Member Info for 100notout

It has been mentioned that MA goes both long and short and in fairness I don't see him as a positive as the share price has only gone down since he has appeared on the register. We know his long position but what is his short or hedged position? Look at ASOS and BOO for examples.

I would say the hedge funds will be buying back as I don't really know where they will think the downside will come from. The cash burn from growing Ingenuity has gone and the debt is falling. A few more subsidiary sells which the market have placed little or no value and then MM should seriously consider some share buy backs. We should be in for an exciting 12 months and for a change shareholders will see a rising share price rather than a declining price. I mentioned a few months ago at 25p that we had reached the trough, now it's time to surf the wave upwards.

With regards to THG Ingenuity's 2nd UK autostore at Warrington it's doing rather well with a 25% performance boost over Manchester. It would appear that they have won external business which is a plus. If this new site continues to do well then it's quite plausible that others will open soon which can only be positive for THG.

If THG sell off Bentley Labs it would eliminate debt no doubt and would leave a company still worth between circa £1.7Bn - £2.1Bn and yet the current mkt cap is below £500m. With interest rates falling and an improving economy then it wouldn't surprise me to see take over offers appear, now MM has a hold on Ingenuity he may agree to sell at the right price which would be multiples of the current price. The price action is going to be interesting over the coming months with hedge funds scrambling to buy and the likelihood of MA increasing his stake. No doubt we will be getting a lot of FUD soon. I would wish all long termers luck but I don't think we will need it.

I don't think selling a large position is a problem but buying seems to be.

Bentley was purchased for £180m in 2021. I think that value must have increased a fair bit since Trumps tariffs, that would be a real game changer as other outside companies could have a manufacturer and developer within the US. I wouldn't want to put a price on it but I think you could safely say that if that was sold it would certainly eliminate THG's debt. Then the hedge funds would really have ants in their pants.

I think you have got some of your figures wrong James. ESPA was purchased for £68m not £7m and surely must be worth more than £100m now.

Another catalyst for a rising price is the amount of shares to be bought back by hedge funds. Didn't MM reckon it was 25% of the free float that were being shorted, that will be a great tail wind in lifting up the price. Surely they must be getting rather anxious especially with regards to the debt falling substantially in the last few months. If whey prices start to fall we will really be off to the races.

I reckon they are still in talks to sell off other subsidiary's, these talks can go on for awhile but I would be surprised if we don't see another RNS with regards to a sale within the next few months. This should propel the share price if good prices are achieved. This is probably why the directors haven't been buying shares because I'm sure they would if they could especially considering their purchases at much higher prices . The patient will be handsomely rewarded no doubt.

I think MM was right to reject Selkirk's bid as it was opportunist and £600m is short by at least £200m. The market has priced THG to fail but if there are more disposals and debt is eliminated then there will be a rapid reversal of the share price. I think MM wants revenge for the disruption from the Numis bankers. The hunted is now the hunter and he wants blood and as I'm a betting man my money is on MM.

The hedge funds would be wise to buy back now while they can as I can't see the share price staying at these levels for too long.

I doubt this is the last subsidiary to be sold off. Any guesses which could be the next one?

I would say ESPA has to be worth more than £100m, in fact he could sell a few subsidiary's off and be in a cash position and then you would hope to see a proper share price in triple digits.

A much better post from MM rather than dressing up as one of the Gallagher morons.

I have been say ing for some time something has been going on hence no director buys. I wonder if MM's comment means more disposals 'And yes, there are plenty more Numis “scripts” we’ll be addressing — in the fullness of time. 😉'

Great news at last selling a small part off for a quarter of the market cap.

The Selkirk proposal ascribed a headline value to Myprotein of £400m - £600m on a cash-free, debt-free basis. They could come back with a higher offer but I thought that they would have interest from much larger enterprises in the food/drink sector. There was little clarity to the offer of the bid as would THG's other companies be included in MP such as David Berryman, Claremont ingredients, brighter foods etc?

It wouldn't surprise me that the newly created companies could be set up for the division in order to sell off just MP, but who knows with MM as he is an unknown quantity.

Just group is another UK business to be taken over by a foreign company. It's because the UK valuations are out of kilter the UK listed company's are sitting ducks to be taken over. I am really surprised we haven't had a bid for either division. I know Selkirk put an opportunistic bid in for MP but surely a valuation for that would have to be £800m+. The current mkt cap of circa £420m is ridiculous and it's rather ironic that the major shorts are US hedge funds. It's reassuring to see some of the hedge funds shorting THG were shorting Just Group.

Why would THG want someone from Frasers to be on their Board? It hasn't worked wonders for BOO has it! Perhaps though if they were it would put MA in a precarious position with regards to his trading of THG shares....

I think we will be in for some news soon with regards to a sale of a division, most probably MP. They have created these new companies for some reason and under David Berryman to go under the radar.

Still no director buying is suspicious.

Regarding the FT wouldn't it be better practise to try and find potential news rather than looking through the accounts to tell us news that is available to all. Terminating a contract with a F1 team is hardly a big scoop. They always seem to want to pick out the negatives, what did they have to report about MP's growth in revenue....

It looks as though MM is not happy about Barclay's new appointment. Having said that I can't blame him.

THG paid £260m for Dermstore and £291m for Cult Beauty. Considering the current mkt cap is circa £400m what is the consensus here. Did THG pay too much for these companies or is the market completely undervaluing the business? Obviously the company has borrowings but Myprotein alone would more than cover that. Look at the brands they own like ESPA, Biossance, Christofe Robin etc and other bolt on acquisitions like Bentley labs (£180m), Brighter foods (£43m), Claremont Ingredients (61m) etc.

It would seem the share price is being held down for someone's benefit, but who?

Still no director purchases... How many of you have bought to reduce their averages in the 20's and 30's, so why haven't they!!!!

THG Ingenuity have just invested in automating Warrington. The installation is projected to deliver a 25% performance uplift, compared to THG Fulfil’s existing AutoStore build at its Icon 2 warehouse in Manchester, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and throughput capacity. I wonder if this extra handling volume is for THG or outside companies. Good news nevertheless.

Tariffs have been reduced from 150% to 75% for whisky. India is the largest whisky market in the world by volume, and Scotch has just 3% of that. Great news for Diageo. The problem for the Indian distillers is that they loose between 10% to 15% in evaporation per year in cask opposed to about 2% for Scotch Whisky's due to the climate.

The final ex dividend date is just over a month away. I wouldn't be surprised to see some funds buying before then. Diageo is a quality business with some world class leading brands and having a forward PE of circa 17 is far too low in my opinion. A fantastic long term hold.

Wetherspoon’s chairman Tim Martin said: “Draught volumes are performing strongly with Guinness being the standout performer. Surely this has to be good for Diageo. Spirits are doing well with whisky volumes up from pre pandemic levels. This has been way oversold.