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'elf care stocks bouncing on news..

> The Trump administration will increase average Medicare Advantage payments by 2.48%, or more than $13 billion, in 2027, according to CMS.

> That’s significantly higher than the proposed payment rate hike of 0.09% that the government floated in January.

> Shares of UnitedHealth, CVS Health and Humana jumped in after-hours trading.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/06/trump-medicare-advantage.html

There's is definitely a row back of the Ai hype, media have picked up on Microsoft's wording, Ai summary below:

'Microsoft's Copilot Terms of Use explicitly state that the service is "for entertainment purposes only," warning users not to rely on it for important advice and to use it at their own risk due to potential inaccuracies. This language, last updated in October 2025, has sparked criticism for contradicting Microsoft's aggressive marketing of Copilot as a serious productivity tool integrated into Microsoft 365 and Windows'

Context: The controversy highlights a gap between the $30/month pricing and the "entertainment" label, with adoption data showing only 3.3% of eligible users actually pay for the tool. '

Is this realisation by vendors and end users a sign that things are returning to normal back to companies that specialise in specific areas such as media, advertising or law rather than opt for a unreliable Ai model..?

My own view is yes, CEO's need not worry about finger pointing for missing out on the next 'big thing' as the finger can be pointed back at various limitations, it may even slow productivity in some cases..

Distressed-debt funds target private credit downturn as ‘greatest opportunity’ since 2008

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth/wealth-investing/distressed-debt-funds-target-private-credit-downturn-greatest-opportunity-2008

I do wonder if some of the green shoots are not attributable to the pullback in all things Ai, S4's continued turnaround accelerated towards the end of 2025 into 2026 whilst the exact opposite happened with lavish Ai spend/projects.

Blue Owl now firmly in the media spotlight with redemptions being capped, these guys are big investors in all things Ai especially data centres.

Finance

Blue Owl caps private credit funds redemptions at 5% after steep request levels

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/blue-owl-private-credit-funds-redemptions-requests.html

Look whats happened at S4, started the year at 16p or thereabouts, closed today at 12 month high of 30.40 in part due to a reduction in leverage (debt).

THG is a bit further behind on that front but its entirely feasible, especially if pound continues to weaken.

Get the bunting out, looks like a 12 month high too..?

Interesting story on Lord Allen stepping down as chair of the British Horse racing Authority, just goes to show how quickly he exits when not happy with governance

Summary from Ai

Lord (Charles) Allen resigned as Chair of the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) in March 2026 after a short, six-month tenure due to disagreements over governance reforms.

Key points regarding Lord Allen's resignation and tenure:

Resignation: Announced on March 3, 2026, after only six months in the role, having formally started in September 2025.

Reason: The resignation followed an inability to reach an agreement on restructuring the BHA board to be fully independent and commercially focused, requiring unanimous consent from members.

You asked Ai Jatw?

Yep, huge number of deals going through, surely the rabbit is a good contender with ATTC pipe line and cash on hand..

If another pharma wanted a gateway into the Chinese market Hutchmed might be a good option.

DRAM prices falling for the first time in ages likely spurred on by lack of follow through on 'letters of intent'.

SK Hynix Inc has lost all of its gains for the year.

DDR5 RAM prices fall by as much as 30%, but memory shortage likely far from over

If Asia is any indication, other parts of the world could see memory prices fall further. After U.S. and European buyers noticed fluctuations, TrendForce found sharp declines in retail DDR5 RAM costs in China. Yet, critical DRAM manufacturers insist that demand from AI data centers remains steady.

(link too long to post)

Good post 100notout, there's lots of wild cards out there which could materially change outcomes, not least of which FX weakening of GBP.

The whey situation may moderate next year as more and more plants come online, there are maybe 4/7 fermentation plants due spurred on by high commodity prices.

Interesting thing which may give fermentation an edge over traditional whey is there is no by product like cheese, not sure how this impacts the cost model but on the surface sounds like a win.

Lot of money already sunk into fermentation process based presumably on much lower final prices, big incentive to get product out there and capitalise on current pricing..

On another note I was pleased to see Andrew Brough at schroders buying in feb, this guy is bit of a legend investing wise, very old skool but strong results overtime, one of his funds went up 85% after dropping 20% in 2021.

He has CD at just under 26% and very much overweight, contrast this to iShares who almost have the exact opposite approach.

I think China is doing okay too, property market is showing signs of recovery in pockets which was a long term drag on economy.

The notion that regulators are getting behind home grown companies also feels like a positive, hopefully draws a line under the regulatory issues from last year.

Schroder UK Smaller Companies opened two new positions in Feb, total just under 14m.

Matts share purchase of 24,395,170 also in Feb...

Dollar having a go, see link posted on THG too..

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=GBP&view=1M

Https://youtu.be/bABxlCyWTX4

Lead story, Archer Daniels are a global player in the food processing world:

ADM, which remained a shareholder, highlighted the broader role of precision fermentation in ingredient production. Fabiana Bianchi, President of Asia-Pacific at ADM, said: “Precision fermentation is opening new opportunities to produce bio-based ingredients and solutions efficiently and at scale. Our continued partnership with ScaleUp Bio reflects ADM's commitment to bringing these innovations to market across a growing range of industries.”

https://www.proteinproductiontechnology.com/post/scaleup-bio-secures-fusionopolis-ventures-as-shareholder-alongside-adm-to-expand-fermentation-platform

One thing that may not be factored in is the new and anticipated production of non-dairy, this market has evolved since the early days when manufacturing was piece meal and not ready to scale - wind forward (whey forward ?) 4/5 years and there are a number of large partnerships building plants.

Web site dedicated to alternative protein production as well as more traditional forms .

Myprotein is launching a Mars-flavored version of its Impact Whey Protein on March 24, 2026, extending its partnership with Mars Wrigley.

https://www.proteinproductiontechnology.com/post/myprotein-expands-mars-partnership-with-new-impact-whey-protein-launch

Ready for prime time

A startup formed by Fonterra and DSM-Firmenich to produce dairy proteins via precision fermentation, Vivici was arguably late to the animal-free dairy game, but has been able to move rapidly by leveraging its founders’ expertise in dairy proteins and industrial-scale biomanufacturing, van Sint Fiet told AgFunderNews in February.

https://agfundernews.com/liberation-labs-teams-up-with-vivici-to-produce-animal-free-whey-protein-in-indiana

Trump has really rattled the EU with these tariffs, never seen so many coordinated moves to step away from US based companies, the latest being Microsoft in Germany.

Their move to an open standards format has been on the cards for sometime but has recently gained approval, this is a huge win for EU software devs/suppliers and so especially those specialising in Linux.

Other EU countries are set to follow.

Only mention this as the whole data centre thing is on real wobbly legs with Microsoft, oracle and other big players caught up in what looks to be a huge bubble. Oracle share price has halved due to massive debt obligations, Meta (and YouTube) lost a pivotal case last week, the implications of which could have far reaching ramifications into platform governance.

None of this has any direct relevance to S4 of course but it does affect sentiment which can be a huge driver.

It sounds like China are really getting behind their home grown talent, this set of comes into effect may of this year, includes the 'fast track'designation too for qualifying candidates.

'China to Grant Market and Data Exclusivity for Innovative Drugs for the First Time

Incentive and support mechanisms for the development of innovative drugs

China has introduced a variety of incentive programs aimed at encouraging the development of innovative therapies and under-invested drugs.

One such program is the Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) program mentioned above. Introduced in pilot form in 2020, this program provides additional resources and guidance to support the development of improved new drugs used to prevent or treat diseases that seriously endanger life or severely affect quality of life. There must also currently be no effective prevention or treatment methods for the diseases, or alternatively, there must be sufficient evidence to show a significant clinical advantage compared to existing treatments. For drugs included in the BTD program, the Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) will prioritize resource allocation and communication in order to strengthen guidance and promote drug development'

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-drug-exclusivity-regulations-innovative-drugs/

Its a bot surely, not one can be this stupid ?

'And the fact that we don't have facts on the thg and ingenuity deal should be a fact on its own no?'

Forget Gemini, just post some facts to backup your baseless posts.