Barberton Mines
underground operations as follows: * Consort Mine loss-making operations are
to be converted to a contractor mining model, focussing on higher grade areas
with reduced overheads, whilst development and exploration will continue to
increase future mining flexibility and production; and
* Fairview Mine and Sheba Mines’ operations are to be reconfigured to a
continuous operations (24 hour) shift cycle with productivity expected to
increase commensurately

* The Group maintains its full year production guidance of 195,000oz to
205,000oz, a level similar to that achieved in 2022
Financial
* Issue of an inaugural sustainability-linked bond of US$47.3 million to
assist in the funding of Pan African’s pipeline of growth projects, with
Mintails being the preeminent project for development
* Payment of a net dividend of US$20.0 million (2021: US$21.6 million) in
December 2022
* An increase in net senior debt by 108.8% to US$49.9 million (2021: US$23.9
million), primarily as a result of capital expenditure incurred on Pan
African’s organic growth projects
Environmental, Social and Governance
* Average monthly cost savings of US$145,000 achieved from Evander Mines’
10MW renewable energy solar photovoltaic (PV) plant
* Site clearance completed for Barberton Mines’ 8MW solar PV plant, with
construction scheduled to commence by June 2023
* Scheduling of further large renewable energy initiatives underway
Growth projects
* Mintails’ project construction expected to commence by June 2023
* Royal Sheba’s development plan to be finalised in the next months
Pan African CEO Cobus Loots commented:

“Reduced gold production over the past half year can primarily be attributed
to the performance of the Barberton Mines underground operations. We believe
that the concrete measures being implemented at this operation will result in
a significant improvement during the second half of the financial year and in
the years ahead. The balance of our portfolio delivered in line with
expectations, despite disruptions to our electricity supply and inclement
weather conditions impacting operations. At our Evander operation alone,
electricity issues impacted production by approximately 5%, reinforcing our

Don’t think there are shorts open on this share and if there is, it’s a very small amount. The rise to 85p was on the back of breaking above the 50 and then the 200ema. A healthy retrace then happened back down to the 200ema which it has bounced off. Should see 85p again soon before going higher over time.
A golden cross has just formed which is quite bullish.
Fundamentals are good. The company has gone through a 5 year plan to change and adapt. Going from 90% revenues from emerging markets to 95% in evolved markets which are safer and more profitable. The company has returned to profit making. The only downside is the dept which is being repaid and manageable now it is profit making. The other downside would be there are more shares than 5 years ago, so it’s unlikely to go back to £3 again but it could easily see 90-100% increase from these prices.
Unlikely to see the money from Russian sale of the business. This money should be ignored now and if it is received it will be seen as a bonus.

Not a case of ii being dumb. They often have no choice to sell and besides, it’s not their money so they don’t care.

Well generally there is either a big buyer or a big seller that holds a price back. Could be both but there is certainly some big trades going through. Not too bad a day for a down day on gold.

Another offer can always come in, but seriously, why would anyone want an offer when the sp is this low?

The spread is now actually very close. 10.1 to sell and 10.115 to buy

yeah, anything above 10.10 will be a buy. I can now buy at 10.126p