Member Info for 1ups1de

What we all have to remember is that gdp don’t capture all the positive movement in gold price. Provided of materials gets a decent share of revenue. Remember to build that into projections.

Gold price correction is led by GCC sovereign entities facing an acute liquidity problem — no oil revenue, urgent import bills, military expenditure — liquidating the most liquid reserve asset available. That’s forced selling of exposure, not a reassessment of gold’s monetary function.

The distinction matters for GDP specifically. A paper-driven selloff — leveraged positions cut, ETF redemptions — is short and sharp, then reverses as physical buyers step in. A sustained structural selloff — sovereigns liquidating reserves over months — is a different duration risk entirely.Sovereigns states like their gold so more likely to move on quickly to tap bond markets for their needs.

TSF at $5,000/oz — the numbers become extraordinary

The TSF carries a JORC resource of 81,959oz. At $5,025/oz spot:

∙ Gross in-situ value: ~$412m (£330m)

∙ Recoverable (assume 50% toll-processed): ~£165m gross

∙ Net to Goldplat after DRDGOLD processing fees (assume 20–25% toll): £120–130m net

Against a £23m market cap. Even heavily risk-adjusted for regulatory delays, commercial uncertainty, and processing costs, a 10% probability-weighted value on the TSF alone is £12–13m — more than half the current market cap.

Against a market cap of ~£23m The market is essentially valuing the entire operating business — South Africa processing engine, Ghana operation, Brazil growth platform, TSF optionality, and all future earnings — at roughly £6-7 above net working capital. That’s an absurd discount.

Add net cash of £4,806,000 and you’re buying the ongoing business for next to nothing.

A business generating £4.8m operating profit in a single half year at last year’s gold prices, now operating into a $5,000/oz gold environment, sitting on £16.5m net working capital, with an unmonetised TSF worth hundreds of millions at current spot, is valued at £23m. The market is either pricing in near-certain catastrophic failure (Ghana licence, TSF collapse, operational meltdown) or simply not paying attention to a tiny illiquid AIM stock.

The catalysts that unlock this remain unchanged: Ghana licence renewal and DRDGOLD commercial terms on the TSF. But at $5,000/oz, the urgency and economic logic of resolving both has never been stronger.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Gold chilling around $5000/oz. Suits Goldplat just fine.

We know that current rising Gold price will translate into stronger profits.

We anticipate the TSF eventually becoming a valuable asset.

Nearer term we have the tangible Ups1de from balance sheet inventory. We have to assume

Goldplat’s precious‑metals inventory was effectively held at around 3,200–3,300 USD/oz (cost, comfortably below then‑spot), based on FY‑25 disclosures and late‑June spot levels.

• Comparing that to 5,080 USD/oz “today” implies a mark‑to‑market uplift of roughly 1,800–1,880 USD/oz, i.e. about +55–60% relative to carrying.

• If you focus only on the “precious metals on hand and in process” line (about £11.4m mid‑2025) rather than the full £14.9m including consumables, that percentage is the cleanest way to think about hidden value. So it’s worth £17.7M… ~ 84% of market cap. When will Mr market sensibly rerate GDP ?

Very confident tone full of interesting stats.

The base business is clearly still undervalued of any relative valuation basis if pgm prices hold up which looks likely. Under 4* ebitda should be at least 6* ebitda.

Then there’s the impending Thaba Ups1de. Has anyone modelled what that could be worth per share ?

What It Signals About Management

This is POSITIVE, not negative:

✅ Capital Allocation Discipline: They’re not throwing good money after bad

✅ Focus on Returns: Prioritizing high-ROIC projects (SDO, Volspruit) over speculative deep-mining

✅ Transparency: Taking the impairment now rather than stringing it along

✅ Asset Optimization: Willing to dispose of non-core assets

Contrast with typical mining companies:

∙ Most would keep drilling Hacra, spending millions, hyping “potential”

∙ Sylvania said: “This doesn’t fit our strategy, take the loss, move on”

Hacra: The Full Story

What It Was:

Hacra is an early-stage PGM-Ni-Cu exploration project located at the extreme northern end of the Northern Limb of the Bushveld Igneous Complex in South Africa. It’s one of Sylvania’s three exploration assets alongside Volspruit and Aurora.

Key Facts:

Location & Geology:

∙ Part of the “Far Northern Limb Projects”

∙ Contiguous to (borders) the Waterberg PGM project

∙ Deep underground target vs. shallow Volspruit

∙ Estimated exploration target: 20-22.5 million tonnes at 2.18-3.32 g/t 4E grade

∙ Also contains copper (0.12-0.16%) and nickel (0.08-0.10%)

Development Status:

∙ Had “encouraging” 2021 drilling results with grades of 2.3-7.4 g/t 2E+gold

∙ August 2024: Declared exploration target (conceptual, not JORC resource)

∙ Required: Magnetic surveys, additional drilling to upgrade to resource estimate

∙ Problem: Deep underground mining required (expensive, risky)

Why They Impaired It:

From the search results, Sylvania explicitly stated they’re:

1. “Focussing exploration activities on the shallower mineralisation of Volspruit and Aurora”

2. “Exploring potential disposal options for the Hacra asset”

3. “No further additional capital is committed to this project”

Why This Makes Sense:

1. Capital Discipline: Management choosing to focus capital on higher-return, lower-risk projects

2. Shallower = Better Economics: Open-pit/shallow mining has far better economics than deep underground

3. Core Business Focus: SDO (tailings reprocessing) is printing cash - why divert focus?

4. Volspruit Priority: Updated NPV of $69m with better-defined resource deserves the capital

Buying:

∙ £87m EBITDA for ~£420m (4.8 multiple)

∙ £30m FCF growing to £50m+ in FY2027( Capex behind them)

∙ Zero debt, proven management, expanding margins through strong PGM prices

∙ Buyback program starting Q3 = floor under share price

. 2p dividend declared

Let’s see price action when analysts /followers build in current spot prices which are up on first half.

Thx. Good catch. I assumed posters know SLP post in USD given commodities.

Let’s hope the focus is on the strong basket pricing currently. That near guarantees a blow out year. Excellent production delivery & transformation pricing makes a mockery of current low share price. The pivotal question is where pgm prices are headed ? Industrial use + sentiment suggest strength.Stockopedia has the stock @1.99 forecast. Still plenty of Ups1de?

We know the interims on feb24 will be decent & a good dividend declared.

I’m more interested in forward momentum . Look at likely Q3 basket price based on last Friday spot prices :

Quarter

Q1 FY2025

Q2 FY2025

Q3 FY2025

Q4 FY2025

Q1 FY2026

Q2 FY2026

Q3 FY2026 est.

Basket

$1,361/oz

$1,387loz

$1,428/oz

$1,628/oz

$1,953/oz

$2,374/oz

~$2,769/oz

That’s 94% better than equivalent Quarter last year !

The platinum surge has been transformational. At $935/oz cash costs in Q2 FY2026, a basket of ~$2,769/oz implies cash margins approaching $1,800/oz gross

- vs just ~$588/oz in Q3 FY2025. The operational leverage here is enormous with strong pgm prices.

Mr market slowly waking up to the GDP opportunity .

We’ve all highlighted the TSF opportunity worth many times market cap even after massive haircut .

Then core business is getting more profitable & will command a higher muktiple.

But don’t forget the current balance sheet at end June 2025:

£6m cash PLUS the £11.4 m in hand precious metals was valued @$3264/oz. Would now be £18.2m

6+18=24. That 33% higher than current mkt cap

Go figure where price is headed.

Looks like the market is waking up to the substantial value Ups1de here. Interesting ( & frustrating) that SLP don’t summarise results vs previous year.

In q2 + 48% revenue; +49%ebitda

That means in first half will have probably matched the whole of last fiscal.

With the current turbo boosted basket pricing next stop £1.50 after q3 gains banked.

At £1.25, this is no longer just a commodity speculation - it’s a deep value opportunity with substantial margin of safety. Production forecast raised to 90k+. Given current basket price ~$3600 points to fY basket of ~$2900. Do the maths. Significant Ups1de.

The reverse DCF reveals the market is pricing in a catastrophic scenario:

∙ Permanent FCF of

Goldplat represents a compelling asymmetric opportunity: downside protected by net cash, inventory value, and trading below book value; upside driven by gold price leverage, DRDGOLD TSF deal, and earnings normalisation after Ghana transition.

At current gold prices of $4,639/oz (up 72% YoY), the stock looks materially undervalued. The market is pricing in FY2025's transitional earnings rather than the forward potential with gold at record highs.

Current Valuation Metrics

Metric

Goldplat Assessment

P/E (TTM)

5.7x

Trough earnings year

EV/EBITDA

1.9x

Exceptional value

P/Book

0.68x

Below book value

EV/Revenue

0.22x

Very depressed

Market Cap

£15.6m

Enterprise Value

~£10m

Cash-adjusted

Normalised Earnings Power Analysis

Adjusting for transitional FY2025 and current gold prices:

Scenario

Projected Profit

Base Case: Gold at $4,000/oz| £3.5-4.5m PAT (normalized)

Bull Case: Gold at $4,600/oz

£5.0-6.5m PAT potential

Bear Case: Gold at $3,000/oz|£1.5-2.5m PAT

Margin of Safety Assessment

Asset-Based Floor: Net assets of ~f23m vs market cap of £15.6m (P/B 0.68x). Includes £6.1m cash, £14.9m inventory (precious metals), and £6.4m PP&E.

Hidden Asset: TSF with 81,959 oz JORC resource @ $4,600/oz = $377m gross metal value. Even at 50% recovery and heavy discounting, material optionality.

Margin of Safety: STRONG (30-40%).

Trading below book, net cash balance, hidden TSF optionality, and trough earnings provide multiple layers of downside protection.

We know that we can look forward to excellent interim profit growth at the end of the month. Rhodium has nearly doubled in price year on year. Since then it’s moved up again. This will further strengthen a very strong cash balance & provide patient shareholders with a boosted divi.> £1.20 a share doesn’t look a stretch