RE: 2026 outlook ..6 Jan 2026 12:59
There's a fair bit of commentary from around Ai expectations, suffice to say most of it is about re-setting investors expectations or even pushing these out to 2027 and beyond.
I do wonder if Martins latest comments are in some way reflecting this also as it was in stark contrast to earlier interviews championing the virtues of Agentic Ai.
China has now over taken the US in m most benchmarks for Ai models, the major difference other than performance between China and the US is price, on the one hand you have OpenAi touting an IPO valuation of $750m whereas the China LLM's can be downloaded for free being open source, ironically this is what OpenAi started out as..
With this in mind the next hurdle is commoditization, in essence there is little to differentiate the platforms making premium pricing difficult, again this of course has a bearing on valuations.
We don't as yet have much visibility on valuations at the moment but we do have some funds which offer some insight quarterly, Fidelity for example has written down their investment holding in X by a whopping 70% plus, not sure if X also owns Grok Ai as not too clear whats happened there.
The other issue is user adoption, according to Google 'Searches for "how to turn off copilot" were part of a trend of "how to" questions that reached an all-time high in 2025. This reflected public interest and some user frustration with the integration of AI into everyday applications.'
Last but not least that old nugget about climate change, many countries are objecting to higher electric prices due to data centre usage, Ireland for example has indicated 80% must come from renewable sources.
..food for thought..