focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Any thoughts on this post over on Advfn?
“Sunbed
I’m also an investor here with a substantial holding and after analysing things in more depth this morning, I now have a major bugbear with i3’s 2023 assumption on the price of gas (AECO). They use $4.50 which is plain bonkers in my opinion.
Every report I’ve read this morning forecasts the price materially lower than this and the range of $2.50-$3.00 is more realistic. Surely assumptions should be realistic and even conservative?
What will this mean for i3? Looking at page 14 of their recent Investor Presentation every 10 cents it goes below $4.50 will cost the company $2.49 million. Taking a more realistic average price of $3.00 for the year wipes off circa $35 million from projected revenue which is no small change.
Very interested to hear what response you get from company as it appears to me to potentially be a fur lined ocean going ****-up. Maybe they are praying for oil to rocket up as a counter-balance.
I’ll be thrilled if I’m wrong and no advice intended…”
Stas
I think you’re spot on with your observation.
Tony
Thanks but the crucial point is was year end revenue projection for 2023 calculated on the USD figure of $4.50?
Interesting albeit concerning post on Advfn by DiaryBeach. See below.
“I’ve asked the company for clarification of their ‘assumption price’ for average gas price for 2023 on page 14 of their presentation which I’m uncomfortable with. It states AECO Gas $4.50 which is crazy optimistic. No 3rd party expert predictions come close to this figure and a more realistic price is between $3-3.5. This affects revenue predictions by circa $30m to the downside so not small change.
Bear in mind gas is a huge part of our operations so it’s important this point is clarified. I’ll let you know what response I get…”
Yawn. I wish you two would stop bickering.
Stanley
Ryan also repeatedly said yesterday there were no shortage of ‘suitors’ trying to acquire certain assets. Let’s hope this extends to an acquisition of the whole business for +60p.
Reminder. Ex-Divi date tomorrow meaning you must buy today for January dividend.
You can still trade next to a pool in Barbados.
35p? Seriously? This is a 60p share at least.
Some people keen on making a quick few bucks profit. Not sure that’s the way to make serious money but everyone to their own.
Tony
Are you being sarcastic?
Whether it makes economic sense or not, there is undoubtedly pressure on Sunak to impose a windfall tax on energy companies and banks. This would see a material drop in share price.
Sentiment in the US has also taken a bash due to slow down and recessionary concerns. There will be carnage over there this afternoon.
Be careful with any long positions. 130 will be tested again.
Someone tweeted it!
Surely this is now becoming a take-over target.
Blakerunner
And where are all these people who sell going to live? If you think they will all sell high and then all buy low you are not being realistic. Any material drop will see a tidal wave of buyers and that will push prices back up again.
Just said “expected 1st quarter”.
I expect it will start soon.