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See - they do happen! I wonder though, given the relatively small bounce in the share price after the vote last week, whether "the market" was actually already building in a reasonable probability of an issue arising here.

Actually, with reference to my comment about the "irrevocable undertakings" being no longer applicable I think that was incorrect. Reading the documents it appears to me that they have undertaken to sell their shares to Hytera under the acquisition, not just to vote for the deal in yesterday's meetings. But even so, I would have expected the arb to narrow today. As RickyBobby comments, a few % seems more than adequate return for the remaining risk and time to completion - unless I'm missing something. This level of return suggests to me that perhaps the market is assuming that there is still a Chinese regulatory approval to come, although I would have thought Sepura and Hytera would have been explicit about that in yesterday's rns if it were the case.

I think you're probably right on the competition aspect, but as I said, regulators do occasionally produce surprises. I was just commenting on the "guaranteed profit" question. What is positive I think is that there was no reference to Chinese regulatory conditions in yesterday's rns. So although it's not 100% clear, I would interpret the rns as suggesting that the required Chinese approvals (use of forex etc) have been received. If that's right then I am a bit surprised the price hasn't moved up more today and the volume isn't higher. I would have thought that now we've had the shareholder vote, those institutions that were "locked in" by the "irrevocable undertakings" might be interested in selling if they could get a price which reflected the time value of money and remaining (small) risk to completion. And I would have thought the arb players who are expert at setting a price to take account of these factors would be interested in buying.

No, because the acquisition is still dependent on regulatory approval in Germany and Spain. Regulators can spring surprises and what do you think Hytera would do if the German regulator refused to allow the acquisition without significant concessions? Sepura as we know from the last press release supplies TETRA solutions to 11 out of 16 German states. Hytera also has a reasonable presence in Germany, although I think mainly in the commercial rather than the public first responder sector. I think the chance of the German regulator killing the acquisition is small, but it is not zero.

It'll be interesting to see where it opens tomorrow. I would have thought most of the arb will disappear (i.e. it will open much closer to 20p). It looks as though the rns actually came out after normal trading had finished but before the closing auction had completed. That went through at 19p. We can always hope the regulatory delay allows Motorola to get off the pot and stick a counter-offer in.

What a day, waiting for that rns. A bit of regulatory delay to come after all.

I wonder if it's possible Hytera and Sepura want to get some or all the remaining regulatory approvals through before issuing the rns at 7am UK time tomorrow? i.e. if they got the ok from Sepura shareholders this morning then perhaps Hytera thinks it can get some Chinese regulatory approvals finalised tomorrow morning (Chinese time) and then they can issue an update on this together with the voting results before the UK market opens tomorrow. It would seem a bit odd to me as the longer they delay the more chance there must be of news leaking, but then the delay in announcing the results of the vote seems a bit odd anyway.

The forward timetable is indicative. Even if there has just been a straight yes vote today, there's still room for some delay on any remaining regulatory approvals. The indicative timetable suggests that neither side sees the likelihood of delay for those approvals as very likely, but I would have thought it is still possible.

I went through this on Pace in 2015. Then the court meeting and general meeting were at 11am and 11:10am respectively and they got the rns out with the results at 12:07. So given the sepura meetings were at 10am and 10:15am, the rns really ought to be out pretty soon.

The deadlines for proxy voting were yesterday morning so I think Sepura would have had a good idea yesterday afternoon as to whether they will get 75%. In fact I would expect that they would have already sounded out most of the declared institutions ahead of the deadline and would have known some time ago whether the vote was looking close. Whatever the likely outcome is from the proxy votes, I don't think that news has leaked because if it had I would have expected the share price to move and higher traded volumes. If they haven't got the 75% (or the majority in number for the Court Meeting) then I think they might open and then adjourn the meetings tomorrow to give themselves time to try to resolve the matter with Hytera and any significant shareholders who have voted against. Either way I would expect we'll get an RNS with the results of the votes (if they happen) or the adjournments around lunchtime tomorrow. Maybe also an update on the regulatory approvals.

Extract below on relative margins from the Bloomberg report on the subject. 'Motorola, one of the largest suppliers of communications equipment to first responders, enjoys an 83.6 percent gross margin on handset sales in the U.S., while device sales in Europe are at 9 percent, according to Citron. “While Motorola has many operating divisions, the bulk of its profits come from selling overpriced handsets into its single-source contracts in the U.S.,” Citron said in the report. Motorola Solutions, in a statement, said it “strongly disagrees” with the short-sellers’s assertions.' https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-07/motorola-solutions-falls-after-citron-alleges-u-s-price-gouging Perhaps what MSI need is a distraction for investors, such as, oh I don't know, maybe a last minute bid for a competitor which has a business skewed away from the US??

Interesting development... Not sure how this plays to Hytera's ambitions in the US market. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/short-seller-andrew-left-motorola-181500468.html

You're welcome, jamesroo. I'm leaning towards keeping the rest of my shares through to news of the meeting now. The fact that another German state has gone for a Sepura Tetra solution, despite what looks like an imminent change of control, must be a positive for Hytera. So in the (relatively unlikely) event that one of the votes (General Meeting and Court Meeting) fails, I would hope Hytera might be minded to stump up a bit more. In any event, liquidity seems to have all but dried up and there's little sign of the institutions getting cold feet, so perhaps best just to wait it out now. At least if it does go through it is expected to be a swift finish: meetings this Thursday, suspension on Friday 17th and effective date Monday 20th according to the indicative timetable.

The deadline for proxy voting for the General Meeting has now passed, so Sepura should have a pretty good idea whether or not they've got the 75% I would have thought. If they don't think they have then I presume they will try to adjourn the meeting pending discussion with Hytera (and perhaps key shareholders) on how to resolve the issue.

Business as usual still going on. 2 contract wins announced today on the "news" section of the Sepura site, the first of which (20,000 radios to one of the German states) is a real big one I think. Adds a certain something to speculation about what might happen in the shareholder vote on Thursday. Could this be enough to stiffen Henderson et al's resolve to try to renegotiate with Hytera ahead of the vote? 1. Thuringia places confidence in Sepura for state-wide contract "Sepura has been awarded a significant contract for almost 20,000 radios by the Free State of Thuringia - the eleventh of the sixteen German states to opt for Sepura TETRA solutions. ..." 2. PowerTrunk announces first commercial TETRA system in US territory of Guam "PowerTrunk, Inc., part of the Sepura Group, announces the first digital TETRA radio communications system for the U.S. Territory of Guam."

Cheers jamesroo - just what we needed to cheer us up! I suspect it's just supply and demand given the relatively small move in the price. The (presumed) arb players took a bit of a break from buying and there's probably still a relatively steady stream of small investors such as me bottling it before the vote and wanting to reduce their exposure. So BNP came back into the market yesterday but perhaps with a lower buy limit price. If no other institution is competing with BNP for those shares then the price may drift down until it finds a floor set by another institution stepping in to arbitrage or even private investors coming back.

I've bitten the bullet and sold about 1/2 the ones I bought on 16th December at a small loss. I achieved just over 19.1p compared to the purchase price of 19.5p. I bought them in the hope of a counter-bid before the shareholder vote. That looks increasingly unlikely to me now and so I am reducing my exposure as I don't want to carry such a big position into the vote.

N+1 Singer and Cantor Fitzgerald keep churning out their views according to N&P (although I'm not sure what "corporate" means). Cantor Fitzgerald apparently reiterates Buy and a 250p target today. http://www.nandp.co.uk/sharedealing/company/?companyCode=FDL

It could be the price has dropped a bit to reflect a perception that a counter-bid is now less likely before the shareholder vote. I must say I thought if we were going to get one it would have come in by the start of this week, i.e. just after the shareholder circular was published. I'm certainly thinking about reducing my holding ahead of the vote. While I was happy to buy more when the Hytera offer came in, because I thought a counter-bid was possible before the shareholder vote, I am a bit less happy about keeping that holding through the vote. I think there is still a chance that shareholders (led perhaps by Henderson and the ex-GS duo Green & Sherwood) vote down the deal as a tactic to get Hytera to sweeten its offer. But there is also the chance that shareholders vote down the deal because they think the company can do better remaining independent - and if that happens and Hytera walks away I think there will be a significant drop in the shareprice.

Pretty good, particularly on underlying growth. Nice to see core debt moving in the right direction. Shame about the further exceptionals - looks like another £2m of write-downs (Education again?) to come in the second half as well as £2m on other stuff - had they already guided to this? The recent rise in share price looks to me suspiciously like it might have been in anticipation of this TU, although I suppose that could have been a combination of clever read-across and good forecasting rather than inside information. Looks like Findel should now be negotiating from a position of relative strength in any further discussions with Sports Direct.