RE: ..in other news ..weekend musings15 Mar 2026 13:00
I think we have to be realistic and accept that at least some of these points have to unwind, if we take whey and FX pricing (as these are easy to monitor) this is what Matt said during Jan Q4 TU:
'' I think the math we did around Q3 was GBP 65 million of annual profitability has been temporarily taken from us since the IPO date just because of whey pricing''
THG's balance sheet would look totally different just on this one item alone.
Using 2024 figures - Rest of World - revenue and attribute a guesstimate of £100m for Asia Yen denominated income, less 28% v IPO FX rate - that's another £28m gone from annual net profit.
'THG has been affected more than most have they not'
Absolutely, THG was highly geared ready to build on the whole Covid thing of online shopping, part of that gearing related to automated fulfilment centres using robots (Autostore) - this upfront investment was CAPEX heavy but was okay while money was cheap and Covid quarantine was still on everyone's minds, things however didn't continue on that path and debt heavy companies were subsequently seen as a liability.
Listed companies make statements based on the best information available at the time, it is part of an investors job to assess how future news flow impacts projections made in those statements, this is highlighted under the 'Cautionary' notes with each release.
VAT rebate = pay off debt, lower gearing
Companies that come out the other end of these cycles are generally a lot leaner and sharper, I put THG firmly into that category with more automation and a much reduced headcount.
Timescales, its impossible to say but cycles are called cycles for a reason, its the timing that's the tricky bit ..: )
(add in Increased National Insurance contributions to list below)