LIVE MARKETS-Time machine challenge: Greggs versus FAANGS

* European shares recover to flat

* Iran missile strike, weak German factory data weigh

* NMC Health tanks after investors sell stake
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters and anchored today by Joice Alves. Reach her on Messenger to share your
thoughts on market moves: joice.alves.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

TIME MACHINE CHALLENGE: GREGGS VERSUS FAANGS (1155 GMT)

The market shows no sign of losing appetite for Greggs' vegan sausage rolls and meat-free
steak bakes.

Some profit taking was expected after the British baker's upbeat trading update.

Analysts were also wondering prior to the open whether the new (somehow unlikely?) hype for
its budget comfort-food innovative offering was now finally fully priced in.

"With the company now valued at £2.4bn, is all the future growth fully baked in?", asked
Neil Wilson at Markets.com.

The first answer seemed to be a yes when the stock fell at the open, but it now feels like a
'probably not' with a 0.5% rise after a nice rebound.

Of course, many investors now wish they had invested prior to the media frenzy that followed
the launch of the vegan sausage roll in early 2019.

The fear they missed out is somewhat comparable to what investors felt for the FAANGS, which
spearheaded the 2010s bull market.

Actually, if you had a time travel machine and could go back to 2012 when Facebook, Amazon,
Apple, Netflix, Google were listed, little Greggs was actually not a poor choice.

With a rise of 327%, versus 294% for Apple or 364% for Google, the British baker stands the
comparison even though Netflix's stellar rise of over 3000% dwarfs them all.

Still, shall we now add a G to that FAANGG(Greggs)s?

Here's the story:

UPDATE 2-Greggs staff to cash in on UK vegan sausage roll success

And here's our chart:

Here's another one showing Greggs' share price evolution during the last 20 years and a
spectacular 1000% plus jump over the period.

Time to jump in that time travel machine?

(Julien Ponthus and Ritvik Carvalho)

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BANKS AND OIL: POSITIVE CORRELATION (1117 GMT)

The renewed tensions in the Middle East have lifted Brent prices back above $70 a barrel for
the first time since the September attacks on the Saudi oil facilities and on the stock market,
energy stocks have been the most obvious beneficiaries.

But there are others, namely banking stocks, that could gain from the rising crude.

The battered sector has been struggling for more than a decade, weighed down by ultra low
rates and adverse regulation, but it could be set for a revival as its valuations are cheap and
signs emerge that macro conditions are bottoming out.

Now, it seems, the rise in crude price could be the cherry on the cake for those looking
into the sector.

UBS has spotted the positive correlation.

"One of the side effects (of the rise in oil prices) is the secondary impact on inflation
expectations, through to interest-rate expectations and, finally, the performance of the banks",
strategists at the Swiss bank led by Nick Nelson say.

"The current bounce back in the 5yr 5yr inflation swap points to the possibility of further
near-term outperformance by the banks," they add.

(Danilo Masoni)

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NMC HEALTH: BUYING THE DIP VERSUS SELLING THE CRASH (0903 GMT)

There's two ways of looking at this morning's crash in NMC Health after two key shareholders
sold stakes at 1,200 pence per share versus Tuesday's close of 1,494 pence.

Glass half empty: "OMG the stock is crashing from the close!

Glass half full: "OMG the stock is trading way above the 1,200 pence sell price!"

There has been wild swings but at 0902 GMT, NMC Health shares were trading down 16% at 1,255
pence.

Anyhow, however you might be inclined to look at it, NMC Health has lost over half of its
value (that's over 2 billion pounds) since Muddy Waters questioned the company's finances two
weeks ago.

So basically, the 1,200 pence tag now clearly seems to indicate the price at which investors
are ready to buy the dip.

We expect an updated story soon but in the meantime check out: Investors sell shares worth
$490 mln in troubled NMC Health

Here's the chart:

(Julien Ponthus)

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OPENING SNAPSHOT: RUNNING AWAY FROM RISKY ASSETS (0845 GMT)

European shares slip 0.5% as tensions in the Middle East are back on the table after Iran
retaliated by launching missile strikes at U.S. forces in Iraq prompting investors to walk away
from risky assets.

The pan European index is down 0.5% and Britain's blue-chip index dipped
0.6%. The chemical sector is the worst performer, while oil and gas stocks rose
tracking higher crude prices on the prospect of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

NMC Health slumped 18% and Finablr 12% after major shareholders of the two
firms sold stakes. Finablr's unit Travelex also separately confirmed it was hit by a software
virus attack. and

Here is your open snapshot of European bourses:

(Joice Alves)

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ON OUR RADAR: RETAILERS, AIRLINES AND MANUFACTURERS (0800)

Futures point to a lower open this morning after Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces in Iraq
last evening and investors fear a wider conflict in the region.

Airlines are expected to be under pressure not only because strikes send oil prices through
the roof but also because an Ukrainian airliner crashed earlier this morning after taking off
in Iran, killing all 176 aboard.

The manufacturing sector will also be under the spotlight as investors will be digesting
data released this morning showing that German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in November
on weak foreign demand, suggesting that a manufacturing slump will continue to hamper overall
growth in Europe's largest economy.

In terms of single stocks, Sainsbury's shares seen under pressure after Britain's
No. 2 supermarket group reported a small fall in underlying sales in the Christmas quarter, hurt
by a weak performance from general merchandise.

Staying in the UK, good news from baker and takeaway food group Greggs, which said
its annual profit would be higher than expected and it would make a special bonus payment to
staff to reflect an "exceptional year".

One trader sees Finablr's shares down 15% a two main shareholders are selling down $75m
worth of shares, to pay down debt. Meanwhile, the company's foreign exchange firm Travelex
confirmed that a software virus that forced it to take its systems offline at the end of
December was a ransomware known as Sodinokibi.

NMC Health still on our radar, as two investors are selling shares worth 374 million
pounds ($490 million) in the healthcare group, a bookrunner for the deal said yesterday, weeks
after short-selling firm Muddy Waters questioned the company's finances.

More on the retail front: Alibaba, through its European platform AliExpress, has approached
European brands including Mango, Benetton and Spanish fashion group Tendam, owner of Cortefiel,
to appear on the site with limited success, Reuters reported.

Other interesting headlines:

- Alstom signs a refurbish contract in UK for 755 mln euros

- U.S. wine industry fears 'Armageddon of costs' from tariffs on French imports

- Barclays pressured by shareholders to cut fossil fuel financing

- Covivio sells offices and shopping malls in Italy for 162 mln euros

- Italy's antitrust probes nine top soccer clubs over unfair ticket conditions

(Joice Alves)

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BOURSES SEEN LOWER AFTER IRAN STRIKES (0641 GMT)

European bourses are expected to open in negative territory this morning after Iran fired
missiles at U.S. forces in Iraq, sharply lifting oil prices as investors fear a wider war in the
Middle East.

Events across the region are keeping investors busy this week: European shares had a little
rally yesterday, after two days of declines, when investors thought Iran wouldn't act in
retaliation for the U.S. drone strike on an Iranian commander. Well, that is a remote past
already.

Iran fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles against at least two Iraqi facilities
hosting U.S.-led coalition personnel at about 2230 GMT last evening.

The next chapter of the saga will be watching Trump's reaction.

Meantime, financial spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open 28 points lower at
7,546, Frankfurt's DAX to open 90 points lower at 13,137 and Paris' CAC to open 20 points lower
at 5,993.

(Joice Alves)

*****

(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju Adinarayan)

Greggs

Sainsbury's