Member Info for 34adsaddsa

I can't see how it ends well without some combination of:

Much higher oil prices, a great acquisition or a big discovery.

Asset retirement obligations, yes.

They're real liabilities. It isn't long until Stag & Montara need to be decommissioned.

Total liabilities are $1.14 Billion.

Net equity is $9.56 million.

I'm sure they've all been cash flow positive at an asset level. Once you include CAPEX and G&A it's all awful.

As you may remember, I have been a shareholder too, and am one the few here who made money being long since the crash.

They've repeatedly found gas in Morocco, but the targets are small and the Moroccan operations burn money once you take into account CAPEX and their share of G&A. It's not a viable business, particularly given the easiest targets are gone.

At the end of 2017 they had $25.8M of cash and net equity of $114.6M.

At the end of 2023 they had $4.5M of cash and net equity of $13.6M.

I've been following this company since 2018.

And they've lost tens of millions doing it.

Haha! A gamble is a gamble.

At least they're actually drilling for big targets.

If you're interested in gambling on Moroccan geology then you should probably buy Chariot.

If Chariot/Energean are successful then maybe they would be interested in SDX's pipeline.

I don't think SDX will have any money for exploration and I don't think they have any serious plans to do any. It's just a carrot on a stick to hold up the share price.

I don't want to gloat, but is going exactly the way I said it would. It's over two years since Aleph blocked the takeover and they're bleeding SDX dry via 20% interest.

You were warned.

An 850p offer wouldn't be accepted. As soon as it became clear they wanted to take it over the shares would skyrocket.

I'd also forget the NAV. The valuation of the property, plant and equipment is far too low. They're valuing on the basis of historical cost less depreciation, not what the assets are actually worth.

This stock is essentially $258,590,000 of financial assets + the palm oil plantations and mills.

Fair value is probably around £15.

Perhaps it's time to stop believing them.

I forgot inventory.

Yes, I know there's a difference.

Current assets fell by 2M, Current liabilities increased by 4M. That's why there's an improvement in total debt, but the company's financial position has actually deteriorated, not improved. Focusing on total debt without looking at cash or payables/receivables is idiotic.

You either don't understand or don't care.

Total current assets = 6.507M

Total current liabilities = 15.215M

Total non-current liabilities = 24.451M

6.507-15.215-24.451 = -33.159M

They do have 1.025M of restricted bank desposits which you could probably offset.

The equivalent calculation for FY2022 was -30,759 so the situation has got worse, not better. This is unsurprising because the company is loss making.

"Yes, understand that there is a big risk if Cashews don't work, but huge upside if it does also."

Yes. But you asked why there is no interest here. I gave you the answer: it is loss making, essentially has 33M Euros of net debt and has years of broken promises behind it. You may think it's undervalued but that doesn't change the reason for its current valuation.

Well the company essentially has 33 Million euros of net debt and is currently losing significant amounts of money with years of broken promises behind it.

You've both been warned (again).

I'll check back in a few months.

Net equity down to $13.6M.

It's heading to zero or a hugely dilutive equity issue.

Sell while you can.

I think people have their heads in the sand here. I know that in my dad's town, ALL FIVE of the vets were taken over by the same national chain. I think they must have paid silly money to buy all five in a relatively short space of time.

They've been assembling local monopolies and it wouldn't surprise me if there has been collusion between the operators to carve out different areas for the country for minimal overlap.

AEP has net current assets equal to about 3/4 of the market cap and zero debt. Strip out the net current assets (overwhelmingly cash) and the p/e is just over 1.