Member Info for 15LIVES

IBAB

Coming up to the end of the tax year you say.

That's months away.

What's gone is gone and whatever has brought us to this point is now irrelevant. It's now up to us to each decide what this is worth to AA. My feeling is that a rejection of 5.5p shall almost certainly bring a better offer from AA. Of course administration can not be discounted but a rejection of this offer and a withdrawal by AA shall I feel drag this into the political arena.

I'm still hopeful of a white knight now that AA have officially stuck their head above the parapet.

I shall be rejecting this offer.

AlanG

On the contrary. There are many who had more confidence than you.

We're the ones still holding.

Diabolical

How true that is about the indoor climbing walls. I tried it one season through the winter and it bored the hell out of me. I did my apprenticeship in the early eighties on the crags of the peak district as the Llanberis pass with the odd foray to where you mention in the Borrowdale valley. Little Chamonix was awesome.

My climbing moulded my investment approach too I think lol. When you've been avalanched and winched off Snowdon by a sea king you tend to invest how you play.

That's my excuse anyway.

Diabolical

Bloody hell that's a blast from my past EBs.

Stanage edge, inverted V and Flying Buttress.

Myo

I've got my pitons, ice screws, runners, friends and even my dead man's plate out.

You'll know what all those are.

Agreed Myo

Our posts crossed then.

And I don't think an offer from another investor shall necessarily be a takeover.

I can not see any reason why another potential bidder would make themselves known at this stage with this unofficial offer from AA swirling around.

I'm expecting others to emerge from the shadows if 5.5p is confirmed by AA.

Lazerus

Well if AAL have got dark sunglasses on I'm wearing my welding mask.

Compass

If the deal is voted down what do you think the chances are of a) AA raising their offer and b) a rights issue being undertaken to raise the $600m to keep us going for a while?

I just hope I'm on a roll with my predictions as when Harry and Meghan got married I had a £50 bet with a friend of mine that within two years they would be living America.

My mate is trying to get out of it now by insisting I meant the USA and not Canada.

Steadygoes

I'll be voting against it too.

Fraser has to consider all options put to him at this stage and allow us shareholders to decide. How would we feel if he dismissed the likes of AA without consideration, went for a rights issue and it flopped only for us to lose everything. And then afterwards it emerged he had refused to even offer us a buyout at 5.5p?

We can't force others to lend us the money. Neither can we stop others from offering to buy us out and if they do for us to decide the offer price.

I may stand corrected but not many companies go into administration requiring money to keep afloat without going to the shareholders to try to raise what's required. That's our potential get out of jail card. Not a get out of jail free card but a get out of jail for $600m card.

We know it.

Fraser knows it.

Most importantly AA know it.

There's still a lot to play for here.

I just can't see this going to AA for 5.5p a share.

No

Not at 5.5p anyhow.

My gut feeling ffc is that our majority shareholders are going to refuse 5.5p and force that Rights Issue.

Can you imagine the situation we would now be in if Fraser had gone straight for a rights issue to raise $600m and it had failed and then we had to try to raise monies. If AA came forward after that and were the only interested party they would be offering us a lot less than 5.5p.

All of these things need to be considered objectively.

ffc

I have a fifth question / query also: if Fraser has been in cahoots with AA why was news of talks leaked?

I have no doubt in my mind this leak has come about through Sirius. You then have to read between the lines and question why what was revealed was revealed.

More money than anyone could want that should have read.

I don't buy this conspiracy theory about Fraser, but as with all things Sirius I am, and always have been, open to persuasion.

What doesn't stack up for me_:

1 - if Fraser has been orchestrating this drop in share price for the past approximate 18 months to aid AA why not hurry it along after the failure of the bonds by carrying on with construction as it was so money runs out quicker?

2 - why save money on such things as reducing the need for three TBMs etc?

3 - why not find or orchestrate a reason to increase the funds required so as to decimate the shate price even more for the benefit of AA?

4 - the biggest question for me. If Fraser had pulled off a successful fund raise he would have in ten years time - if all went to plan - more than anyone could want but more crucially the kudos of having built a mining leviathan off his own back

Lazerus

I'm sure if others had offered alternative rescue packages and had been turned down they would have made a point of making it public.