Recruiter PageGroup says Iran crisis clouds 2026 outlook

Tue, 14th Apr 2026 08:54

* Middle East conflict ⁠risks leading to hiring freezes and lower client confidence in region

* Weakness in France, Germany, and UK offsets growth in US and Asia Pacific

* RBC Capital analyst Karl Green warns ‌of continued uncertainty due to macro risks

April 14 (Reuters) - Recruiter PageGroup faces an increasingly ⁠uncertain outlook as the Middle East conflict has raised the ⁠risk of hiring freezes and caution over changing jobs, it said on Tuesday, sending shares to their lowest in nearly a decade.

The specialist in white-collar recruitment reported a 4.9% drop in first-quarter gross profit, marking its 13th consecutive quarter of declining fees, as ‌weakness in its biggest markets, France and Germany, outweighed growth in the U.S. and Asia Pacific.

A surge in oil prices and disruption of freight since U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February began a wider conflict, together with the impact of artificial intelligence on hiring, have delayed recruitment decisions.

Many people have also become more cautious about changing jobs, especially when salary offers are not ‌high enough to tempt them.

"Salary levels remain strong, although the level of increases offered to candidates were not as elevated as they were in ‌2022 and early 2023 and, as a consequence, the conversion of offers to placements remained the most significant challenge," the company said.

Shares dropped as much as 6% in early trade before reversing course to trade marginally higher by 0746 GMT.

LACK OF CONFIDENCE IS LIKELY OVER THE COMING QUARTERS

PageGroup posted group gross profit ‌of 187 million pounds ($252.71 million) for the quarter ended March 31, down from 194.5 million pounds a year ago.

The owner of the Page Executive and Michael Page brands said gross profit in its ⁠Middle East ⁠business fell 12% in the quarter.

Europe, Middle East and Africa is ‌the group's largest business division, accounting for more than half of the group's gross profit, with France and Germany contributing the biggest share.

"With macro worries around Iran, private credit and key elections, we foresee ongoing wobbliness in ‌confidence in coming quarters," RBC Capital analyst Karl Green said in a note.

Peers Robert Walters and Hays will release quarterly updates later this week.