Member Info for 15LIVES

Rainbird

I stick by what I said on the 18th March. I do believe sub 50p for ITM during the course of the next few years and during which time I think global stockmarkets shall retrace.

It is indeed about direction of travel and ITM shall certainly benefit in time.

Not sure how much information ITM have provided from their perspective regarding domestic gas boilers and hydrogen but as a gas engineer you may be interested in the direction of travel from my industry's viewpoint. Apologies if I'm merely repeating any of ITM's news releases:

The UK's first live pilot project to inject zero-carbon hydrogen into a gas network to heat homes and businesses is now up and running. HyDeploy is a ground breaking trial at Keele University in Staffordshire. The HyDeploy demonstration is injecting up to 20 per cent (by volume) of hydrogen into Keele University's existing natural gas network, feeding 100 homes and 30 faculty buildings. Keele University is seen as an ideal location because it owns and operates its own private gas network, which can be safely isolated from the wider gas network. The blending of Hydrogen with natural gas is seen as a perfect place to kickstart the hydrogen supply chain to eventually attain higher blends with the aim of 100% hydrogen. The Keele trial is due to run for most of 2020. At the end of the trial boilers that have been running on the hydrogen blend will be reviewed. After the trial , the electrolyser and grid entry unit will be decommissioned and transported to bigger trials, this time on public gas networks in the North-East and North-West of England. The HyDeploy programme is expected to conclude in 2023.

One of the biggest concerns in our industry regarding hydrogen is how to deal with leakage within the national network. Focus is naturally on the workings of the appliances but from a critical safety point of view great emphasis must also be placed on leakages within the system and this is one of the major risk assessments that must be addressed before hydrogen can be allowed to be piped into the national network.

Pre-trial laboratory work at Keele included limit-testing a sample of gas appliances, which involved increasing the hydrogen content of the fuel until lightback occurred. This showed that lightback did not occur until over 80% hydrogen by volume, with some achieving over 90%.

Incidentally, hydrogen was a major component of 'town gas', which was created from coal and used widely before the discovery of North Sea gas in the 1960s. Up to 60% of town gas (by volume) being used by consumers was hydrogen.

I have long been interested in the manufacture and use of hydrogen to help solve our environmental crises and from the perspective of an investor. I have great hope for ITM and believe it shall be at the forefront of the drive to decarbonise our societies in time. However, as I have stated recently, I believe there are more immediately damaging problems for the wider economy that shall impact the share price here quite considerably as ITM continue their direction of travel. It is for that reason and that reason alone my opinion is one of a strong sell.

Satellite

You're correct in that their existing natural gas boilers shall be able to work on a 20% hydrogen mix so in that sense yea they are producing hydrogen compatible boilers but what they are not doing at the moment is producing boilers specifically for hydrogen. By producing I mean manufacturing as in rolling off the production line.

Just thought it needed clarifying.

Regards.

Satelite

Just for clarity Worcester Bosch are not producing hydrogen boilers at the moment. All existing natural gas boilers in the field shall be able to operate on a 20% hydrogen mix without any necessary modifications. 100% hydrogen boilers are still in the R&D phase at WorcesterBoschhWorcesterBosch and to quote the technical advisor I spoke to ten minutes ago 'many many years away from production of fully hydrogen boilers'. They are struggling at the moment because of there being no combustion flame which is causing flame rectification problems (amongst others).

Regards,
15Lives

Seaangler

At the moment I believe cash to be king so shall not be putting my money in any stocks.

You've question marked how ITM can be on my radar yet at the same time be a strong sell for me. I can only reiterate what I explained in my previous post. Namely, that whist I believe ITM shall be many multiples of what it is today before that happens it shall suffer a significant setback due to general market conditions. A setback which to me warrants not investing in it just yet and most probably not so for the next year or two. Re your PS to my safe stock quote: I did put the word safe in quotation marks and precede it with the word supposed.

Bilboburgler

You are indeed correct about ITM showing resilience during the recent crash. The question investors (potential or otherwise) should now be asking themselves is whether the indices are now reflecting true economic activity or indicating a fools rally. These are unprecedented times and whilst the reasons for the downturn may be different to those of previous times I feel lessons can be learnt from past human behaviour within which lies a certain pattern of inevitability:

On Monday 28th October 1929 the Dow opened at 298 points, already 22% off its peak. By the close of Black Tuesday, 29th October, following complete pandemonium it fell to 230 points. Share prices zigzagged to a low on 13th November with the Dow at 198 points, down 48% from its high early that year. In early 1930 so began the famous fools rally where the Dow recovered 99 points or exactly 50% from the 198 low. In may 1930 the dreaded bear market was underway yet again. By the year end the market had cascaded down 60% from the recovery top. Another false dawn came in early 1931, and there were two more that year. There were five of these downdraughts in the course of 1930 and 1931. And then, in 1932, a hellish final slaughter wave which took stocks down into the dark depths visited half a century earlier.

The above may have happened nearly a century ago but in these Covid-19 times with the sheer havoc and decimation this virus is causing in every structure of our economies and societies no right thinking investor can surely believe this can not happen again.

Toneman

Thanks for your response. Always good to get investor thinking and viewpoint.

I'm not shorting this or any other stock. Shorting is not something I do and if I did not something I could assist by posts on a bulletin board. Neither am I desperate to get into ITM. At the moment I'm not desperate to get into any stock. However, for all the reasons you point out in your post, ITM is on my radar for the long term.

When you have a company such as ITM in an emerging market that is going to drive us forward into the next upwave taking a long term punt based on fundamentals, such as you are doing, is a wise approach. Under normal circumstances the ebbs and flows of the stock market are best ignored as focus is concentrated on the long term. Under such market conditions it's unwise and most likely counter productive to try to maximise ones investment by attempting to ride the daily or weekly fluctuations. Except that these are not normal circumstances. Far from it, and as bright as ITMs future is I find it staggering that the current economic situation is not being mentioned more on here and it is for that reason alone I posted today.

If investors here such as yourself are holding tight for the long term then that's to be acknowledged and respected. I know all too well investing under such circumstances and the uneasy feeling in the pit of ones stomach when thinking about how the chosen share could rocket up further following a potential sell with a view to buying back in lower. So you tell yourself it's the long term that matters and nothing else. Focus is on that future share price years down the line and confidence in it shored up by positive company updates on product innovations, collaborations and general market interest.

Investors and potential investors in ITM are reading and contributing to this bulletin board for one reason and one reason alone: to make money. Whether short, medium or long term and In and out continually or occasionally should make no difference to discussions on where the share price could go before that hoped for peak of which both you and I believe in. I admire your long term fundamental stance to the exclusion of the economic downturn now upon us. My thinking is that along with many other supposed 'safe' stocks ITM is going to get pulled down. Pulled down to such an extent I believe those holding long term shall be wishing they had got out at this price all be it temporarily.

For that reason my opinion is a strong sell.

Amongst all of the recent positive news flow coming from ITM and the general move towards hydrogen in the coming years which shall help drive the emerging technologies into the next upwave I'm curious to know how investors and followers of ITM see the share price moving over the next few years as we go into the economic downturn now upon us. It's interesting learning about ITMs push forward into potential new markets, its collaboration with other companies and the advances in material innovation that build its fuel cells but from an investor point of view I find it staggering that no one on this BB is talking about the general market conditions and how it shall effect ITM over the short to medium term..

Edwina

Don't take my post so personally. Yes I did sell ITM years ago and got into Sirius at 2p. No need for me to tell you that Sirius went right to the wire. What happened there does not detract from the situaton I described in my post of last night. ITM may well bounce today but its overall trend is now heading sub 50p.

I have a bit more than £50 left from Sirius. At least a ton. And as for buying when the newspapers say so you must be joking. With the barrel we are all looking down now I take my lead from the crashes of economic history.

The global economy is about to enter the deepest economic downturn since the 1930s and maybe even a few hundred years before that. This company is one in which its product shall help shape and mould the future and I have no doubt that the technology ITM is helping to push through shall one day also drive its value to great heights. But that day is not now. The cause of the depression now looming over us is irrelevant in it being brought about through deliberate shutdown of large swathes of the economy, for its effects both physically and in terms of investor sentiment shall still be felt as much as any bubble burst by the effects of any consumer excess which have characterised previous downturns. Despite being a technology of the future ITM shall still get pulled down in the next down wave and continuing waves which threaten global stock markets. There is a belief among many investors here that ITMs product in a world desperate to decarbonise shall somehow protect it from the coming downturn. That belief is about to be tested to the extreme over the coming months. As the old saying goes: the stock market does whatever it has to in order to prove most of the people are wrong most of the time.

Bilboburglar

Apologies, I misspelt your moniker on last post.

Bilboburger

I feel with the times we are now in and the advice being given the crippling of the economy is more probable than possible. Company fundamentals in these times play second fiddle to sentiment which is now being threatened by panic and hysteria.

Human behaviour in times such as these is there in economic history : South sea bubble; Mississippi bubble; Tulipomania etc. ITM is a company of the future with its innovative technology and one day has the potential to be multiplies of today's share price. However, today's rapidly changing and increasingly threateningly world shall, I believe, drive investor sentiment instead of company fundamentals for the next several months.

ITM's continuing share price slide shall be punctuated with upward spikes but I feel the low point is somewhere south of 50p.

Bilboburglar

Don't forget number 5 on your list:

Cripple the economy.

Jonathan / Yellow

That makes for interesting reading. Missed that one amongst the many that have been reported each day and which have become the norn of late.

From no previous disclosures to that amount day after vote.

Defo holding out to the bitter end.

Bellers

ITM was what I sold out of to get into Sirius about a decade ago.

They've been back on my radar for a while now. However, Sirius has changed my style of investing. No more long term for me when I think of the peaks and troughs I ignored here choosing instead long term. I'm waiting until the bitter end here for money with half an eye on ITM sub 85p.

All the very best to you over there.

Onwards and upwards.

Sirius?

Who are they?

Woolverstone

I'm with you.

Not writing my valediction just yet.

Quickfeet

Serious question when I ask you why you haven't sold at 5.5p?

Quickfeet

You popping up on this board at this stage of Sirius' cycle saying what you're saying is bound to bring a certain level of suspicion and questioning of your intentions, not to mention a warm, satisfying glow from us no voters as we consider who's behind you.

Quickfeet

Apologies, pledged was an incorrect description. Your correct term would prove my point even more so.

Quickfeet

If those who have pledged are lying about the amount they would invest then surely to god our target would have been well beaten?

FFC

Dividend for me too.

I just caught something on radio 4 news about QIA. Nothing to do with Sirius. I was only half listening but it was something about them doing something or allegedly doing something to hide a level of return they shouldn't have had.

The one thing I've learnt from this foray (if you can call a decade that) in Sirius is that however the big money is held and no matter who by in whatever form nothing can be fully trusted or wholly understood by a minow such as myself.