Member Info for 1ups1de

At today's price Market is pricing in significant mean reversion in profitability - either sharp decline in day rates, utilisation collapse, or major capex requirement.

Management guidance suggests continued improvement.GMS is a high-quality asset operator in the offshore energy services sector, demonstrating strong execution through cycle recovery with improving utilisation, day rates, and deleveraging. The stock trades at an exceptionally low valuation (EV/ EBITDA 4.4x, P/FCF 3.4x, FCF yield ~29%) reflecting market concerns about oil/gas cyclicality, Middle East exposure, and recent governance noise.It will fly through mid 20s price point & go through 30p on evidence of continued execution.

England , Scotland & Wales possibly qualifying hits 5/6 of their most profitable weeks. At very least folks will stall booking until they see game locations then footy mad types will prioritise North America holiday in 2026. Not great for Jet2.

Indeed our next Qtr results will be very strong. Having been a SLP investor for a few years I’ve come to appreciate that future prospects are inextricably linked to unique South Africa challenges ( energy) & strong metal prices. Fine for now and 2025/26 cashflow will be very strong but difficult to forecast very far into the future. The board have done an outstanding job buffeting us from the ups & downs.

Thx for sharing. 1st Qtr 2025/6 should be very pleasing.

Mr market waking up to the likelihood that margins will strengthen & demand will grow with European countries upping defence spend. This could easily top £7 not based on this years resulted obviously but future momentum.

Edison out with a note calling down pbt -2% for 25 & -9% for 2026. I fear we will see sub £16 before £20 again. That would be a decent entry for a category leader.

Neither method is universally superior. The optimal approach depends on:

• Specific industry characteristics

• Available financial information

• Investment objectives

• Market conditions

• Company-specific factors

Successful valuation requires a balanced, multifaceted approach that leverages the strengths of both comparative & discounted cash flow.

I also laid out my key inputs which of course can be disagreed with.

Boosting dividend nicely to defect from significant slowdown in lfl sales ( at that rate is volume down) & shop rollout. Also signalling tougher times ahead.

Let’s see what Wednesday results bring ? Probably facing 50-60 m hit from minimum wage/ni hike ? And a business rate hike. With limited economic growth signalled again today by Severfield ‘s gloomy outlook Greggs lfl s have /will probably slow. Another leg down for share price then time to buy ?

Why such a high receivables balance. I hope we don’t add write offs to the obvious woes. Eventually infrastructural spending might take off but they are signalling a miserable 12 month outlook. Don’t catch a falling knife might prove wise counsel in the short term.

At todays RTW price & $/£ exchange rate Arix valued at £1.60+. If appetite for early biotech improves the deal might prove lucrative.

Still a steal @under£1. Improving 24 macros ( interest rates / inflation); sensible debt reduction programme rather than dividend;significant housing supply constraints; substantial land bank undervalued.

I looked into this one given the large share price drop & return of the founder. Clearly misfired on the German acquisition. Dividend also under pressure given drop in cash reserves.Frankly on a dcf basis, assuming modest core revenue growth & only a slight improvement in operating margin, then it’s not hard to mark the share around £1.40. What’s likely to provide a real tailwind ?

How are they going to fund the final stage of development now that the cash has nearly run out? Year after year ,despite promising noises , the cumulative £losses have grown. Now just as interest grows for nuclear radiation & breast cancer detectors they don’t have enough cash reserves. Potential future Orders are one thing but cash needed NOW to keep business solvent. Where will it come from - high cost debt or further shareholder dilution?

Given macro headwinds no surprise to see the profit warning today. No quantum given. However with further interest rate rises on the horizon, housing mkt in the doldrums how can management be confident that profit growth will return in 2024 as stated?

The board clearly have believed the share price hadn’t reflected progress & results - witness our buyback programme.
This week we need clearer & more confident communication.
Cite the positive tailwinds of gold price momentum & operational progress.
Quantify better our stockpile reserves
Detail the positives on our balance sheet : reduction in share count + mayflower cash proceeds
Provide a positive forecast on operating cashflows.
Together, these blow 10p a share out of the water.

Did Blv set off on a mortgage buyer spree at the wrong time. Near guaranteed that BOE will have to again raise interest rates & further choke off mortgage approvals/affordability. BLV CE does a great job communicating at potential shareholder events. But this is a major headwind for the 22% of the business that was largely incremental .Letting as others say should be more resilient but even here with diminishing stock more folks will stay put & so less churn than BLV would like. It will need to go below £1.50 to tempt.

An anticipated strong half year results should help share price. I never understand why in quarterly updates SLP don’t highlight the year on year changes. Q1 was good with production increases & improving basket prices benefiting Q2 vs last year. Happy days.

Think you will find gas price capped at poor level. So nothing like these profits. Oil good & more to come from North Sea payout.

At last the board is on the track. They just need to get their financial advisors to turbo charge telling the story. Simply wall st values GDP @ 40p; Guru focus @27p. My own ( conservative ) dcf@36p. Our problem is our market cap is so small. The rand is appreciating vs £sterling & gold price near high so further potential tailwinds to the price. Hopefully we cross 10p soon. Delighted we are retiring shares at such deep value.