Member Info for 1pencil

Early days yet, but in the absence of any public letters to management are we to assume both Kelso and Sparta are happy bunnies?

Presumably they only get 'active' when they can make an improvement ?

Evening OSG, keep up the news flow, always handy for those checking couple of times a day.

Glad someone else noticed this, berating holders last year for wanting to accept 200p bid.

"Kando, what happened to you fella? You used to say this was worth 10 pounds a share. 2 quid takeover bids should be rejected out of hand etc etc

Strange to go from so pro to so cynical. I always respected your views a lot"

It's an unusual situation to have activist/hedge fund type investors pitted against those with swaps/short trades.

Likely those that have an interest in keeping the price where it is (one leg of swaps) have potentially subsidised (and facilitated) entry for Sparta/Keslo, that's gotta hurt some.

Sparta news piece in the Times sets the tone, egos and reputations to the fore..let the game commence..

Morning all, meltdown Monday.

With regard to Sparta, I can only conclude they buy non-disclosable stakes (under 3%) in companies which are considered undervalued/potential bid targets, once a bid comes in then rule 8 disclosure pop up revealing everyone's hand.

Put this on Kelso thread:

So Blue Prism Group plc, Clinigen Group plc, Biffa and John Wood were all bid for - basically all of their holdings, that's 100% strike rate unless I am missing something?

https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=1&words=Sparta+Capital#

So Blue Prism Group plc, Clinigen Group plc, Biffa and John Wood were all bid for - basically all of their holdings, that's 100% strike rate unless I am missing something?

..mmmmm

https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=1&words=Sparta+Capital#

Sparta Capital Management Ltd are based in London. 3% rule should apply here for formal notifications, i.e above 3% threshold.

I would expect at least 3% to;

a) Make it worth their while
b) Have any sort of a voice with management

Kelso 's current holding won't open any doors unless they work with any party, Sparta ?

OSG, you pipped me to the post, this is my take also.
------------------------------------

Pondering Januarys update, it suggests the US automated commissioning could in part be connected to GMV figure quoted below.

Its possible we may get some official feedback as we near the end of Q1 on both these events, failing that April prelims/Q1 update

Extracts from 17 January 2023 Trading Statement

· During 2023, the Group expects to add over £1 billion incremental GMV to the Ingenuity platform.

· Margin recovery confidence in FY 2023 and beyond supported by:

o the full year effect of the £100 million cost savings actioned, including exiting loss-making categories;

o US warehouse automation live in Q1 2023; and

o substantially lower raw material buying costs (principally whey), with reduced buying prices YoY confirmed for Q1 2023.

China looks like financial utopia when viewing the turmoil facing Western banks, bitcoin malarkey - declining inflation coupled with lower interest rates.

The word 'sensible' springs to mind ..

Hutchmed held steady despite huge index moves, has all the hall marks of being accumulated - lets see.

5 year graph for Hammerson (shopping malls) underlines the long term structural changes in consumer trends, this is THG's future customers but overtime.

This is the long term trend which are irreversible, compounded by higher energy costs, wage inflation and consumer habits.

Management identified this many years ago and started to invest accordingly, we are now in the latter stages of that early investment which should start to bear fruit over the next 12/24 months.

https://www.greyorange.com/blog-posts/top-retail-trends-to-recession-proof-your-business-2023/

Sticky, sticky, sticky..!

The bird has spoken..well said

Canary3 RE: THG - It takes some doing to be red today. Today 13:20

Mentioned before several times regarding Ocado, imv its a good general profile of what Ingenuity could look like going forward.

See bottom like to partnerships and rationale

https://www.ocadogroup.com/our-solutions/our-global-partners/aeon?utm_source=organic_social&utm_medium=og_facebook&utm_campaign=aeon

Everyone gets downbeat when the s/p falls, Kando you posted this excerpt on 6th March - s/p touched 74.4p

06 Mar 2023 10:13

"I don't see THG changing course on Ingenuity, nor selling Beauty. The winding down of On Demand is the most you're going to get in terms of long term strategy shift. There isn't the necessity to do anything else. The rest of the business has the potential for sustained growth and healthy margin. Their ambitions are still there to be realized now that much of the investment has already been made."

Its around this time spread betters increase margin on CFD's/S/B's

Choppy times indeed, the best quote ever ?

"Ladies and Gentlemen, the worlds B/S just got repriced"

Considering where we were at the weekend, not a bad result really, both Dow and NASDAQ rallied into the close too.

The Crest data mentioned by Oke doesn't actually say short it says on loan. I doubt whether there is a single net short position on THG, just longs with their own trade desk.

See Citadel TR1 on Boo as an example of this.

Jatw, my mistake, so used to dividing the NASDAQ price by five - force of habit

Tis a bit odd, HCM now carries the least amount of risk but has the lowest share price.

It could be market makers/props are trying to fill an order, pulling it up/down like this is a sure fire way to create a bit of selling pressure - Goldman's with a long short makes this easy especially with such low volume.

Last update on the HK register of interest (aside from director dealing) showed M & G increasing after previous sells.

https://sc.hkexnews.hk/gb/di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSAllFormList.aspx?sa2=an&sid=344192&corpn=HUTCHMED+(China)+Ltd.&sd=15/03/2022&ed=15/03/2023&cid=0&sa1=cl&scsd=15%2f03%2f2022&sced=15%2f03%2f2023&sc=13&src=MAIN&lang=EN&g_lang=en&

Yup, from the CMB note below;

"HCM continued to prove its strong commercial capabilities by achieving remarkable 63% YoY growth in oncology product sales in FY22, reaching US$124.6mn, driven by its three commercial drugs. HCM targets to grow the oncology product sales by high double-digit in FY23 while the management expects US$450-550mn consolidated oncology revenue in FY23, including partial recognition of US$400mn upfront payment from Takeda.

NASDAQ at time of writing traded just over 100k ADR's or 20k UK shares, to put that into perspective it's less than I bought last week.

Valuing the whole company on 50k of shares traded many of which will be churned is unrealistic, its a tiny amount.

Good to see the Takeda deal close;

Following the closing of the exclusive license agreement, HUTCHMED Limited will receive US$400 million shortly, and is eligible to receive up to US$730 million in additional potential payments relating to regulatory, development and commercial sales milestones, as well as royalties on net sales. Marketing authorization submissions in the U.S., Europe and Japan are planned to complete in 2023, with the rolling submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") initiated in December 2022.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HCM/closing-of-fruquintinib-license-to-takeda-sy8n5kz6i9t91b0.html