Week ahead: US inflation watchers train sights on Jackson Hole

(ShareCast News) - After a week ahead of considerable stock market retreats, the important Jackson Hole central bank symposium will from Thursday provide the market with some enlightenment on the thinking of some key Federal Reserve figures, with plenty of economic data in the preceding days.After its effects on global markets has been so marked in the last fortnight, China will also be under great scrutiny for any further policy support steps from Beijing, alongside central bank fixings of the yuan and trading swings.Said Investec: "markets are likely to maintain a close watch on Chinese economic and currency related developments given the continuing swings in the Shanghai index, the recent yuan devaluation and knock on consequences for the likes of Emerging Market sentiment, also under pressure from Fed tightening speculation."There are second-quarter economic growth figures from the US on Thursday and the UK on Friday, following a GDP emission from ever efficient emission Germany on Tuesday.Inflation data is also due from German and Japan and economic confidence and business climate figures from the EU.All eyes on the HoleWith a central discussion topic of "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy", the gathering of Fed rate setters and global central bankers at the Wyoming mountain resort will be even more closely followed than usual.In previous years the annual symposium has acted as an important bellwether in terms of what the Federal Reserve and other central banks might do in the context of monetary policy, noted Michael Hewson of CMC Markets, "though this year it seems that markets are attaching less importance to it largely because of the absence of Fed chief Janet Yellen this year".He added: "This could well be a mistake given that the Fed has a dual mandate and it is missing its inflation target by a country mile, with the recent rise of the US dollar keeping inflation significantly subdued."The precise programme or attendee list is not released until the day of the conference itself, apart from Yellen's non attendance and the fact that Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer will speak.Investec added: "With the event taking place just a few weeks ahead of the 17 September FOMC [meeting announcement] amidst much discussion over whether rate lift-off could take place at this point, we are keen to see which other Fed representatives are set to speak and whether their words provide any further guidance on the prospect of a September hike."We suspect they may not, given Ms Yellen's non-attendance at the conference may be a ploy to avoid having to guide markets, too far ahead of time, on the chances of a September hike."US GDP should be revised higherOn US GDP, the consensus expectation is for second quarter growth to be revised up to 3.2%, from 2.3%, with inventories, consumption and public investment all stronger than originally estimated.Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics said that with such indications that GDP growth is likely to be higher than the Fed's June projection and the unemployment rate is likely to end the year even lower, he disagrees with the dovish reaction to the release of those minutes last week."Not only do we think that the Fed will raise rates in September, but there would appear to be a good chance of a second hike in December as well."The UK's growth is expected to show a 0.7% rise on the first quarter and a 2.6% increase on the second quarter last year, unchanged from the initial reading as industrial production and construction output data released since the preliminary estimate have not suggested that a revision is likely.UK corporate resultsOnly a small handful of FTSE 100 companies are scheduled to deliver results during the week.The blue chips are kicked off by Bunzl, which be expected to hit the 6% revenue growth mark for its first half as forecast at the time of its June.Tuesday sees the focus switch to natural resources, with final results from BHP Billiton and interims from Antofagasta.The consensus forecast for the Anglo-Australian giant is for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to hit $12.2bn, with results reported on a continuing operations basis excluding the divested South32 assets.RBC Capital Markets said results were expected to include a number of one-offs and impairments, while it added areas that may surprise include working capital, after first-half outflows, and expected $3bn-plus cost savings.As Antofagasta has already reported second-quarter production and costs, the consensus is confident of EBITDA of $594m and earnings per share of 8.9 cents per share. RBC also expects ANTO to provide an update on Antucoya and to turn cash positive at the end of the period, with a net cash balance of $242m.Wednesday sees WPP's half-year results, with a consensus forecast of 33.7p EPS, with a trading update in June having indicated that four-month like-for-like net sales were up 2.3%.Broker Numis forecasts 2.2% for the half, with the first quarter up 2.5% and the second 2.0%, ahead of a second half that faces easier comparatives from the year before.Thursday sees building materials group CRH report interims, with a note from Societe Generale pencilling in LFL sales growth increasing to 2.7% in from 2.5% over Jan-April 2015, driven by an improvement in Europe LFL sales growth."In America, we believe CRH will continue to benefit from the favourable construction environment, but the rains in May and June are likely to have some negative impact."The Bloomberg consensus estimate for EBITDA is €555m.Monday August 24INTERIMSAmlin, BATM Advanced Communications Ltd., FBD Holdings, Headlam Group, Industrial Mlulti Propety Trust , Kingspan GroupAGMSCEB Resources, Collagen Solutions, Northern BearFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEMountview EstatesTuesday August 25UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBBA Mortgage Lending Figures (09:30)IFO Current Assessment (GER) (09:30)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Confidence (US) (15:00)House Price Index (US) (15:00)IFO Business Climate (GER) (09:30)IFO Business Climate (GER) (09:00)IFO Current Assessment (GER) (09:00)IFO Expectations (GER) (09:30)IFO Expectations (GER) (09:00)New Homes Sales (US) (15:00)INTERIMSAFI Development, AL Noor Hospitals Group, Antofagasta, Capital Drilling Ltd. (DI), Fisher (James) & Sons, Gulf Marine Services, O'Key Group GDR (Reg S) (WI), PureTech Health , RegusINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEDewhurstQ2AFI DevelopmentGMS1pmFINALSBHP BillitonAGMS1pm, Acorn Income Fund Ld, Acorn Income Fund Ld, Blinkx, Blue Planet Investment Trust, Rensburg AIM VCTWednesday August 26UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)Services Producer Price IndexINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCrude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)INTERIMSAnglo Pacific Group, Bioquell, Cape, Carillion, Frontline Ld, HSS Hire Group , NMC Health, Optimal Payments Plc, Paddy Power, PJSC Magnit GDR (REG S), Skyepharma, Vimetco NV GDR (Reg S), WPPQ2Frontline Ld, MHP SA GDR (Reg S)GMSMotive TelevisionINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAberdeen UK Tracker TrustINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEFirst Quantum Minerals Ltd.AGMSCoral Products, Great Eastern Energy Corp Ltd. GDR, IGas Energy, Iomart Group, Latham (James), Livermore Investments Group Ltd., New Century AIM VCT, Ovoca Gold, Oxford Technology 2 VCT, Oxford Technology 3 VCT, Oxford Technology 4 Venture Capital Trust, Oxford Technology VCTThursday August 27INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSContinuing Claims (US) (13:30)GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)INTERIMSAldermore Group, Allied Minds , Amec Foster Wheeler, Arrow Global Group, Atlas Mara Limited (DI), Churchill China, CRH, Evraz, Grafton Group Units, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.(DI), Hansteen Holdings, Hunting, IFG Group, Irish Continental Group Units, John Laing Group , Lamprell, Lenta Ltd GDR (Each 5 Repr 1 Ord) (144A) , Macfarlane Group, Oxford Biomedica, Petropavlovsk, Playtech, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Public Power GDR SA (Reg S), Servelec Group , Signet Jewelers Ltd., STV Group, TCS Group Holding GDR (Each Repr 1 A Shr) (Reg S), The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited, XaarQ1, Q2Cairn Homes, Signet Jewelers Ltd.FINALSHaysINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEPolar Capital Global Financials TrustINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAcacia Mining, BlackRock World Mining Trust, British Smaller Companies VCT 2, Croda International, Devro, Henderson Group, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, InterContinental Hotels Group, Lancashire Holdings Limited, London Stock Exchange Group, Low & Bonar, LPA Group, Marshall Motor Holdings, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT, Mincon Group , Phoenix Group Holdings (DI), Polypipe Group , Rexam, Rights & Issues Inv Trust Income Shares, Robinson, Rotork, Stock Spirits Group , Ultra Electronics Holdings, Virgin Money Holdings (UK) , Wood Group (John)QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEAlpha Real Trust Ltd., Canaccord Genuity Group Inc., HICL Infrastructure Company Ltd, Imperial Tobacco Group, Premier Energy & Water Trust, Real Estate Credit Investments PCC LtdSPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAberforth Geared Income TrustSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEPremier Energy & Water TrustEGMSAseana Properties Ltd.AGMSAlbion Enterprise VCT, Globalworth Real Estate Investments Limited, Minera IRL Ltd., TP10 VCT , Trafalgar New HomesFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEBloomsbury Publishing, Carclo, Cohort, Dixons Carphone , Downing Four VCT DSO 'D' Shs, Fletcher King, Hazel Renewable Energy VCT 1, Hazel Renewable Energy VCT 2, NCC Group, Park Group, Safeland, Sepura, Stagecoach GroupFriday August 28UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSGDP second estimate (output, income & expenditure) (09:30)Index of Services (09:30)INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBalance of Payments (GER) (07:00)Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)Personal Income (US) (13:30)Personal Spending (US) (13:30)U. of Michigan Confidence (Final) (US) (14:45)INTERIMS888 Holdings, Bank Audi S.A.L. GDR (Repr 1'Com'Shr Lbp1650)(Reg S), BBGI SICAV S.A. (DI), British Polythene Industries, Bwin.party Digital Entertainment, Cathay International Holdings Ltd., Charles Taylor, Chesnara, Computacenter, Exova Group , Harworth Group, Henry Boot, Huntsworth, John Laing Infrastructure Fund Ltd, Joint Stock Company Rosseti GDR (Each Repr 200 Ord) Reg S, Kenmare Resources, Lavendon Group, Matomy Media Group Limited (DI) , MHP SA GDR (Reg S), Nord Gold NV GDR (Reg S), PJSC Centre For Cargo Container Traffic Transcontainer GDR (Reg S), PJSC RusHydro ADR , Restaurant Group, UTV MediaINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEEntu (UK) , Independent Inv Trust, Jupiter Fund Management , Kennedy Wilson Europe Real Estate , Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT, Maven Income and Growth VCT 5, Microgen, Nichols, Relx plcQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATECity of London Inv Trust, Ediston Property Investment Company, Picton Property Income LtdQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATECanadian General Investments Ltd.Q2Nord Gold NV GDR (Reg S), PJSC Centre For Cargo Container Traffic Transcontainer GDR (Reg S)ANNUAL REPORTRenishawAGMSBiofrontera AG (DI), Naspers Ltd. ADR, Phorm Corporation Ltd (DI), Stagecoach Group, The Fulham ShoreTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSComputacenterFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBilby, Blue Planet Investment Trust, GB Group, Halfords Group, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 2, Hayward Tyler Group, Latham (James), Northern Bear, Plastics Capital, TechFinancials (DI), UK Mail Group