RE: Thoughts....4 Jul 2016 11:42
Ejackson: "What has it cost to do this? Well, the simple answer is, not much. A 30% shareholding is very roughly double what Fanatics paid for Kitbag but MA gets the client database, the upside to Express Gifts, a fabulous new warehouse distribution centre and no wage bill."
I think perhaps I could challenge that analysis a bit.
MA (or SPD) has paid roughly £50m I would estimate for the 30% position (£30m for the initial 15m shares @ £2.00 each and £19m for the other 11m shares at £1.70 each, assuming those 11m shares were effectively acquired at around the £1.70 price that the big trades went through at on 24th March when the CFD position seems to have been acquired).
Kitbag was acquired for £14m (£11.6m headline plus £2.3m adjustment), but it came with £17m of net assets including £19m of inventory offset by £12m of payables (if I am reading page 89 of the annual report correctly). So net of net assets Kitbag appears to have been acquired for free (but taking on some future losses) and even if you had to write off all the receivables and gave no value to assets other than inventory the "premium" was much less than the headline number.
Post the sale of Kitbag I think the "danger" to Findel minority shareholders of having SPD on the board or even holding the chairman role is much less than it was before the sale. The benefit of a distribution deal between SPD and FIndel should be significant to Findel.
So personally I welcome the apparent rescuing of the situation. We now (apparently) have a fully-engaged SPD holding 30% of the shares and keen to pursue the distribution deal. This is fantastic news compared to the alternative of having a frustrated and potentially vengeful SPD holding 17% of the shares plus a derivative. In my mind a seat on the board is a price well worth paying for delivery of this deal and even the chairman role could be acceptable if the board can convince themselves that the chairman would be sufficiently focused on Findel and that conflicts of interest could be managed. How MA would convince the board that he had time to be executive chairman I don't know, but I presume he will try and if Findel could secure this commitment then it might be no bad thing.
I'm not sure if "asset stripping" is a risk, but given the lack of product overlap post-Kitbag, I would have thought any such risk is manageable. The synergy here appears to be SPD product with FDL distribution which ought to be a win-win subject to fair terms being negotiated.
So the upside scenario for me is that they do the distribution deal, MA gets on the board (maybe as chairman) and the company then makes demonstrable progress on its financials over the next 6-12 months, causing a re-rating of the share price. Once MA is happy that the Findel deal brings the benefits he anticipated to SPD then he moves to secure control of the company throug