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Awww my thumbs up emoji didn't work :(

I hope you're right, I'll be retiring if that's the case ??. Probably depends on OPEC's strategy.

I expected them to start ramping up output once oil was above $55 but they didn't. Everyone seems to think shale is a spent force so I think the fear they felt of prices rising too high has gone. They just don't see US output surging.

I think 450-500 this year with oil at current prices is probably too ambitious.

If oil averages above $65 for months, the £ doesn't get too strong and US government bond yields don't get too high then I'm expecting £4 this year.

Oil almost $66. Pharos 20p. Management should be dragged out.

I don't think it's going to go back there unless there's a seriously vaccine resistant covid strain.

Shell yields about 3.55% and I think that says it all about the dividend yield being a limiting factor.

They probably can't at the moment. They have insider info about discussions re: covenant waivers etc.

Lovely jubbly!

Fancy offering some names my dude?

Thing is, when do additional costs come due from reopening? Salaries, energy bills, suppliers?

Probably not for a while afterwards.

I think this statement is pretty definitive: "Assuming the current national lockdown for non-essential retailers does not extend beyond 30 April 2021, existing bank facilities of £200m would be sufficient to meet the current requirements."

I don't think they need the cash. The bank forcing them raise to reduce their own risk is the worry. They can do it if they want to. Hopefully this rally continues so even if they do a small equity issue to tide them over and remove uncertainty it won't be too dilutive. Then the rally should continue.

It's not just up to them. They require the banks to waive the EBITDA covenant. That's the risk.

agreed

I'm very long CF but don't get ****y. There's non-zero chance of some kind of equity issue before shops reopen. I don't think it'll happen because CF don't need the cash but the banks could force them.

"Be humble in victory and gracious in defeat."

Covenant waiver to end of march = 50p

Business rates holiday and furlough also extended. Nice little sweeteners.

All the papers seem to agree it's either late march or early april for non-essential retail. Early april has been extensively briefed for the past month.

All we need is Boris to announce that on Monday, extend the covenant waiver until the end of march - so the lenders keep the whip hand if some huge problem emerges - and we're in clover.

It's flat since the London close.

The UK is about 1% of global oil consumption. You only know details about the UK because it's your country.

Difficult to get too bulled up when OPEC are suppressing supply by about 8 million bpd or whatever it is. It feels somewhat artificial.

I think quite a lot of the weakness isn't due to liquidity concerns or covid but simply fears about the underlying business.

Look at Mitchells and Butlers. They're up to their eyeballs in debt and have a big pension deficit. Granted they do own most of the freeholds on their sites but still. They're burning £40M a MONTH. That excludes interest costs and obligatory debt repayments of £50M a quarter. They're going to run out of cash in mid March. They've already said they're going to issue more shares. Look at the chart. People are very bullish about the re-opening. Not happening in CF's case even though they should be back to normal a good month earlier and wouldn't run out of cash until May or later.

It's either fears about the underlying business or simply a technical thing of certain large shareholders being very keen to get out. This thing fell almost 50% in a month between Dec '19 and Jan '20 and the news wasn't even that bad.