RE: Revenue Recognition Policy2 Feb 2018 18:14
you has a 31million pound house (�1,000 is 0.1% of �1 million)
you are confident to sell your own property.so yes using an up front fee (you can afford to pay even if it doesn't sell makes sense)
BUT you are not an average Uk resident,
or an average PURP customer - their average house sold is worth c.30% below the UK average
(i.e. they do better outside of London)
so in your example you are sophisicated, well off and a good result
the problem is a lot of people pay �1,000 and their house doesn't sell.
Jeffries calculated that figure to be 50% PURP says it is 20%
The PURP rebuttal of the Jeffries analysis is not specific and thus not convincing.
The second issue is about accounting.
For the proportion that dont sell (whether it be 22% or 50%)
PURP 'promises' to continue to do work to sell the property.
This contradicts what their accounting policy states.
That potentially means that their financial statements are incorrect.
It would not affect CASH though.
Still PURP is rated based on high growth and a disrupter of excellence
thus these issues - if there is any merit in them i feel are very relevant.
PURP forecasts are that they will grow sales i the UK to 4 times the current level
per their accounting policy their product is just a listing service....
(per Jeffries) you have a 50% chance that the �1,000 paid will lead in a sale
(per PURP) is it 78% chance ....
it is reasonably logical to assume the true figure is in the middle so 65%,
i.e. one third of people pay �1,000 and yet their house does not sell.
Taking PURP own ambitions of huge growth,
that is an exponentially increasing number of people that have paid �1,000
and not sold their house...
so that to me means that the pricing model will change over time,
to have some element of up front fee, and some element of successs fee
so for those that choose the success fee payment route - they will pay not �1,000 but maybe �1,500 or �2,000.
this is onyl paid if the house is sold of course but it does reduce the gap between PURP and the high street,
and of course the high street has already started moving this direction.
end result....
PURP is just an estate agent - competing like all the others.....
it has done well, but the share price valuing the business at 15 times sales is too high IMHO
All IMHO, DYOR, BoL
PURP is in my top5 (short)