Member Info for 1pencil

Adding a few bits to keep everything fresh;

'Whilst at this stage no certainty can be provided on the exact timescale of the Demerger, the current intention is that publication of the Demerger Circular would be in or by early November with the distribution of IngenuityCo shares being completed at or before the end of 2024'

Odd as it may sound but THG has the almost exact same market cap as it did when at 49p.

Post

1,525,764,626

s/p - 43.00

market cap - 656,078,789

Pre

1,331,037,841

s/p - 49.00

market cap - 652,208,542

Most likley the trackers etf,s have this in mind and have reduced accordingly.

Very much expecting the circular next week in order to have some chance of completing before year end, after all the board have committed themselves raising over £95m on this basis.

Plenty of dry powder..

Frasers Group PLC - Shirebrook, England-based owner of the Sports Direct, Frasers and Flannels retail chains - Founder and 73% shareholder Mike Ashley pledges 26.6 million Frasers shares, a 5.9% stake and worth about GBP200 million, to HSBC Private Bank as security for a derivatives trading facility.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/director-dealings-ashley-pledges-frasers-shares-hiscox-chiefs-buy-u7edzyofroyegq4.html

Fed cuts rates by a quarter point.

Disappointing sp reaction but could be down to aggressive prop traders filling orders, I know sounds contrary but lets see if anyone has been buying.

Rough guide on possible upcoming event dates:

11th Nov - Transfer approved into new shares category

15th Nov - Last day for circular release

22nd Nov - Last day to nominate holdings in Ingenuity/THG

20th Dec - demerge of Ingenuity

March 2025 - FTSE250 inclusion

Indication of possible time frames are mentioned earlier by Matt on LinkedIn, below excerpt post:

'After months of background work, THG’s Board recently agreed to privatise Ingenuity, while also ensuring it was fully funded for life as a private company. This meant raising c£95m via a placing, which mainly goes to Ingenuity when it breaks away from THG in December.'

Realistically going to need 28 days from date of market notice (circular), Dec obviously holiday season so I would say end stop date is around 15th Nov, there's also another mention about 'early Nov' but don't have that to hand.

Broadly in-line with Sept outlook guidance, no real surprises but bouncing along the bottom.

Debt covenants okay, overall down on last year by a tad.

Fx headwind may ease post election, time will tell - Ai a bright spot which they seem to be taking a lead on

Further to the announcement on 8 October 2024, Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc is pleased to announce the approval by the Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA") of the transfer of listing category of its ordinary shares from the equity shares (transition) category to the equity shares (commercial companies) category on the official list of the FCA, in accordance with Rule 21.5 of the UK Listing Rules as modified by Transitional Provision 2 (the "Transfer").

The Transfer will take effect at 8:00 a.m. GMT today.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ONT/approval-of-the-transfer-of-listing-category/16750254

Trump wins Penn, one more to go..

Wall St futures pushing Dow over 43,000

Trump needs Penn + a small one Mich or Wis should see him over the line..

UK limited companies have public registers, companies can also issue Section 793 notices for disclosure of nominee holdings.

The ownership of Ingenuity has to remain with THG Group shareholders, I cannot envisage a scenario where those invested in THG would sell out to anyone else, its a complete non-starter imo.

I expect the Ingenuity share register (post circular) to broadly resemble that of THG currently, if the board are able to allocate shares accordingly making sure everyone gets a fair share of the new pie, including retail.

I see competition from existing Ingenuity customers as a potential to unlock value, after all they already have a long entrenched commitment to Ingenuity which is difficult to switch away from.

If you take someone like Pentland Group which has pretty much all of their business on Ingenuity how are they going to feel about it going private, will they seek to protect their interests by investing capital and having a say ?

Pentland Group is a good example as it owns almost half of JD Sports, a direct competitor to Sports Direct.

Ingenuity becomes more valuable the closer it gets to break-even, it also means THG are picking up the tab in the meantime.

Fulfilment is a huge cost to any business which is set to increase with higher labour costs, how much could sports Direct save with their own automated warehousing?

No idea, but I bet /Frasers know - the sum needed to get Ingenuity across the line is now £75m, then its into profit with many blue chip customers on long five year agreements, Disney, Coca cola, Heinz, Nestle, Gillette,the list goes on..

#babyoutwiththebathwater

Https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/share-investing/article-14030815/Mike-Ashleys-big-brands-enrich-portfolio.html

It might be worth having a look at the booming logistics market, especially considering the upcoming demerger of Ingenuity.

At the moment investors will do or say anything to get the share price to go up, I get that but maybe worth pausing for a moment to consider what exactly is being sold..

'the firm estimates that the warehouse automation market will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 15%. And with online retail calling for massive volumes of picking, packing and shipping services, automated warehouses are rapidly becoming more of a necessity. '.

https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/40417-market-for-warehouse-automation-expected-to-grow-to-55b-by-2030#:~:text=The%20market%20for%20warehouse%20automation,new%2C%20complex%20challenges%20for%20businesses.

Linney has become one of the country’s first third-party logistics providers to adopt the latest robotic technology for its site. The installation is part of our investment in automation and technology to drive even greater efficiency in our fulfilment and warehousing operations, used by leading ecommerce and retail brands.

https://www.linney.com/thoughts/news/linney-leads-the-way-in-ecommerce-fulfilment

There's been quite a lot of push back (see City AM article amongst others) against the increase in employer NI contributions, one would expect the benefits of automation (Autostore) to really shine here.

Automation has to be a winner over increased labour costs, ROI will be much sooner at least for Ingenuity holders.

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Donald Trump 62.7% Kamala Harris 37.4%

https://tinyurl.com/4r6f8brc

Its going to be harder and harder to keep shorting with increased positive news flow, HCM will simply just get bought up by long only funds.

Trump taking the lead in polls, I think it was the Mail interview where SMS favoured Trump benefiting markets.