Wednesday preview: Marks and Spencer, Supergroup, Wetherspoon

Wednesday has a strong clothing theme, with clothing outfits as diverse as Marks and Spencer, Supergroup and Burberry reporting.As broker Matrix Group observes, the insipid share price performance of Marks & Spencer (M&S) suggests that the market is expecting "a stinker of an update" but Matrix is of a more optimistic frame of mind; so optimistic, in fact, that it recently upgraded the shares from "hold" to "buy"."We forecast flat general merchandise LFL [like-for-like] sales and 3.0% food sales growth for Q1 [first quarter]," Matrix said. "The general merchandise number is likely to be a substantial improvement on the 3.9% decline reported in Q4, we believe. Our food sales growth forecast is supported by monthly Kantar food retail market share data. Like Debenhams and John Lewis, M&S has begun its summer sales early this year, so there is a slight risk of increased margin pressure from higher-than-expected markdowns, but as with Debenhams, we expect to come out of the Q1 announcement with our full-year forecasts intact, even if the manner of reaching them shifts from margin to top line," the broker added.Moving down the age scale, trendy clothing firm Supergroup is expected to announce profit before tax (PBT) of £49.6m on sales of £237.9m for the year to the end of April.Singer Capital Markets reckons that: "Although PBT should not vary from expectations, there is scope for further clarity on key issues, ranging from the strengthened management team, to cost allocation/disclosure of underlying divisional EBIT [earnIngs before interest and tax], and cotton price rises.""The recent set-back from delayed store openings and missing early demand for spring lines exposed shortcomings in SuperGroup's merchandising and supply chain capabilities as well as wider organisational growing pains," Singer noted.The broker said that after its recent site visit, its confidence in the future growth prospects of Supergroup has been reaffirmed. "We forecast £49.5m PBT for the year (consensus £49.6m), for 45.5p EPS (using 27% tax). We have tentatively pencilled in c£9m for central costs, implying c£35m Retail EBIT after reallocation, whilst we forecast c£23m Wholesale EBIT. We forecast £46.4m Y/E net cash including an £8m (+38%) increase in stock to £29.1m and after the CNC acquisition, which was part funded by cash (€7m) and part by equity (€21m rising to €33m based on earn out), but which is now almost 40% underwater," Singer said.Peel Hunt is a bit more optimistic, going for profit before tax of £50m, "reflecting strong growth across all channels"."The focus will be on recent trading, effectively meaning the three-week period since the investor day, a ridiculously short and unrepresentative period for any retailer," Peel Hunt warns."Against a high street in mark down and warm weather, such numbers may not impress. Any perceived weakness in UK trading may well lead to softening forecasts. Nonetheless, the potential for continued double-digit growth is not reflected in the share price and we believe online and overseas continue to outperform," the broker said. "The extent to which SuperGroup will provide the extensive data from the float and maiden results 12 months ago remains uncertain, although we expect online sales have more than doubled, with strong growth in retail and concessions, reflecting a significant step up in sales densities year-on-year," Peel Hunt added.Pubs group JD Wetherspoon issues an interim management statement covering the last 11 weeks. Panmure Gordon is predicting like-for-like sales growth of 2.8% year-on-year."Recent trading has seen top-line resilience at the expense of margins and we do not see this situation changing in the near term," the broker said.Peel Hunt believes trading has been buoyant. and predicts like-for-like sales growth of at least 3% for the 11-week period.Switching to economic data, labour market statistics are released, and Barclays Capital expects average earnings growth to have increased to 2.3% over the three month period from a year ago, from 1.8% last month, but forecasts core earnings growth will have fallen to 1.9% from 2.0%. "We expect claimant count unemployment to have risen by 14.9k in June and the ILO unemployment rate to have been unchanged at 7.7%," Barclays Capital added.INTERIMSCharlemagne Capital Ltd.INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEChemring Group, Dewhurst, Domino Printing Sciences, Holidaybreak, Safestore Holdings, ZytronicQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATESchroder Income Growth FundINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSIndustrial Production (JPN)Capacity Utilisation (JPN)Bank of Japan Monthly Economic ReportIndustrial Production (EU) (10:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00)FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)GMSCarr's Milling Industries, MWB Business Exchange, Origin EnterprisesFINALSDigital Marketing Group, SupergroupIMSSBurberry GroupAGMSAlbany Inv Trust, BT Group, IBIS Media VCT, ICAP, Lombard Risk Management, Marks & Spencer Group, Mitie Group, Sainsbury (J), Speedy Hire, Telecom Plus, UK Mail Group TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSJD WetherspoonUK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSClaimant Count Rate (09:30)Unemployment Rate (09:30)Average Weekly Earnings (09:30)ILO Unemployment Rate (09:30)FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEC&C Group, JPMorgan European Smaller Companies Trust , WhitbreadFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAmati VCT , Cropper (James), Empresaria Group, Establishment Inv Trust, FirstGroup, GB Group, Hornby, IBIS Media VCT, Intermediate Capital Group, Invesco Asia Trust, JPMorgan Brazil Inv Trust , Majestic Wine, Mountview Estate, Sepura, Telecom Plus, TP70 2008 (I) VCT, TP70 2008 (II) VCT, Ventus 2 VCT, Ventus VCT, Workspace GroupQ1ICAP, Marks & Spencer Group --jh