Member Info for 1pencil

Boom, seat of the pants bud, hope you stay in the game !

Yes, 2phevs good point, I think it sets the tone for the whole Barclay's errrr.....''research'''

Potential for some board buys now this is out of the way, Chairman non-exec which likely cover his purchase.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202207/26/WS62df7e12a310fd2b29e6e737.html

Not good but perhaps factored in somewhat ..

Its not practical to be around these levels as it prevents IPO or strategic partnership of Beauty, recent Citi note summed this up well.

"It said Beauty "is a very strong player in a very attractive market and, alone, could make up for the total valuation of the company".

At 0900 BST, the shares were up 3.7% at 77.24 p.

From April results:

"During the year we also announced a number of strategic options for 2022 and beyond, including our plans to step up to the Premium segment of the London Stock Exchange's Main Market and separate THG Beauty by way of a listing or strategic partnership. I will work closely with Charles and the Board to continually review these strategic options and we look forward to updating you on progress during 2022 as our plans take shape."

I meant to include a comment on guidelines for revised forecast/outlook, what are the circumstances for issuing such an impromptu update.

In general terms its 10% deviation from published guidance, for THG I would anticipate margin improvement rather than top line revenue but this is doable given raw material trajectory. There are other factors such as volatility, the board may wish to see a firm trend or even forward purchase to ensure fixed prices for the balance of H2.

Hosai, just re-read your post again, apologies if I have covered some of the points already highlighted in your post.

If you take the average monthly pre-Covid prices over the preceding five years, it works out around 720 euros per metric ton, that's throughout the whole year.

For the month of July 22 it stands at 930 euros per metric ton after reaching an April high of 1,448 euros per metric ton.

THG released their f/y results and first Q trading up date on 21st April right at the peak, it would have been impossible at this juncture to predict such a swift downturn imo.

Part of their commentary below:

"The full year effect of anticipated improvements primarily expected in the second half across whey commodity prices, business model efficiencies driving improved operating leverage and increased Ingenuity Commerce revenues, all support continued margin recovery in 2023 and a return to 9.0% to 10.0% adjusted EBITDA in the medium-term."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/thg-plc--thg-/rns/fy21-preliminary-results-and-q12022-trading-update/202204210700068357I/

Worth a read, Standard listing v Premium and AIM, this imo has had more of an impact then anything else.

"“From an institutional investor perspective, the Standard Listing remains largely untested to date, with relatively little activity and the highest profile listings being cash shell acquisition vehicles. Accordingly, investors have not yet formed a view as to whether the protections afforded under a Standard listing are sufficient to promote this as a viable alternative to the more established listing options. Nor is it likely that the creation of the Standard listing has led to a broadening of the pool of capital available to businesses compared to AIM."

https://www.criticaleye.com/inspiring/insights-servfile.cfm?id=2382

This was mentioned by another poster earlier in the week, (sorry forgot who) it was but have been pondering same question also.

The suggestion was given such a large percentage drop its unlikely to have been incorporated into previous forecasts which may result in revised upward guidance/TU.

I think this is valid and certainly possible although it may be wise to wait until a firm trend is established, last thing the board would want is to revise up then have to revise down later on, other than that it is encouraging.

Fuel prices at the pump appear to be softening too, noticed 10% drop this week.

Data from market tracker Wind Info showed that the STAR Market has attracted a total of 162 new-age information technology companies, 93 biopharmaceutical companies, 76 high-end equipment manufacturers and another 56 new materials firms. Together they make up nearly 90 percent of all companies listed on the tech-focused board.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202207/22/WS62d9f81ca310fd2b29e6dc36.html

MS, Except it wasn't Matt or John that set the IPO price, it was the banks and bookrunners, that's the truth of it.

It's the media which has personalised this making it all about Matt and whilst he has the last word it's the advisors who steer direction listing wise.

Sept 2020 - crazy times

BlackRock, Henderson Global Investors, funds managed by Merian and the Qatar Investment Authority agreed to buy £565 million of the shares offered.

“There wasn’t too much concern about this during the bookbuild - investors understand that the founder is a key part of the story,” said a second source familiar with the transaction.

He said companies would take heart from THG’s success and launch deals this year. “We expect a busy fourth quarter.” Citi, JP Morgan, Barclays, and Goldman Sachs were global coordinators. HSBC, Jefferies and Numis acted as joint bookrunners. Rothschild advised the company.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/the-hut-group-prepares-to-trade-after-sealing-bumper-7-billion-ipo.html

I think Matt's desire was to keep everything where possible UK based

There's good reason why companies are moving across to NASDAQ, market governance is much tighter with SEC jumping on any flim flam activity resulting in heavy fines, compare that to the FCA.

To the poster asking about UK shares transferred to NASDAQ, you would need to complete a WBEN form then it's pretty much the same as UK market.

There's also a big difference in stock short sold for both Boo and Asos, this could lead to higher volitivity

BOOHOO.COM PLC 7.5%
ASOS PLC 7.5%

...but UK institutions can buy shares in Boo..

intrigued by Goldman's interest here, this is unusual before any catalyst type news has been released.

Being listed on three exchanges means each has to have its own liquidity requirements, AIM is pretty relaxed about this along the lines of 'sufficient' but HK and NASDAQ would be a lot tighter, only mention this as the free float quite small after Goldman's arrival.

What was the verdict on this, buying more time for the markets to improve is my cents worth.

IR have confirmed (as/posted on here) separation is now complete, so just a case of timing to put Softbank on notice, it does sound like its still in play at least that's the impression I get.

===========================================================
Some extra detail perhaps not widely known, extract from Barclay's

"We think the legal separation of the assets is now largely done and would expect the notification to Softbank regarding the option on Ingenuity to be sent soon. The 3-month clock should stop ticking by the end of October / early November."

If you had read the report or had any knowledge of such things you wouldn't need me to explain.

You really need to read the disclaimers and caveats before making such comments, these are naïve in the extreme.

"Licker because that's what you're paying for. An independent assessment. Andrew Ross (and analyst) base their career on writing their independent opinion. It's not a marketing pamphlet"

Abcam, a pioneering Cambridge biotech, is abandoning its London listing in favour of New York, despite the UK government’s efforts to make the country a life sciences superpower.

The antibodies maker, one of the largest on London’s junior Aim market, is cancelling its London listing after a more than $150mn offering on the Nasdaq in October 2020.

The decision comes after SoftBank chose to put it plans for a London initial public offering of Cambridge-based Arm on hold because of political turmoil in the UK government.

https://www.ft.com/content/addf18f3-4494-41cf-9500-045c1a68c468

THG's institutional shareholders are overseas, would make a lot more sense than this circus.

Have a look at Barclay's track record, it seems they are trying to generate client trading revenue issuing questionable research.