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Couple of potential bright spots for Plant healthcare this year, wet conditions in Europe last year have seen a shortage of seed potatoes for planting, prices continue to rise.

EU faces dire potato seed supply challenges for 2024 growing season, prices soar

February 8, 2024

https://www.potatonewstoday.com/2024/02/08/eu-faces-dire-potato-seed-supply-challenges-for-2024-growing-season-prices-soar/

It would be good to hear if PHC has secured partners in these regions, especially Poland (quotes from news releases):

‘Achieved three significant country registrations for Harpinαβ in Europe (Poland, France and Cyprus); plans are advancing for product launches in these geographies, anticipated in 2024.’

‘In August, Harpinαβ successfully achieved Mutual Recognition in Poland. This is a major milestone for the Group and permits immediate sales of Harpinαβ in Poland. Poland is the sixth largest agricultural producer in the European Union, and the second largest potato producer behind Germany, growing around 322,000 hectares.’

January 18, 2024

Mintec Benchmark Prices (MBP) for White Potatoes rose by 16.3%

https://www.mintecglobal.com/top-stories/short-supply-pushes-uk-potato-prices-up

Still plenty of time to catch this year’s growing season, if successful could have a material impact on 2024 results.

Quality post Yorek, quite an endorsement choosing an overseas company (THG) over home grown US counterparts !

This is what Cavendish detailed in their November update

‘Our FY24 revenue forecasts have been reduced by 28% in line with guidance and, despite this downgrade, a more cautious outlook on costs means we still expect the company to reach positive EBITDA in FY24.’

Going back to the consultation last year, it felt odd as management didn’t offer any alternatives to the current situation. It wouldn’t surprise me if they already had interest from a third party and this was a toe in the water exercise to see how investors feel about going private.

The attraction for one of PHC’s existing partners must be tempting, Origin for example (owners of Agrii UK) currently have a €20m share buyback programme and well-funded, Chris Richards is also Chairman.

Wilbur-Ellis similar situation, Plant Healthcare would almost earnings enhancing from day one with cost savings, plus the benefit of $100m of accrued losses going forward.

No worries, in general terms PHC need to generate around $16m to reach breakeven. Cavendish have forecast $16.6 for this year which seems too high, at least at the moment anyway.

In the right market I think this is very achievable especially with several new products on offer, if they can pull back on admin costs it will bring this threshold down.

In terms of value, product development, patents and registrations are all barriers to entry, this is why many think consolidation is inevitable as currently too fragmented.

One other thing worth mentioning for any potential acquirer is the significant accrued losses of nearly $100m, this in itself has value to the right purchaser.

Major Holders

MUTUAL FUNDS

INSTITUTIONAL

DIRECT HOLDERS

https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/sfor?countrycode=uk&mod=searchresults_companyquotes&mod=searchbar

AVDV - Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF

https://fintel.io/so/gb/sfor

The back back can be renewed at the next AG, and/or terms changed.

Fraser Group launching further buyback up to £80m

Prominent logo position, also IC on the arm:

https://www.williamsf1.com/posts/cbf99605-759c-4615-a5cf-455ed4344b86/quiz-get-ready-for-the-2024-season

Launch day:

https://www.williamsf1.com/videos/83ee51ad-10a5-4507-b407-8f27fcdabff5/watch-fans-in-new-york-at-our-season-launch?autoplay=1

Couldn't find this graph earlier which demonstrates the painfully long and drawn out process from development to actual sales, I doubt many investors would have signed up knowing just how long it would take.

https://www.planthealthcare.com/new-technology/pretec

We are (thankfully) now at the end of this process with sales gaining traction albeit at a time when agi markets are very challenging, FMC recently reported only modest growth for 2024 of 2-4%

Biotalys NV (BTLS.BR) are listed in Brussels and enjoy a much (much) higher valuation with no real income as yet, if PHC were going to re-list somewhere else this would be a good place imo.

PHC have a good product line up now which has gone from just one (Harpin) to say five if you include variants, geographical locations have increased too with new registrations and/or partners, the problem is one of scale and reaching that elusive tipping point.

Griffiths, I would have thought he would have sold by now, his recent purchase of XSG is somewhat perplexing.

During the last IMC presentation one question/answer related to a wind down of R & D following current product launches.

Without going back the answer was something like, 'heavy lifting is done, time to reap rewards' or words to that effect.

This has to be the core objective for 24/5 to get those costs down whilst showing modest growth, 10% announced so far but it needs to halve at least for this year imo.

Agree, TAKE-oh has some great attributes for soy, Brazil partner announcement would be good, or can they not use existing partners ?

Healthcare services will be a main area of focus for HarbourVest’s China investments this year, as the country’s ageing population and growing household income drive demand for “more premium and better healthcare services”, including outpatient treatment and elective surgeries.

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3251567/china-drive-private-market-opportunities-asia-healthcare-consumption-offer-pickings-harbourvest

NC ag tech pioneer launching eco-friendly 'plant vaccine' into Brazil soybean market

https://www.ncbiotech.org/news/nc-ag-tech-pioneer-launching-eco-friendly-plant-vaccine-brazil-soybean-market?utm_content=281189432&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&hss_channel=lcp-28700

New owners of The Body Shop line up administrators just weeks after 250 stores were sold in £207m deal

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13066951/New-owners-Body-Shop-line-administrators-just-weeks-250-stores-sold-207m-deal.html

Updates to the consumer price index showed that the broad basket of goods and services measured increased 0.2% on the month, less than the originally reported 0.3%, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/-inflation-in-december-was-even-lower-than-first-reported-the-government-says.html

Bit early to assess fully, but drop in HCM shorts by 12% or so..

https://www.sfc.hk/en/Regulatory-functions/Market/Short-position-reporting/Aggregated-reportable-short-positions-of-specified-shares

Talking of lofty ambitions, that's a Doozy from REVB this morning ~

"We are confident we can achieve our ambition to deliver annual retail brand sales of £1 billion by 2030, establishing Revolution Beauty as a top five mass beauty brand globally."

HCM at the end of H1 had $850m in cash and growing, R & D is on the decline, plenty for incremental purchases over 12-24 months.

Checking the register with the public info shows no change in major holders for sometime, buying back 5% would take some time and may not be successful due to illiquidity and/or rising share price

Alibaba has just announced a further increase up to 2027

'Alibaba said the $25 billion increase is added to its share repurchase program through the end of March 2027, bringing the total available under the plan to $35.3 billion.'

I think there is probably a moral obligation as Hutchmed is HK based and listed, not to mention a large proportion of its sale and development originate in China.

HCM is listed in HK which will mean at least some exposure to these initiatives via the ETF purchases, don't think they are done yet..

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/07/china-appoints-markets-veteran-wu-qing-as-new-chairman-of-securities-regulator.html

Cash flow is strong with enough capital reserves to support a modest (see SFOR) share buy back, free float is only around 20% so 5% should be more than enough imo.

Its going t be very difficult for the board to just ignore these requests, not only are they coming from shareholders but government regulators too.

Copy and link article to board, more the merrier imo.