We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Right now he's damned if does, damned if he doesn't.
Who in their right mind would want to step into his shoes today? And what would they do any different?
This genuinely is a no win situation from a political perspective.
Easiest xmas bonus they will ever make.
Investing in a world class diagnostic company selling globally at the beginning of a global pandemic.
They must be laughing their heads off all the way to the bank soon
____________________________________________________________
Reminds me of the scene from The Big Short,
"I'm stood in front of a burning house and I'm offering you fire insurance"
Not going to start discussing again but govt can't dictate the speed of arbitration ( if formal arb) nor could they refuse a court date if that's the route Novacyt decided to go . Hence I said what I did. Furthermore they were in active negotiations and did NOT rollover.
________________________________________________________________________________
They can postpone both arbitration and potential litigation on grounds of public/national interest until a fixed date pending a Judicial review. Fundamenatlly as any litigation would be potentially subject to the findings of said review.
By default, negotiations will also be completely suspended. This has nothing to do with rolling over or playing hardball. NCYT are being dictated to by a higher legal process that has been instigate by neither itself or the Gov. The Good Law Project are actually likely determining the timescale and outcome of the dispute.
I am positive about this company but I'm also realistic about the current situaition it's facing and the potential timescales involved in playing it out to the full.
Agree to a point.
Meanwhile the directors can't buy in because they could subsequently be accused of insider trading if they did.
They know everything about DHSC contractual issues.
How much must that be hurting?
_____________________________________________________
It really is the only explanation that makes any sense. If you look at all the current disputes across all the companies involved it's the same situation - Zero - no updates, no progress - nothing, absolutely nil.
It's existence blocks any director deals as potential insider trading, it precludes any updates of substance that would involved the slightest hint of anything to do with the dispute.
The company probably doesn't wnat to issue RNS's ans every one it issues will be shouted down by "what about the DHSC dispute".
The next material update I expect to be year end trading at the end of Jan and I expect it to be healthy, however we wil likely be no further with the DHSC issue.
Kaeren Said:- Once bitten twice shy , the fact it is still being negotiated means NCYT aren't rolling over and too bloody right.
_________________________________________________________________________________________
That's a big assumption.
I don't feel any negotiation is going on at all. I've said it before and I continue to believe the Gov have pegged all disputed covid stock payments against the GLP Judicial Review and as such have stopped any negotiation or dispute resolution until the JR is complete. They will also likely have blocked any legal action until after the JR has taken place all wrapped up nicely in a non disclosure order.
All this will be done "In public/national interest" to be seen to be ebing above board.
I personally expect no update on the DHSC situation until Q3 2022.
So the main "headline" points I took from this presentation were the following.
Omicrom replicates in the upper respiratory tract as opposed to the lungs.
It is 10 times less virulent than Delta once in the Lungs - so much less agressive.
It is 70 times more transferable then Delta so massively more likely to replicate - hence the spike we're seeing in cases.
So whilst it's clearly less aggressive once in the lungs, the sheer volume of replication is likely to create more problems.
Posted without agenda. I found this informative and interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84XMFVcLScw
Whilst fundamentally correct that the DHSC position is a known to the company accounts, the fact it hangs over the company like a bad smell supressess the share price and will ocntinue to do so all the time it's present.
I was hoping it would have been cleared up this month of the Good Law Product Judicial Review. I'm still convinced it's being pegged to that case as some sort of public interest political excuse. Now that's been delayed till May 22, it could easily hang around for another 6 months. This will stop II's being interested.
If we assume communication from the company is going to continue as it has historically, the next RNS of substance will be end of year accounts early next year. Anything good before that just see it as a bonus.
From a company perspective the only thing a depressed share price does is make it difficult to borrow money, as NCYT doesn't need to borrow money the SP is effectively irrelevant. See the often quoted video from Jeff Bezos re Amazon when it was in this position. The SP is not the company and the company is not the SP.
We know roughly what the revenue will be this year, that can only go up given the current circumstances and recent positive RNS about the PCR approval.
Sit back, relax and wait for things to unfold. Constantly looking at the SP on a minute by minute basis will just make you ill and paranoid, as does reading some of the fruitcake ideas on the BB.
This isn't a punt company, it's not a jam tomorrow company with surprise placings. It has £100M in sales annualy and increasing. It's also not a get rich quick scheme, this is a fantastic medium to long term investment. Treat it as such and your mental health will be in a much better place.
The RNS this morning got me thinking. Especially the note explaining this particular product was approx 30% of the £3m revenue discussed in the previous RNS.
Are any of the other 10 products awaiting CTDA approval potentially ones that would be replacements for products supplied under the original DHSC contracts?
Could we be waiting for a specific product to be approved to be able to then unlock the dispute via replacement of said approved product?
The only mention I see of Q1 2022 is the poo hitting the fan if they've not been paid and the directors having to raise capital to fill the hole:-
Have I missed somethign suggesting they are expecting to recieve settlement in Q1 22?
DHSC non-payment has, as previously disclosed, put pressure on the Group's cash position. The Group could take action aimed at preserving cash, albeit the Board is reluctant to take such measures, as these would have an adverse impact on the Group's longer term prospects. Given the Board's growth plans for the Group and the likely timing of recovery of any monies due from DHSC, the Board anticipates that a working capital shortfall could arise during Q1 2022 if sufficient amounts from the DHSC are not collected. Certain Directors have indicated that they would be prepared to advance further funding to the Group and the Board is investigating options to raise further capital for the Group. The Board will provide further updates as appropriate.
Text from the Abingdon prelim results as follows:-
DHSC Dispute and Judicial Review Process
The Good Law Project ("GLP") is currently engaged in judicial review proceedings brought against the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, which is due to be heard in May 2022. The DHSC is resisting the claims by the GLP. It is noted that the Group is an interested party, not a defendant in this case. The Group set out on its website on 9 August 2021 its detailed Grounds of Resistance as well as publishing the letter issued to the GLP via their solicitors, which corrected factual inaccuracies the GLP had continued to publish as part of its case. The Group continues to engage in this process to ensure that its reputation and good standing are not impugned and to ensure accurate information is made available to the judicial review.
As at the signing of these accounts the Group is owed £8.9m by DHSC for a combination of tests delivered (£5.2m), components bought on behalf of DHSC (£3.3m), plus a further commitment of (£0.4m) for goods not yet delivered to which DHSC retain legal title (this is further broken down in note 5). The Group believes that there are no legal grounds as to why these monies are not being paid in full and as such is following the Dispute Resolution Process as outlined in the contracts with DHSC. There have been two separate meetings with DHSC in an effort to find a resolution through mediation to this issue. During the second mediation both parties reached a non-binding agreement in principle which would, if concluded, lead to the outstanding monies being substantially collected and resolve all outstanding disputes with DHSC. The delay in these monies being paid has had a material impact on the Group, as previously announced to the market and has led the Board to conclude that there is a material uncertainty in relation to the going concern of the Group in the near term, linked to the non-recovery of these funds in line with the contractual obligations. We look forward to the conclusion of the dispute resolution process in due course so we can focus our efforts on building our business, creating jobs in the Northern Powerhouse region and supporting our customers' innovation and growth plans.
I have a feeling (and this is based on nothing other than that), that the DHSC are waiting for the outcome of the Judicial Review (JR) requested by the Good Law Project.
Despite the fact NCYT are not directly involved with the JR itself it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that the DHSC, via mediation, are suggesting that the outcome of the JR is either public interest or national interest and that it would be inappropriate to settle any current disputes before the outcome is known. It’s just the sort of political stalling tactic that would be used in this situation, it would also very likely be made clear that any attempt at litigation before this event would immediately be quashed pending the outcome of the JR. All this on top of an NDA. Hence the radio silence from all parties involved or not involved.
My understanding is the JR is mid December, so not long to go now. I’m not expecting to hear anything before that at least.
Again, I have nothing factual to base this on, it just seems a logical situation in my mind given the circumstances.
In the back of my mind there is a worry that this entire episode is going to turn into some multi year $h1t show.
I've said before that I feel NCYT is being caught up in the Judicial Review situation (dispite not being directly part of it) and it also stands a reasonable chance of being dragged into this Randox crap now also.
Think of it as collateral damage, NCYT being involved simply by association - in so much as it was supplying the DHSC/Gov in a time of need and now we need to review how it was handled with all companies.
I just hope this doesn't drag on and on with all sorts of reviews and public enquiries that postpone settlement of the outstanding case with the DHSC.
What NCYT needs more than anything is the spectre of the DHSC dispute removed, it now almost doesn't matter what the outcome is, it just needs to be gone so the company can move forward and trade with certainty.
It has been brought up in Parliament (and also mentions in press), each time it is the "Judicial Review" situation is used to defend it's position. In so much as there is a JR in December the results of which will determine the Gov's actions and they will abide etc etc.
The fact that this doesn't directly effect NCYT (or some of the other companies in dispute) doesn't seem to matter, I get the feeling (and it is only a feeling) that we are more linked to that JR than we have any reason to be.
The almost complete lack of commentary on the entire situation (media wide) smacks of suspression as though there's some form of D notice been issued on the subject until the JR is complete.
What this space, my theory (and it is only a theroy and opinion) is that we hear nothing until the JR is done and dusted.